UN Venezuela Megathread - Mercenaries 2 references galore! Cubanodun is MVP

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Real talk. Who gives a shit about Vuvuzeula?

Close the borders and let the South Americans deal with their shit. No reason for the US to get involved. There's absolutely no plus side to America jumping into that shithole. When the US installed leader inevitably gets toppled, we'll be left with a deranged population that despises America.
 
Real talk. Who gives a shit about Vuvuzeula?

Close the borders and let the South Americans deal with their shit. No reason for the US to get involved. There's absolutely no plus side to America jumping into that shithole. When the US installed leader inevitably gets toppled, we'll be left with a deranged population that despises America.
The current Venezuelan government is allowing the Chinese and Russians to use them as a military base and keep nuclear bombers on standby in our own backyard.
 
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No reason for the US to get involved.
Oil Dude. Their reserves really matter when we are talking the price of a barrel. They are important to the stability (perceived or lack thereof) of the Oil markets, and the prices you pay not only at the pump, but for food. It matters that the country doesn't become a Libya, which it probably would if Clinton were president.
 
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Don't know if late, but the US Government has announced it will not be closing its Embassy in caracas, claiming Maduro does not have the authority to order such a closure.

In case its not obvious, that is a very big deal. The US is now openly defying the ruling regime in a foreign country, on its own soil. Maduro HAS to get the US to leave now, or else he is not illegitimate, and has no power.
 
There was an article specifically talking about it a couple years ago, but I can't seem to find it, here is what I currently have. There's a lot of fluff so I'll just post what I think is relevant.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezuelans-regret-gun-prohibition-we-could-have-defended-ourselves
Under the direction of then-President Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan National Assembly in 2012 enacted the “Control of Arms, Munitions and Disarmament Law,” with the explicit aim to “disarm all citizens.” The law took effect in 2013, with only minimal pushback from some pro-democracy opposition figures, banned the legal commercial sale of guns and munitions to all - except government entities...

Chavez initially ran a months-long amnesty program encouraging Venezuelans to trade their arms for electrical goods. That year, there were only 37 recorded voluntary gun surrenders, while the majority of seizures - more than 12,500 – were by force...

Much of the crime has been attributed by analysts to government-backed gangs – referred to in Spanish as “collectivos” – who were deliberately put in place by the government.

“They were set up by the government to act as proxies and exert community control. They're the guys on the motorcycles in the poor neighborhoods, who killed any protesters,” said Vanessa Neumann, the Venezuelan-American president and founder of Asymmetrica, a Washington, D.C.-based political risk research and consulting firm. “The gun reform policy of the government was about social control. As the citizenry got more desperate and hungry and angry with the political situation, they did not want them to be able to defend themselves. It was not about security; it was about a monopoly on violence and social control.”

So while Venezuelan citizens were stripped of their legal recourse to bear arms, the “collectivos” – established by Chavez when came to power – were legally locked and loaded. Deemed crucial to the survival of the socialist dictatorship, the “collectivos” function to brutally subjugate opposition groups, while saving some face as they aren’t officially government forces, critics contend...

https://freebeacon.com/issues/socia...porters-outlawing-confiscating-civilian-guns/
Maduro plans to arm 400,000 supporters amid protests and unrest

The socialist leader of Venezuela announced in a speech to regime loyalists his plan to arm hundreds of thousands of supporters after a years-long campaign to confiscate civilian-owned guns.

"A gun for every militiaman!" Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro said to uniformed militia members outside the presidential palace, Fox News reported on Tuesday. The Bolivarian militias, created by Maduro's predecessor Hugo Chavez, already number in the hundreds of thousands and are being used to supplement the regime's armed forces. Maduro is boosting the number of armed supporters in hopes of keeping control over the country from what he labels "imperialist aggression."

The arming of Maduro's supporters comes five years after Venezuela's socialist regime outlawed the commercial sale and civilian ownership of firearms. Only the military, police, and groups like security companies can buy guns and only directly from one state-run arms company under the law passed in 2012, according to the BBC. The country recently doubled down on its gun ban through a combination of gun buybacks and confiscations in the summer of 2016.

