You say that, but from what other people in thread have been saying about potential replacements for Pooh bear, that might be a possibility. Xi gets ousted after the monumental fuck up of a disaster response, there are several more hawkish leaders that could take their own chunks of land and PLA and make their claims if this goes worst case scenario. I will take my optimistic ratings now.
There's a very real chance WARS could lead to the downfall of the CCP.
The economic damage of SARS was measured in the billions, it had an effect felt across the world. WARS, by all credible accounts, is far more lethal. They've had to shut down an entire province to contain it, and Wuhan itself has been described as the Chicago of China.
What is the impact to China's economy going to be? Their economy has been slowing down, even with the best lies the CCP had to offer they were only able to claim 6% growth this year. And now there's this massive disruption, this Black Swan event, which has the potential for a high mortality rate. Can the party actually afford this kind of disruption? For that matter, what happens if the West finally stands up to them?
China's power structure depends on the party being able to provide improvements to the quality of life to a very large set of people. When those stop, the propaganda stops working. In a very real sense, this structure depends on being able to import technology from the rest of the world and implement it effectively within their own industries.
Here's a story about one of those recent imports. It would be a step too far to suggest this is what lead to WARS, or that it's even the identical pathogen. But it certainly raises a question about why they are trying to acquire these kinds of pathogens. Corona Viruses are akin to the common cold, they are incredibly infectious and there is no known cure. Various countries in the West have established biosafety labs - BSLs - to study these things in a secure fashion designed to prevent outbreaks and hopefully lead to cures. Knowing that system is now broken is a major concern for the entire world, and will cause people to look closely at those tech transfer relationships. This is a national security issue for every country on Earth when China "takes" your weapons and doesn't know how to handle them.
Without the West, or with strong tech transfer protections, China loses its economy. Xi Xinpeng's claim to ruler for life status becomes less solid. The people who could replace him are mostly war hawks, it's hard to imagine them pursuing Belt and Road when they can annex entire countries to put them solidly under CCP control. A failing economy means soul searching for the CCP, in a country that demands strong leadership as the only claim to power. A conflict between 2 sides in the party - like an actual debate held over time - would be completely alien to Chinese politics. Were leaders to be openly questioning the direction of the country, it could lead to mass violence and destruction of the current social order.
This would be very bad for all parties.
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