World Economic crisis 2016

CRUCIAL DANGER SITUATION

Apparently the world is entering another economic crisis

They understood the gravity of the 2008 crisis well before the Federal Reserve

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/c860bdde-b606-11e5-8358-9a82b43f6b2f.html#axzz3x2QbGtX1

Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economist
Royal Bank of Scotland warns of ‘cataclysmic’ year with slumps in shares and oil and advises clients to shift to bonds

http://www.theguardian.com/business...head-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

US stocks suffer their worst first week of the year since records began
Standard & Poor’s 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 6% and 6.2%, respectively, in the biggest ever fall for the first five days of January

http://www.theguardian.com/business...s-suffer-worst-first-week-since-records-began

How China could trigger a global crisis

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/01/11/how-china-could-trigger-a-global-crisis/

Emerging economies can no longer power global growth, warns World Bank
An unprecedented 'synchronised slowdown' in emerging markets could yet jeopardise the world's prospects over the coming years

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ger-power-global-growth-warns-World-Bank.html

Instead of imitating governments and waiting to act like with 2008 or the current refugee crisis, I've preempted this one myself by creating a thread.

 

[AP 297]

They'll probably get away with it again. All it will take is flooding the political system with even more bribe money. Plus (you may dissagree with me) But the repbublicans are even quicker than the democrats to get bribed and find ways to pigeon hole the debate. They'll take about government debt when the conversation should be about all the debt (including corporate and personal) and why there's so much of it.

I can say since 2010, the Republicans have been lapping in the bank money. Thing is that in 2006 and 2008, it was the Democrats who raked in the giant donations from bankers. That is right, both parties are equally corrupt and both will sell their soul for the right price.

The funny thing is that Trump and Sanders are not exactly "party guys".

Trump's family came from Brooklyn and he actually "invaded" the enclaved Manhattan market. Trump hates the old money types involved in the big banks and they hate him even more.

Sanders has been backstabbed and left out to dry countless times by the Democratic party, especially by more Wall Street friendly moderates like the Clintons. In fact until this year, he was an independent. Yep, Bernie just joined the Democrats this past year!

Also thanks to how the bailouts went in 2008, it would not longer take that much to nationalize the US banks. The Bush and Obama presidencies have now set the precedent for government involvement in the banking system. They only have to ask congress for permission to give them money. The truth is that there were a whole lot of charges back from 2008 that were just deferred. We all know the banks did not do what they agreed to in those deferment agreements. At this moment, the government now has the justification to simply enforce the law and seize them. They simply won't because of the severe fallout.

Trump or Sanders might be willing to live with the consequences of nationalizing the US Banks. Wall Street knows this and is very afraid of this scenario.

 

[JU 199]

I can say since 2010, the Republicans have been lapping in the bank money. Thing is that in 2006 and 2008, it was the Democrats who raked in the giant donations from bankers. That is right, both parties are equally corrupt and both will sell their soul for the right price.

The funny thing is that Trump and Sanders are not exactly "party guys".

Trump's family came from Brooklyn and he actually "invaded" the enclaved Manhattan market. Trump hates the old money types involved in the big banks and they hate him even more.

Sanders has been backstabbed and left out to dry countless times by the Democratic party especially by more Wall Street friendly moderates like the Clintons. In fact until this year, he was an independent. Yep, Bernie just joined the Democrats this past year!

Trump or Sanders might be willing to live with the consequences of nationalizing the US Banks. Wall Street knows this and is very afraid of this scenario.

You're a bit optimistic on trump. He's got a real fascist vibe to him and He'd probably keep everything the way it is with a little ego massage. Sanders would have the will but the democatic party bureaucracy would consume him. Slimy little fuckers like wallstreet cash more than america

Also thanks to how the bailouts went in 2008, it would not longer take that much to nationalize the US banks. The Bush and Obama presidencies have now set the precedent for government involvement in the banking system. They only have to ask congress for permission to give them money. The truth is that there were a whole lot of charges back from 2008 that were just deferred. We all know the banks did not do what they agreed to in those deferment agreements. At this moment, the government now has the justification to simply enforce the law and seize them. They simply won't because of the severe fallout.

