Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[No. 7 cat]

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,

Alyiev now seems fully hostile to Russia. Shooting down that airliner on 29th December followed by all manner of lies results in the Azeri leader telling Ukraine not to accept occupation of their land. This refers to the unofficial Ngorno Karabakh / Arshakh exclave. Russian forces variously escorted Azeri forces or were swept aside. An attack on a well armed and geographically consolidated Azerbaijan would be a disaster for Russia. Kazakhstan has a large Russian populace in the north, plus Putin did rescue his now frenemy Tokayev from his revolting people, yet if recent times are any guide, it would be another SMO operation. Realistically the only vulnerable neighbor is Armenia which moving towards the EU politically and still has a Russian base, the 102nd Military Base. Yet after betraying Armenia over Arsakh, it would be truly sordid. If the puppet Georgia govt fell, that would be a likely target as one fifth is Russian controlled proxies.

 

[WhiteNight]

Puck might be a good naval officer, but he's a terrible economist. Those aren't sanctions on Russia, those are sanctions on nations that do business with Russia.

I don't get this criticism. Puck clearly refers to "secondary tariffs" and, perhaps speaking loosely, counts them as sanctions on Russia, since the effect is to deter countries from buying from them.


Meanwhile, there's the story of the defense appropriations bill in the House. Marjorie Taylor Greene (aka MTG aka Moscow Marjorie) was gish galloping by putting forward frivolous amendments with no hope of passing. She battered the House with no less than six proposals:

• an amendment to slash foreign humanitarian and disaster relief funding; failed 63 to 365
• an amendment to eliminate funding for Taiwan; failed 6 to 421
• an amendment to eliminate HIV education funding; failed 104 to 326
• an amendment to eliminate funding for Israel; failed 6 to 422
• an amendment to eliminate funding for Jordan; failed 30 to 400
• an amendment to eliminate funding for Ukraine; failed 76 to 353

These all failed by voice vote, but then she demanded recorded votes for all of them (even the two with only 6 supporters), which ran past midnight. The Senate equivalent is probably Mike Lee.

This gives us a barometer of how Ukraine is doing in the House. Ukraine has less support than most other foreign funding, but is still doing well: only 17.7% of the votes favored defunding. The roll call on the Ukraine amendment is here

https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2025209?RollCallNum=209&BillNum=H.R.4016

and provides an up-to-date Who's Who of Ukraine opponents in the House (all Republicans). Some names such as Thomas Massie, Nancy Mace, Paul Gosar, and Lauren Boebert may be familiar from other news stories. Harriet Hageman is less well-known but is the one who knocked Liz Cheney out in a primary.

 

[cybertoaster]

considering we're living in the world where even Trump is losing patience with the Kremlin regime, but what do you folks think?

I think its more likely the russians will get angry enough for some other strongman to try their luck against putin if country-wide conscription happens, in which case putin and any remaining loyalists would wish they had cut a deal with the ukranians and the west because if this happens none of them are gonna make it to the courthouse.

The sheer absolute irony of that poster: Kurchatov was threatened with a firing squad if he couldn't build an a-bomb, a project that he started and Stalin delayed because he didn't care until we dropped one on Japan. He then got irradiated due to the rush to get an atomic program going and agonized for years until he died at just 57. As for Korolev he got sent to the gulag by Stalin over nothing and was crippled for life due to hard labor, also dying relatively young.

Basically this is like the germans making a motivational poster with Einstein, Neumann and Hitler.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

Meanwhile, there's the story of the defense appropriations bill in the House. Marjorie Taylor Greene (aka MTG aka Moscow Marjorie) was gish galloping by putting forward frivolous amendments with no hope of passing. She battered the House with no less than six proposals:

What a lot of Republicans and conservatives keep missing is what applies to Ukraine, and its Russian minority population also applies to the United States with its Mexican minority population. When their primary reason for backing Russia is because the democrats may have or not color revolutioned the Ukrainian government during the Obama administration. Plus the old fucks and the younger indoctrinated "fear the nuke" dumb fucks who wholeheartedly believe Russian should be allowed to have its sphere of influence for perpetuity.