So we have 400,000 people [at least] getting guns 5 years after a gun ban, and the government handing out the guns has no means to manufacture them or buy them, since they don't have the tools or resources to make them, nor the money to buy them, not to mention the arms embargo imposed by the US/NATO/OAS.

To make it a little more clear, here are some of the "militiamen."
venezuela.png

Some civilian (probably export Imbel) FAL knockoff, doesn't even have a magazine.

TOPSHOT-VENEZUELA-POLITIC057193.jpg

Literally carrying shitty milsurp Mosins

20170426_maduro.jpg

Here's the BMOC himself inspecting a militiaman's AR-15

The point is that these militias are disorganized, grabastic groups of thugs that are being armed by the government with any firearms they have available. There is very little uniformity other than the prevalence of what are obviously repurposed civilian firearms and old ass military surplus that at one point were probably in a crate in the back of a civilian gun store. I am not saying that militaries don't keep old equipment in reserve, but they definitely don't keep these relics and civilian pattern firearms in armories. This is the equivalent of Uncle Sam handing out M1 Garands and Springfield M1903s.

Looking at the firearms variety you tend to suspect that the main sourcing, other than ancient long mothballed army gear, comes from the Cartels. It looks like civilianized stuff that gets smuggled from US gun shops. And Venezuela clearly gets the shit tier stuff that the cartels don’t want for themselves.
 
https://twitter.com/woke8yearold/status/1088486419595698177

I've been seeing a lot of right wingers speaking out against this on the basis that it will turn into another libya/syria/iraq/afghanistan situation.
There's also a lot of speculation as to how much the US/CIA had a role in the economic collapse

The economic collapse had nothing to do with the CIA. It was a watershed moment. Oil is 95% of Venezuelan exports and makes up 25% of the Venezuelan GDP. What that means is that 95% of the "hard cash" i.e dollars, yen, and Euros, the things people will actually accept in trade, is oil money. Venezuela was a socialist paradise for a long time because oil prices were massively inflated, and they used literally all of that hard cash to import things to make the lives of their average citizen better. Also, gasoline was HEAVILY subsidized. The average cost of gas in Venezuela was the equivalent of $0.03-$0.05/US gal. Because of the sky high oil prices, US companies decided to research cheaper and more efficient extraction processes, which made oil cheaper to pull out of the ground, and allowed US companies to revisit previously sealed wells to extract billions of barrels of previously unobtainable oil. The US was (and still is) on track to become energy independent within a decade, which spooked OPEC countries in the Middle East. In response, OPEC, specifically Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, decided to out compete the emerging US energy companies with this fancy new technology, by pushing their 100 year old rigs to the absolute limit. Now, American technology is extremely impressive, but unfortunately, the capital required to build these new rigs with this new tech is absurd, and in order for startups to be profitable in the US, oil has to be above roughly $55/bbl, whereas the Saudis are turning a profit at anything above $14/bbl. Now, because of the immense amount of fiscal reliance Venezuela was putting on their oil industry, they NEEDED oil to be above about $70/bbl, otherwise they wouldn't be able to subsidize gasoline, import consumer goods, or pay the salaries of their bloated public sector. So, when the Saudis started selling oil at $20/bbl, oil dropped like a rock, from $111/bbl in June 2014 to $51/bbl in January of 2015. It continued to collapse until it totally bottomed out at $35/bbl in January of 2016. In response the US and Canadian governments heavily subsidized new fracking and shale oil ventures, which prevented many North American companies from closing shop. Basically, we had an oil price war with the Middle East members of OPEC for almost 3 years, in which the US and Canadian governments spent absurd amounts of money to support startup operations. The reason this matters is because the entire time this was going on, Venezuela was essentially selling oil at a loss, but refused to cut back on their socialist programs based on faith that one side would win out and the oil market would rebound, after all, they had stockpiled billions of dollars and euros. Fast forward 2 years and there are absolutely no more dollars or euros in Venezuela, and not a single motherfucker on Earth wants their Bolivars. They cannot find a single creditor on the planet to lend them enough money to support their programs, so they all get axed. No more consumer goods, no more wheat, no more beef, no more corn, no more gas. Now, as proof God exists and has a sense of humor, one of the massive public works projects Chavez was responsible for, was one of the largest hydro plants in the world. Hydro power accounts for ~64% of electricity in Venezuela, Venezuela produces ~2% of the global total of hydro power. Well, right in the middle of the fucking crisis, Venezuela is hit with one of the worst droughts in their history, and it lasts for years. In order to preserve drinking and irrigation water in their reservoirs, Maduro orders the dams shut down. For years Venezuela is rocked by rolling brownouts across the entire country. Some major population centers get power maybe 6 hours a day, if they're lucky. Major oil refineries don't have the power to process crude, so gas goes from being expensive to impossible to find, which paralyzes both national transportation and logistics, as well as one of the only ways for the government to get any cash flow.