Nationalization should have happened. Management at those banks got away with murder lol.

 

[JU 199]

Yeah, china is having a panic attack so big it's infecting Japan's stock market

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/13/asia...dow-sp-500-nasdaq-plunge-oil-price-slump.html

Major Asian stock markets tumbled Thursday morning, following a massive sell-off on Wall Street overnight, pressured by concerns over a global economic slowdown and low oil prices.

After a late sell-off Wednesday afternoon, the Chinese markets opened in negative territory, with the Shanghai composite down some 1.68 percent while the Shenzhen composite fell 1.67 percent after retracing some early losses. At market open, Shanghai was down 2.73 percent and Shenzhen saw losses of 3.37 percent.

Japan core machinery orders decline
In Japan, core machinery orders in November fell 14.4 percent from the previous month, according to official data, down for the first time in three months. The data is regarded as an indicator of capital spending and fell more than market expectations for a 7.9 percent decline.

 

[AP 297]

You're a bit optimistic on trump. He's got a real fascist vibe to him and He'd probably keep everything the way it is with a little ego massage. Sanders would have the will but the democatic party bureaucracy would consume him. Slimy little fuckers like wallstreet cash more than america

Not optimistic. I am just saying what Wall Street is saying behind closed doors. Trump and Sanders can't be influenced by them because they have been their enemies since birth. While America may seem "classless", don't let the lack of titles/lords/formality/repression or such fool you. We have old money and old ways just as much as the UK does. Manhattan and Wall Street are steeped in those ways. To them Trump/Sanders are people who should have kept their place and fallen in line ages ago.

While I am a Republican, I am not a Trump supporter. I personally like Jeb, to be honest. (Solid policy background, effective governor, and enough credibility to have license to compromise) Still, I am not immune to reality. I have come to terms with the fact that we have a problem and it is creating this less than ideal circumstance. I know I may have to choose between Sanders or Trump; I have already resolved myself to choose Sanders. I think he is more authentic and less likely to say things to garner support.

Still, I do know this much about Trump. Trump relies on people underestimating him. When you think you have Trump beaten, is when he has you right where he wants you. Also Trump does hold grudges and a number of those bankers bet against him a lot over the years.

As for Sanders, if he becomes president, the party which does not like him anyway has to fall in line with him. That is how the American System works. President is always party chair, no matter what.

Nationalization should have happened. Management at those banks got away with murder lol.

They did and I completely agree with you. In the American system, the President is the chief law enforcement agent. They have the power to decide how laws are enforced.

If someone strolled into the office and decided to actually enforce the law without regard to the consequences - there is nothing the other parties could do. Not even the Judiciary would be able to intervene except during the criminal trials at first. It would be during the appeals process that it might hit the Supreme Court. In that time, plans could already be implemented to partition and slowly take over these enormous institutions before the Supreme Court is able to hear opening arguments.

The House of Representatives is the only that might try to impeach the president, but even that is a wasted effort. Without enough public support the House of Representatives could face a constituent revolt. Especially the Republicans. The Senate could deny their cabinet nominations, but that has been thwarted in the past too. See Andrew Jackson's Kitchen Cabinet. http://www.blairhouse.org/history/historical-events/jackson-and-the-kitchen-cabinet

The Founding Fathers fragmented our government like this to reduce certain types of both populist and Plutarchian power grabs.

I personally think the banks may have run out of time.

 

[Without A Gout]

I personally think the banks may have run out of time.

America could really use another Andrew Jackson; somebody who is just going to tell the banks and Wall Street to fuck off and consolidate them for the benefit of the country.