Yeah that shit isn't gonna fly for everyone else who remembers the Cold War and why the free world won and former Warsaw Pack and SU nations wanting freedom.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

On the Russian speaking internet there has been a recent wave of news in regards to Putin's declaration that the Whatsapp app is on the chopping block of western social media to be banned. Now that is shocking news to many, since that site has around 100+ million Russian users, commonly used by both the young and poor, the poor and privileged. It's supposed to be replaced with Russian homebrewed alternative "Max". Not only that, but there have been cellphone internet shutdowns in certain regions in response to Ukraine's "spiderweb" operation, leading to something as basic as ATMs becoming inoperable for a while.

Some suspect that this potential new wave of crackdowns on the internet is all part of the plan to re-introduce conscription, by forcing the country's population to use only Russian monitored social media, where all dissent and negative opinions from such decision would be deleted and erased. Now this seems like a realistic enough scenario, but I've also heard some stating that these new conscripted forces will be used to assault the Suwalki gap, instigate an entirely different "special military operation". Now the probability of that I find to be way more dubious, considering we're living in the world where even Trump is losing patience with the Kremlin regime, but what do you folks think?

Dunno about all that other stuff, but Whatsapp is used by everyone, even my stubborn boomer dad who we couldn't convince to get a proper smartphone until recently (and only then because he couldn't refuse a birthday gift), this would be a horrible move, but I wouldn't put it past this administration. Especially when it's an opportunity for someone connected to Kremlin to make a fuckton of money while providing much shittier "alternative" with backdoor for FSB wider than abused conscript's sphincter.
Like how they recently made it illegal to resell online accounts (including game accounts), which is punishable by criminal code
It's total loon times here

I think its more likely the russians will get angry enough for some other strongman to try their luck against putin if country-wide conscription happens, in which case putin and any remaining loyalists would wish they had cut a deal with the ukranians and the west because if this happens none of them are gonna make it to the courthouse.

I don't think you quite realize the sheer scale of Putin worship. He created political climate where he's pretty much the only political figure anyone even knows, because no one else matters, they're not allowed to matter. It's impossible for anyone to get that sort of momentum, a lot of things would have to go wrong for that to even become a possibility.
Whenever people like that appear in the news, they generally cease living shortly after.
Full-scale conscription would mean nothing short of end for Putin's Russia, that's why he's avoiding it IMO. It's too big of a gamble. And all it would do is just prolong this disastrous war even more, not win it.

 

[No. 7 cat]

Not even Ukrainian uber jeets are safe

View attachment 7671745

This might be a Russian fake, but I for one am in favor of pressganging Uber jeets / Brazucas into war. That greasy slop is unhealthy and makes people lazy and those e bikes are kinda hazardous.

Full-scale conscription would mean nothing short of end for Putin's Russia, that's why he's avoiding it IMO. It's too big of a gamble. And all it would do is just prolong this disastrous war even more, not win it.

Full mobilisation would likely both enrage people and cripple the economy, but does Russia even have the stores to arm and clothe this new cohort of reluctant soldiers? Ukraine itself cannot even consider full mobilisation unless some sugar daddy funds the resulting crippled civil economy.

 

[thx1138]

Officially there's been no decision. Unofficially there are reports that they finally stopped working on it a while ago and that they're about to officially pull the plug. There have been rumours about it's imminent demise for years, but to me at least, the fact that even government fellating rags like Izvestia are covering it, suggests they might finally be serious about it.

I can't imagine what crewing that godawful thing must be like. I mean, back when it'd put to sea. There was probably sulfur dust on everything from the mazut burning engines, smoke in every compartment, probably no reliable way to make potable drinking water just...just godawful. I wish the Chinese luck operating the other one they have.

 

[Vince McMahon]

>posts videos rotated by Russian shills for years

How convenient. Pretty sure at least some of them are just arrests but yeah, bussification is a problem. What do you suggest then?

No it's just reality on the ground

 

[WhiteNight]

No it's just reality on the ground

You're in the wrong thread. This is you?