Fast forward to today, and you have a country on the brink of literal anarchy.
 
Don't know if late, but the US Government has announced it will not be closing its Embassy in caracas, claiming Maduro does not have the authority to order such a closure.

In case its not obvious, that is a very big deal. The US is now openly defying the ruling regime in a foreign country, on its own soil. Maduro HAS to get the US to leave now, or else he is not illegitimate, and has no power.

It also creates a tripwire for Military Action. If Maduro moves to seize the embassy, that’s an act of war. Which will be met in kind. It would also create waves of ripples in the Diplomatic world. While unlikely to put actual boots on the ground, beyond special ops types. The US would engage in some precision strikes ala Reagan and Libya. To politely remind Maduro how this all works.
 
Looking at the firearms variety you tend to suspect that the main sourcing, other than ancient long mothballed army gear, comes from the Cartels. It looks like civilianized stuff that gets smuggled from US gun shops. And Venezuela clearly gets the shit tier stuff that the cartels don’t want for themselves.

The Imbel FALs are from Brazil, no doubt, but that shitty DPMS AR Maduro is holding is no doubt from a gun store in the US.
 
CHAVEZJeremy47800082-500x375.jpg


Corbyn is in a bad spot.

Real talk. Who gives a shit about Vuvuzeula?

Close the borders and let the South Americans deal with their shit. No reason for the US to get involved. There's absolutely no plus side to America jumping into that shithole. When the US installed leader inevitably gets toppled, we'll be left with a deranged population that despises America.

Who cares about the 2nd largest oil producer?
 
It also creates a tripwire for Military Action. If Maduro moves to seize the embassy, that’s an act of war. Which will be met in kind. It would also create waves of ripples in the Diplomatic world. While unlikely to put actual boots on the ground, beyond special ops types. The US would engage in some precision strikes ala Reagan and Libya. To politely remind Maduro how this all works.

I would assume the Embassy also has a Marine Corps detachment, and there is almost certainly a warship or two nearby somewhere. Trying to force the Embassy would almost certainly result in a battle, especially if the Navy is ordered to defend the flag pole. Maduro has to know this too, so he may opt for the lesser option of besieging the compound. This would make him look like a cuck though, and the next US move would be to try and fly in supplies.
 