Do I think Trump is that guy? Nope. The only way he'll do this is by going over Congress's head and filing executive orders left and right. Also he's merely feasting on the emotions of a frustrated and disillusioned lower- and middle-class. I fear for what will happen if he actually becomes president.

 

[Ariel]

Australia wasn't badly affected by the GFC because of the mining boom. However this one will probably hit us hard.

On a personal level cut any credit cards you have in half, pay them off & start saving as much money as you can (which you should be doing anyway) .

 

[RP 520]

The issue is less with the system and institutions and more with the people in them. That said there are things that could be changed and streamlined with wal-street plus no more bailouts of large banks. By bailing them out in 07-08 we kept the people that should have been kicked out in place and set ourselves uo for this mess.

One of the big issues I have with Sanders and Trump is that one wants to change the system, Sanders seems to think that money grows on trees and that the Scandinavian model will just click easily with the U.S. economy without taking into account all the differences between the U.S. and Scandinavia.

Meanwhile Trump is wishy-washy (hard to tell what his policies are outside of the re-hashed hope & change bit) but it seems his solution is to shuffle people around and tell them they're fired.

Both are riding in populism and dissolutioned, angry (and justifiably so) voters, a tactic Obama did in 08, which we see how that turned out in the end.

Ultimately I think @Ariel has sound advice in that you should pay off your debts, save money. I would add that when the markets dip is usually the best time to research (carefully and thoroughly) and invest in the stock market on goods since once things start going again you'll bank.

 

[Sweet and Savoury]

It be my opinion that we are in for 3 to 5 years of pretty rough going.

The bail out never fixed anything, it just delayed it a few years. Now there is now where left to go for interest rates and bail out monies. You think the American people can afford to form out a few trillion dollars more? Unlikely.

China is hella fucked up and I don't know if they will recover anytime soon.

The commodities crunch will hurt every nation importer or exporter.

So yah, pay off your debts, have some emergency money and once the market bottom out you can make back most if what was lost. Just don't panic and sell off your stocks because of what you read in the media.

 

[Without A Gout]

It be my opinion that we are in for 3 to 5 years of pretty rough going.

The bail out never fixed anything, it just delayed it a few years. Now there is now where left to go for interest rates and bail out monies. You think the American people can afford to form out a few trillion dollars more? Unlikely.

It may be longer than that, if the powers that be proceed to merely kick the can further down the road like they did in 2008.

I personally loved how the media and politicians shoved the idea that the economy had recovered and was thriving down our throats. Anyone with a brain knew that it only recovered for the extremely rich. Everyone else just got left in the dust.

 

[Fallensaint]

Yeah, most of the world is in for a rough five or six years. China have been fudging their growth figures for some time and most of the emerging market currencies are heavily dependent on them.

They are talking about massively devaluing the Yuan to boost exports which will further hit markets and with the slowdown in consumer spending everything is screaming recession.

 

[DuskEngine]

Shipping is drying up in the Indian Ocean, apparently.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) slid to a level of 402 on Wednesday, a new low, and this might stop much of trade across the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific market, say observers. There could be a strong aversion, for instance, to long-term deals.

The BDI is an economic indicator issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange.

“The trade climate is full of insecurity, as charterers are not sure if the price at which they have negotiated is the right low price,” Kiran Kamat, owner of Link Shipping & Management Systems, a leading chartering and shipping company, told Business Standard. “Charterers are unable to take a call, leading to last-minute back out (from deals), even if ship-owners are being flexible.”

The index began falling from early August last year, when China initiated a devaluing of its currency. From a high of 1,222, it has lost two-thirds in five months. Wednesday’s level is a three-decade low; the all-time high of 11,793 was on May 20, 2008. Since then, the index has been volatile, being down for much longer than thought likely.

 

[Vitriol]

Australia wasn't badly affected by the GFC because of the mining boom. However this one will probably hit us hard.