RU Post in thread 'Russia Is in Demographic Free Fall. Putin Isn’t Helping.'

Jul 9, 2025

Nice Ukraine cope thread you guy have here.

Russian territory lost: 0.001%
Ukraine territory lost: 20% - forever

Who's losing again?

• Russell Coight

• 
• 

The zigger cope cage is over there.

Russians love to share these supposed conscription videos over and over, but without context we don't know what's happening or even where. I notice that in the third video, the caption in the lower-left says "Задняя дверь" (back door), which is Russian, not Ukrainian. Hm.

 

[Ghostse]

What stopping Ukraine from going after their oil fields?

@ToEnsureVerification, @East_Clintwood, and @Fatsuit Shinji

have the major points covered.
There is also environmental considerations, and namely Ukraine not wanting to be the first party to declare scorched earth.

The other issue is Russian gas infrastructure. Burning the Iraqi oilfields was made possible by Sadam's retreating army having been in control of them, and disrupted operations for a long time because of how Iraqi oil is geographically in the south: near the surface in relatively loose soil.
Russian deposits are often further down, so setting a well on fire wouldn't necessarily accomplish much - just dynamite the well closed and the fire would put itself out. This would be much more viable of the main Russian oil fields were closer to the action and Ukraine could put continual fire on them to prevent return to service.
So as @Fatsuit Shinji says hitting the refineries does much more damage when you can only manage intermittent strikes.

This is a little off topic but what's what that fake and gay aircraft carrier of theirs these days? I heard they finally retired the shitheap.

Work has been stopped for a long time, its likely Russia has been buck broken enough they will be forced to take the L and declare it done.

I don't get this criticism. Puck clearly refers to "secondary tariffs" and, perhaps speaking loosely, counts them as sanctions on Russia, since the effect is to deter countries from buying from them.

Its not sanctions on Russia it is sanctions on literally everyone else. Countries will be choosing US or Russia (or lets be realitic: US and Russia via black/greymarket bypassses) Granted terms haven't come down (and I've made my opinion on the watertightness of those sanctions clear) but it is so much bigger than just the US putting sanctions on Russia. US didn't even go this hard on Iran.

But again, I said while his work was sloppy, he got to the right conclusion: Russia won't immediately buckle.

---

Not even Ukrainian uber jeets are safe

View attachment 7671745

Wow thanks legitimate and 100% not a vatnigger sock poster for your valuable completely organic take without agenda. And for wonderful other takes like these:

>volunteer as a mercenary
>get trained by Americans in modern warfare
>get bombarded WW1 style
>300 155mm shells land on you in 30 seconds
>they cost Russia nothing because they were manufactured in 1944 by some starving peasants
>open fire on "Ill equipped Russian troops"
>they begin to fire back with double your fire power because they have belt feds
>you didn’t bring a belt fed because every tacticool operator has convinced you a super specced AR15 is all you need
>hide in a trench
>eat a grenade
>loose 20% of your face because WW1 tactics still work
>Stalin sends his regards
>finally you slip into the abyss
>your last sight in your remaining eye is a Ukrainian soldier
>he’s dressing you in a Russian uniform and taking pictures

View attachment 5095215

Nice Ukraine cope thread you guy have here.

Russian territory lost: 0.001%
Ukraine territory lost: 20% - forever

Who's losing again?

75% of Russia's bomber fleet gone forever. Still can't take a mid-sized town in bumfuck nowhere, but just two more weeks to Kiev, right?

 

[No. 7 cat]

You're in the wrong thread. This is you?

RU Post in thread 'Russia Is in Demographic Free Fall. Putin Isn’t Helping.'

Jul 9, 2025

Nice Ukraine cope thread you guy have here.

Russian territory lost: 0.001%
Ukraine territory lost: 20% - forever

Who's losing again?

• Russell Coight

• 
• 

The zigger cope cage is over there.

Russians love to share these supposed conscription videos over and over, but without context we don't know what's happening or even where. I notice that in the third video, the caption in the lower-left says "Задняя дверь" (back door), which is Russian, not Ukrainian. Hm.