The economic collapse had nothing to do with the CIA. It was a watershed moment. Oil is 95% of Venezuelan exports and makes up 25% of the Venezuelan GDP. What that means is that 95% of the "hard cash" i.e dollars, yen, and Euros, the things people will actually accept in trade, is oil money. Venezuela was a socialist paradise for a long time because oil prices were massively inflated, and they used literally all of that hard cash to import things to make the lives of their average citizen better. Also, gasoline was HEAVILY subsidized. The average cost of gas in Venezuela was the equivalent of $0.03-$0.05/US gal. Because of the sky high oil prices, US companies decided to research cheaper and more efficient extraction processes, which made oil cheaper to pull out of the ground, and allowed US companies to revisit previously sealed wells to extract billions of barrels of previously unobtainable oil. The US was (and still is) on track to become energy independent within a decade, which spooked OPEC countries in the Middle East. In response, OPEC, specifically Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, decided to out compete the emerging US energy companies with this fancy new technology, by pushing their 100 year old rigs to the absolute limit. Now, American technology is extremely impressive, but unfortunately, the capital required to build these new rigs with this new tech is absurd, and in order for startups to be profitable in the US, oil has to be above roughly $55/bbl, whereas the Saudis are turning a profit at anything above $14/bbl. Now, because of the immense amount of fiscal reliance Venezuela was putting on their oil industry, they NEEDED oil to be above about $70/bbl, otherwise they wouldn't be able to subsidize gasoline, import consumer goods, or pay the salaries of their bloated public sector. So, when the Saudis started selling oil at $20/bbl, oil dropped like a rock, from $111/bbl in June 2014 to $51/bbl in January of 2015. It continued to collapse until it totally bottomed out at $35/bbl in January of 2016. In response the US and Canadian governments heavily subsidized new fracking and shale oil ventures, which prevented many North American companies from closing shop. Basically, we had an oil price war with the Middle East members of OPEC for almost 3 years, in which the US and Canadian governments spent absurd amounts of money to support startup operations. The reason this matters is because the entire time this was going on, Venezuela was essentially selling oil at a loss, but refused to cut back on their socialist programs based on faith that one side would win out and the oil market would rebound, after all, they had stockpiled billions of dollars and euros. Fast forward 2 years and there are absolutely no more dollars or euros in Venezuela, and not a single motherfucker on Earth wants their Bolivars. They cannot find a single creditor on the planet to lend them enough money to support their programs, so they all get axed. No more consumer goods, no more wheat, no more beef, no more corn, no more gas. Now, as proof God exists and has a sense of humor, one of the massive public works projects Chavez was responsible for, was one of the largest hydro plants in the world. Hydro power accounts for ~64% of electricity in Venezuela, Venezuela produces ~2% of the global total of hydro power. Well, right in the middle of the fucking crisis, Venezuela is hit with one of the worst droughts in their history, and it lasts for years. In order to preserve drinking and irrigation water in their reservoirs, Maduro orders the dams shut down. For years Venezuela is rocked by rolling brownouts across the entire country. Some major population centers get power maybe 6 hours a day, if they're lucky. Major oil refineries don't have the power to process crude, so gas goes from being expensive to impossible to find, which paralyzes both national transportation and logistics, as well as one of the only ways for the government to get any cash flow.

Fast forward to today, and you have a country on the brink of literal anarchy.

That’s a great overview. Although there are a few other subtleties in play.

Saudi Arabia is an interesting one to watch carefully. They have the potential to implode in a manner similar to Venezuela. Yes in terms of raw production costs, their wells are profitable at anything above $14/ bbl orso. But like Venezuela they underwrite their entire economy and Social Welfare system on oil money. In order for Saudi Arabia to meet it’s social promises it needs oil prices above $44-48/bbl. Anything below that and they are drawing down their treasury to pay off the populace. Fracking and new extraction methods need $51/bbl to be profitable without subsidies. That’s a very narrow margin. Enough that Fracking etc becomes the better option at the point where the Saudi’s are at break even, once when you factor in the desired NationalEnergy Independence. Asking your nation to pay 3x the cheapest prices to be independent is a hard sell. Asking then to pay an extra 5% to not deal with Venezuela or the Gret Middle Eastern Cat Box is an easy sell.

And the other problem with Venezuela is not simply the drop in oil prices. It is the loss in customers. As the US, Canada and even Mexico have shifted to greater internal production, it means they aren’t buying Venezuela’s output. Back during Chavez’s infamous Brimstone comments to George Bush, the US was still buying up to 30% of Venezuela’s output. Not so much today. And the US is now exporting Natural Gas. Including to many of Venezuela’s prime customers, such as China. It leaves Venezuelan crude as something of a buyers market. Competing customers are no longer driving up the prices. China can write whatever terms it wishes. Plus after years of crazy growth, China’s energy demand appears to have plateaued. It isn’t increasing annually they way it used to. This is very bad news for Venezuela. Unless the rest of South America suddenly kicks off a China style industrial growth spurt the future looks bleak for Venezuelan oil.
 
https://twitter.com/woke8yearold/status/1088486419595698177

I've been seeing a lot of right wingers speaking out against this on the basis that it will turn into another libya/syria/iraq/afghanistan situation.
There's also a lot of speculation as to how much the US/CIA had a role in the economic collapse