On a personal level cut any credit cards you have in half, pay them off & start saving as much money as you can (which you should be doing anyway) .

If you're seriously expecting a crash money should be moved into appreciatable assets, inflation in the aftermath of large crashes can wipe or greatly reduce savings.

Also immediately before you expect the crash you should take out large loans as inflation has the same effect on debts. Its a very risky move but get the timing right and one can get very rich very quickly.

 

[AP 297]

America could really use another Andrew Jackson; somebody who is just going to tell the banks and Wall Street to fuck off and consolidate them for the benefit of the country.

Do I think Trump is that guy? Nope. The only way he'll do this is by going over Congress's head and filing executive orders left and right. Also he's merely feasting on the emotions of a frustrated and disillusioned lower- and middle-class. I fear for what will happen if he actually becomes president.

I try to separate myself from emotions and look at how this could happen. Like I said earlier, the banks signed deferred prosecution deals. Those deals had terms and the banks never really submitted to them. The conventional wisdom was things like "housing only goes up" and "China will only keep consuming". We have seen it time and again proven wrong.

The whole "the banks will get away with it again cuz they always have" piece of conventional wisdom seems optimistic to me at this point. There is a time when everything ends. They extended themselves out of 2008 mess. This crash or the next one in another 8 years will be their undoing. I am not hoping for this, I just am honest enough to realize that their thread is nearly at an end.

Australia wasn't badly affected by the GFC because of the mining boom. However this one will probably hit us hard.

On a personal level cut any credit cards you have in half, pay them off & start saving as much money as you can (which you should be doing anyway) .

Sorry about that. I know Australia is hurting from this.

The issue is less with the system and institutions and more with the people in them. That said there are things that could be changed and streamlined with wal-street plus no more bailouts of large banks. By bailing them out in 07-08 we kept the people that should have been kicked out in place and set ourselves uo for this mess.

One of the big issues I have with Sanders and Trump is that one wants to change the system, Sanders seems to think that money grows on trees and that the Scandinavian model will just click easily with the U.S. economy without taking into account all the differences between the U.S. and Scandinavia.

Meanwhile Trump is wishy-washy (hard to tell what his policies are outside of the re-hashed hope & change bit) but it seems his solution is to shuffle people around and tell them they're fired.

Both are riding in populism and dissolutioned, angry (and justifiably so) voters, a tactic Obama did in 08, which we see how that turned out in the end.

Ultimately I think @Ariel has sound advice in that you should pay off your debts, save money. I would add that when the markets dip is usually the best time to research (carefully and thoroughly) and invest in the stock market on goods since once things start going again you'll bank.

That was one of the biggest mistakes of 2008. They kept the same people who allowed the mess to happen to keep their jobs while punishing the people who tried to stop it. The people in these institutions have become too entrenched and worse cut off from the rest of humanity. They don't see their actions as having real consequences. That is their biggest fault.

It be my opinion that we are in for 3 to 5 years of pretty rough going.

The bail out never fixed anything, it just delayed it a few years. Now there is now where left to go for interest rates and bail out monies. You think the American people can afford to form out a few trillion dollars more? Unlikely.

China is hella fucked up and I don't know if they will recover anytime soon.

The commodities crunch will hurt every nation importer or exporter.

So yah, pay off your debts, have some emergency money and once the market bottom out you can make back most if what was lost. Just don't panic and sell off your stocks because of what you read in the media.

At some point, there won't be another bailout. The last US party that did one got voted out in the next election.

Yeah, most of the world is in for a rough five or six years. China have been fudging their growth figures for some time and most of the emerging market currencies are heavily dependent on them.

They are talking about massively devaluing the Yuan to boost exports which will further hit markets and with the slowdown in consumer spending everything is screaming recession.

Everyone who pointed this out these last few years got shouted down by China Bulls. Amazing how China encounters this and decides to double down on the practices that got them into this mess in the first place.