I take really that all posts of some brutal hohol recruiters bundling someone into a van is a bad Russian fake. Arresting Ubereats and Deliveroo would be fine tho.

This total spontaneous question and answer can be taken as an indication that Alyiev regards Putin as an enemy even if Russia and Azerbaijan might still be nominal CSTO allies.

source

This simply Paul Warburg talking to the camera in one take, but he makes a case that Crimea is now isolated; no longer the dagger pointed at the heart of Ukraine, that the Black Sea Fleet essentially gone thanks to drones and the geography that makes it a natural fortress also makes it easier to besiege it loosely with a collapse of the Putin war perhaps resulting in recapture.

source

Preston Stewart talking about drones hunting Russian soldiers like the Babi Yaga (a Russian nickname for a type of troop hunting drones drawing from Russian folklore) drone with night vision. The attack pairs drones and artillery picking off soldiers as they emerge. Also an overview of the Russian strikes with 450 munitions, mostly UAVs but 20 missiles. The Russians claiming as usual to have destroyed another Patriot battery and a US supplied radar. Instead the attack was the usual civilian attack.

 

[latinlover]

Babi Yaga (a Russian nickname for a type of troop hunting drones drawing from Russian folklore)

The Ukrainians definitely understood the assignment with the cool drone names- Baba Yaga, Vampire, Valkyrie, Punisher, compare that with the Russians naming their shit Cube or Aileron. Niggers need to get more creative.

 

[Ghostse]

This total spontaneous question and answer can be taken as an indication that Alyiev regards Putin as an enemy even if Russia and Azerbaijan might still be nominal CSTO allies.

I can't speak commie and there weren't any subtitties. Any transcript?

This simply Paul Warburg talking to the camera in one take, but he makes a case that Crimea is now isolated; no longer the dagger pointed at the heart of Ukraine, that the Black Sea Fleet essentially gone thanks to drones and the geography that makes it a natural fortress also makes it easier to besiege it loosely with a collapse of the Putin war perhaps resulting in recapture.

This guy needs to connect with Puckers. The BSF is far from destroyed - the majority is still afloat, most of them newer ships, and able to conduct operations. Additionally he over states the uniqueness of Sevastopol, doubly so since Russia was already moving to shift the BSF from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk before 2014. What Sevastopol has is soviet-era heavy equipment and spare parts.

But he's got the correct view of it, which is Crimea would be easy to besiege and that ease is a large part of why this conflict started. And that Crimea is no longer very strategically important; Ukraine can reach out and touch anything high value there.
But I think he's got the wrong part of it about its use in bringing the war to the end. As long as Russian control isn't recognized only normalized, Ukraine will have the option in the future of taking it back. Additionally unless Ukraine is committed to hammer Russia until they are so bloody they will take any terms, and given Ukraine hasn't lowered the draft age I don't think they're there, Crimea was taken nearly bloodlessly in 2014. Normalized control of Crimea is a reasonable bargaining chit that doesn't technically reward Russia's latest round of retardation while still giving Russia a reason to accept an end of open conflict.

Also an overview of the Russian strikes with 450 munitions, mostly UAVs but 20 missiles. The Russians claiming as usual to have destroyed another Patriot battery and a US supplied radar. Instead the attack was the usual civilian attack.

We'd be seeing 8 different angles of the same strike each one claiming to be a different installation if they'd actually pulled that off.

 

[Optimus Prime]

This is a little off topic but what's what that fake and gay aircraft carrier of theirs these days? I heard they finally retired the shitheap.

Also, up thread, is that photo saying "Stalin's DNA is in you" - is that for real?

The Admiral, which Russia has kept in perpetual drydock 'modernization' as an on-paper aircraft carrier, finally got the official 'axe' because it's such a money sink hole. Which functionally means Russia doesn't even have a single aircraft carrier on paper or otherwise, a significant admission of the state of affairs since the very idea of claiming they had an aircraft carrier was part of their force projection.

Not having the money to keep pretending that thing was ever going to sail anywhere again other than maybe an Indian shipbreaking yard is a dire look into the state of Russian military economics