And I just tell them "they're using pipettes",
This made me laugh out loud earlier when I read it.
I mean. Aside from the protocol saying that the test had to be caught out of the sealed bag, once there's lines on the thing it should be obvious it can't be reused...
You’ll get someone sneakily washing one...
But the percentage of positive samples out of total tested samples is 3.50%, which in turns seems to be comparatively very low
All of Eastern Europe seems to have low rates just now.
My theory: There seems to have been a short period of time where the infection was seeded explosively and amplified in very specific areas. In Italy it was ski resorts. In the UK that was entry via Heathrow, and things like the Cheltenham (horse racing) festival. In sweden you see Stockholm hit hard but other cities which you’d think would be hit not doing as badly. My contact there says that each region has a slightly differently timed late winter sport break in Feb, like our half term break. Stockholm’s break coincided with the peak of transmission in the italian alp ski resorts. Other cities has theirs a week or two earlier and I think have had fewer of those initial seeding events.
What that says to me is that this may actually be less transmissible under some circumstances. We seem to be seeing areas which had travel during that critical late jan/mid Feb period hit the hardest. Eastern Europe may just have been lucky, or it may not have been as connected somehow during that critical period. Either way, fewer initial seeding cases got there during that period and then they shut down hard.
So I think what we are seeing is social distancing, Stopping mass gatherings and a few restrictions is enough to put the brakes on this thing. Lockdowns were not needed. I can understand why Italy did it, they were in a mess. But everywhere else, I will bet you that it’ll turn out to be a minor effect only. Stopping mass gatherings and basic hygiene/distancing will be the big ones.
It does raise the spectre of later infections in countries with low initial spread - i suspect this is one reason why Africa hasn’t been a hotbed so far. They’ve just not had that critical mass of travel to areas which were centres of infection during that critical period
I think it was
@RodgerDodger a few pages back who said that they didn’t expect the route into America to be via Italy. Over here it’s more obvious in retrospect, because of that half term break where middle class families get package deals to the alps, but I wouldnt have flagged alpine resorts as being the amplification point for a virus from China at all.
I guess it shows how small areas can be huge drivers of infection. It’s going to be fascinating to retrace it all once it’s over.