If you're seriously expecting a crash money should be moved into appreciatable assets, inflation in the aftermath of large crashes can wipe or greatly reduce savings.

Also immediately before you expect the crash you should take out large loans as inflation has the same effect on debts. Its a very risky move but get the timing right and one can get very rich very quickly.

Stockpiling appreciable assets may be a sound strategy. Personally, I would expect we may see rampant deflation especially in the US. Hyperinflation happens when there is a confidence collapse in the Government. It is always tied to that.

If anything people are right now trying to acquire as much cash as possible. Playing the other side of the equation and stockpiling goods that people will need if there is a more severe collapse might be a sound idea. Stil, you have to wonder if Credit itself might become a rare commodity in those circumstances, too. Best advice is to have ample amounts of liquid and tradable assets.

 

[JU 199]

Renault has been raided by french authorities

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35309674

Shares in French car manufacturer Renault have fallen 20% after police raids on several of its factories.

The company confirmed the raids, saying that fraud investigators wanted to check equipment at its factories.

Investors feared that Renault was being investigated for cheating exhaust emissions tests, which Volkswagen admitted to doing last September.

However, Renault stressed that tests have shown "no evidence" of devices designed to cheat emissions tests.

 

[Skeletor]

If you're seriously expecting a crash money should be moved into appreciatable assets, inflation in the aftermath of large crashes can wipe or greatly reduce savings.

Also immediately before you expect the crash you should take out large loans as inflation has the same effect on debts. Its a very risky move but get the timing right and one can get very rich very quickly.

Trying to time the market is the worst thing you can do. Agree that I'd rather put saved cash into stocks at this point, but I wouldn't make any drastic moves.

 

[AP 297]

Trying to time the market is the worst thing you can do. Agree that I'd rather put saved cash into stocks at this point, but I wouldn't make any drastic moves.

In situations like this - the "if" is not in question, rather the "when" is in question. Everything begins and ends, especially if it is not based on any model of sustainability.

 

[JU 199]

Closing summary

• Stock markets have fallen sharply following poor US retail sales and industrial production data which point to slower economic growth at the end of 2015. Markets were already spooked by the continued slump in oil prices.
• On Wall Street, the Dow shed more than 400 points, a drop of 2.3%, and the Nasdaq is nearly 120 points off, a 2.7% decline. The FTSE 100 index is down 2.1%, France’s CAC is off 2.8% and Germany’s Dax has lost nearly 3%.
• Oil prices have hit fresh 12-year lows. Brent crude has been below $30 a barrel for most of the day, and was down nearly 5% at one stage.
• Some currency investors are betting against sterling in the derivatives markets on the assumption that a “Brexit” referendum will be held this summer. Reuters is reporting that options market pricing shows a jump in the cost of hedging against volatility between six and nine months from now.

 

[AnOminous]

Trump or Sanders might be willing to live with the consequences of nationalizing the US Banks. Wall Street knows this and is very afraid of this scenario.

We couldn't even do anything as simple as reinstating Glass-Steagall when the economy was crying for it.

We're paying the price for never doing what we needed to do for a real economic recovery.

 

[AP 297]

We couldn't even do anything as simple as reinstating Glass-Steagall when the economy was crying for it.

We're paying the price for never doing what we needed to do for a real economic recovery.

Glass-Steagall is a legislative act. It cannot be reinstated unless the US Congress allows it. Enforcing the current deferred prosecution agreements on the banks is a totally different matter.

In fact this was already considered, by the Obama Administration. Because they already broke the law - they essentially have no rights. They could now be nationalized at any time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-says-obama-aides-weighed-nationalizing-banks

In fact their contract terms with the FDIC allow the US government to do just that to any financial institution in financial distress or otherwise...

 

[AnOminous]

In fact their contract terms with the FDIC allow the US government to do just that to any financial institution in financial distress or otherwise...

You realize actually doing that would be viewed, to some extent correctly, as a sort of Communist takeover?