The economic collapse had nothing to do with the CIA. It was a watershed moment. Oil is 95% of Venezuelan exports and makes up 25% of the Venezuelan GDP. What that means is that 95% of the "hard cash" i.e dollars, yen, and Euros, the things people will actually accept in trade, is oil money. Venezuela was a socialist paradise for a long time because oil prices were massively inflated, and they used literally all of that hard cash to import things to make the lives of their average citizen better. Also, gasoline was HEAVILY subsidized. The average cost of gas in Venezuela was the equivalent of $0.03-$0.05/US gal. Because of the sky high oil prices, US companies decided to research cheaper and more efficient extraction processes, which made oil cheaper to pull out of the ground, and allowed US companies to revisit previously sealed wells to extract billions of barrels of previously unobtainable oil. The US was (and still is) on track to become energy independent within a decade, which spooked OPEC countries in the Middle East. In response, OPEC, specifically Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, decided to out compete the emerging US energy companies with this fancy new technology, by pushing their 100 year old rigs to the absolute limit. Now, American technology is extremely impressive, but unfortunately, the capital required to build these new rigs with this new tech is absurd, and in order for startups to be profitable in the US, oil has to be above roughly $55/bbl, whereas the Saudis are turning a profit at anything above $14/bbl. Now, because of the immense amount of fiscal reliance Venezuela was putting on their oil industry, they NEEDED oil to be above about $70/bbl, otherwise they wouldn't be able to subsidize gasoline, import consumer goods, or pay the salaries of their bloated public sector. So, when the Saudis started selling oil at $20/bbl, oil dropped like a rock, from $111/bbl in June 2014 to $51/bbl in January of 2015. It continued to collapse until it totally bottomed out at $35/bbl in January of 2016. In response the US and Canadian governments heavily subsidized new fracking and shale oil ventures, which prevented many North American companies from closing shop. Basically, we had an oil price war with the Middle East members of OPEC for almost 3 years, in which the US and Canadian governments spent absurd amounts of money to support startup operations. The reason this matters is because the entire time this was going on, Venezuela was essentially selling oil at a loss, but refused to cut back on their socialist programs based on faith that one side would win out and the oil market would rebound, after all, they had stockpiled billions of dollars and euros. Fast forward 2 years and there are absolutely no more dollars or euros in Venezuela, and not a single motherfucker on Earth wants their Bolivars. They cannot find a single creditor on the planet to lend them enough money to support their programs, so they all get axed. No more consumer goods, no more wheat, no more beef, no more corn, no more gas. Now, as proof God exists and has a sense of humor, one of the massive public works projects Chavez was responsible for, was one of the largest hydro plants in the world. Hydro power accounts for ~64% of electricity in Venezuela, Venezuela produces ~2% of the global total of hydro power. Well, right in the middle of the fucking crisis, Venezuela is hit with one of the worst droughts in their history, and it lasts for years. In order to preserve drinking and irrigation water in their reservoirs, Maduro orders the dams shut down. For years Venezuela is rocked by rolling brownouts across the entire country. Some major population centers get power maybe 6 hours a day, if they're lucky. Major oil refineries don't have the power to process crude, so gas goes from being expensive to impossible to find, which paralyzes both national transportation and logistics, as well as one of the only ways for the government to get any cash flow.

Fast forward to today, and you have a country on the brink of literal anarchy.

It should also be noted that their social spending included heavily subsidized food in grocery stores. This meant they had to source the food as cheaply as possible, so they imported a shit ton of cheap wheat, beans, veggies and meat from...you guessed it, the United States. Again, not our fault. We were selling, and they were buying. But it also meant that Chavez and later Maduro absolutely eviscerated their domestic agriculture industry which didn't have a prayer of competing with the cheap food the venezuelan government was dumping on the market. Fast foreword to today and not only can the Venezuelan Government no longer afford to buy US Wheat, they also don't have a domestic agriculture industry to fall back on. So now there is no food on top of no toilet paper.
 
Maduro is a dumbass - he should have resigned a long time ago. That way he could at least get back into office years later if the new pro-American liberal government screws up, a-la Daniel Ortega. Instead, it seems he just wants to end up like Salvador Allende.
 
Honestly I hope it ends in intervention. A civil war would just leave a giant power vacuum ripe for corruption or terrorism influence. On a more selfish note intervention would mean deployment pay for me. I guess everyone wins when Americans invade you. /sneed
 
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