UN UK Snap election 8th June 2017 - Oh boy another U turn.

News is still comming in as i post this but this is indded intreating.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629603

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Less flowery summary pls. I like the effort but I'd also like to have a better idea of the situation.

Why do you hate fun?

Ok, so May came out and came across as far more human and less robotic than she had been in previous interviews. She actually tackled some questions head on while other questions she gave "professional political" answers to. Even the controversial Social Care policy which had seen her hammered quite badly in previous weeks, once explained, sounded far more appealing than the media version of it has.

She had some crazed Nurses who decided to whine some more about their profession and some bloke that looked like a tramp tried to heckled her a couple of times. This pair would then just happen to be in the audience that began whooping for Corbyn as he fell flat on his arse later on.

Also enjoy this man's wonderful Moustache:

Despite having some tough questions May's body language was open and she remained steadfastly towards the front of the stage throughout the questioning.

Corbyn on the other hand got hammered so much that the Momentumites in the audience (again the miserable nurses who looked like unwashed tramps) to start shrieking and cheering. He waffled without really explaining any policy on business and looked as if he was sneering half the time. After he got ten bells of shit kicked out of him over nuclear weapons.

I've gotten his whole Q&A bit where he gets angry here, until 25:30. Where he looked ready to go up there and punch the guy.

It was after this he never bothered really answering anything, he'd just waffle a lot more and this is when the shrieking and seal clapping began from Momentumites in the audience.

 

[Chemical snorfare]

Less flowery summary pls.

He did say he was channelling Quentin Letts, so that's like asking McDougalls to be less Floury.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Pointing out that Dianne Abbot is now a gormless, useless, fat, moronic racist bitch who thinks we only have 20,000 police officers on the streets and would pay for a load of coppers on a paltry £8,000 a year is now wayyyyyyyyyyyyyycist.

When you start playing the race card because the bucket of lard keeps making absolutely fucking idiotic mistakes when they're clearly promoted above their station and about as out of their depth as the beardy weardy IRA lover makes me think Labour smell that the polls are being warped.

Especially as the so-called Labour surge doesn't seem to bare out where the Tories are targeting, and the targeting of 8,000 Labour Majorities Plan seems to be ongoing.

 

[CWCissey]

Pointing out that Dianne Abbot is now a gormless, useless, fat, moronic racist bitch who thinks we only have 20,000 police officers on the streets and would pay for a load of coppers on a paltry £8,000 a year is now wayyyyyyyyyyyyyycist.

Welp, the Tories just gained another 5 seats there!

Heh heh.

 

[Ginger Piglet]

Pointing out that Dianne Abbot is now a gormless, useless, fat, moronic racist bitch who thinks we only have 20,000 police officers on the streets and would pay for a load of coppers on a paltry £8,000 a year is now wayyyyyyyyyyyyyycist.

When you start playing the race card because the bucket of lard keeps making absolutely fucking idiotic mistakes when they're clearly promoted above their station and about as out of their depth as the beardy weardy IRA lover makes me think Labour smell that the polls are being warped.

Especially as the so-called Labour surge doesn't seem to bare out where the Tories are targeting, and the targeting of 8,000 Labour Majorities Plan seems to be ongoing.

So what's new then? The Abbopotamus has been playing the race card for years.

>decries selective education as entrenching privilege
>sends son to a private school because "West Indian mothers will go to the wall for their children" and as the offspring of immigrants it's okay really

>insists on staying in the EU
>decries Finnish nurses in Homerton Hospital because they're not multi cultural enough for the needs of a borough like Hackney

Then there was the thing in 2006 where she tried to foment inter-ethnic tension between West Indians and Nigerians for some inexplicable reason.

And to think sandal king used to knock her front end in. Talk about Hot Skitty on Wailord Action...

 

[CWCissey]

And to think sandal king used to knock her front end in. Talk about Hot Skitty on Wailord Action...

Who said he stopped?

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

A Kinder, Gentler Politics.

 

[CWCissey]

A Kinder, Gentler Politics.

Those Momentum Mongs just love destroying their cause, don't they?

 

[DuskEngine]

YouGov is becoming a bit notorious among polling circles now after their refusal to change their sampling methodology. They still use the older way of self elected voters which gives frequent bias and overstatement of Labour support.

Yougov's predictions were out by as much as 7% in the run up to the night of the 2015 GE and was still predicting a Hung Parliament (With Labour or Conservatives as the largest party dependent on the day). We actually got a 6.9% different in support between the parties, resulting in a conservative majority government, albeit a modest one.

They were also one of the only pollsters to put "Yes" to Scottish Independence ahead at any point during the referendum campaign of 2014 and this appeared to mostly be driven by SNP MSP's pushing their CyberNat allies (Who're strong and fanatical on twitter) to sign up to Yougov and spam the polls.

There's also an exploit on Yougov where you can login and vote twice on any poll given provided one of those logins is via your mobile phone, with someone showing (with no intention of voting Labour) of how they'd voted Labour Twice.

In essence, they're the sole pollster predicting this outcome while using a model that didn't predict Scotland saying No Thanks, The Tory Majority in 2015, Brexit or The Trump presidency.

Even their "controversial" constituency by constituency model has a range of the Tories either losing 20 seats, or enjoying a majority of 60.

Meaning my oxen slaughtering antics a page or two ago are about as accurate.



The other pollsters which still hand the Tories a healthy lead of anywhere between 7-12% giving a majority of between 40-90 (my own range of predictions) has a newer model that will probably prove more accurate, it takes into account your age and likely hood of voting. This eliminates the people who answer "Don't know" but tend to give the Tories a punt as a result.

A lot of young people are saying they will vote Labour but are unlikely to get out of bed to do so, and certainly not where it actually matters while older voters (those 35 and above) are seeing their vote divided more heavily in favour of the tories as this is what historical trends have shown. Even investigation into the voting blocks after the "controversy" over the 'dementia tax' saw the 65+ voters staying rabidly conservative while those lower down became only a fractionally more mixed, the only place really giving her trouble is the media who've found the one chink in the armour and will hammer it relentlessly, all while Labour's far more terrifying Land Tax sails quietly by with its lights off.

There's also the possibility that the mostly London based Momentumites are warping the polls and a lot of votes will simply be stacked in various safe seats, especially in Fortress Corbynista (formerly Londonistan).

Are Survation any good in your estimation? Cause the Tory lead is down to 1 point in their latest, down from 18 last month.

iirc weren't they relatively accurate with the 2015 GE and Scottish referendum?

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Are Survation any good in your estimation? Cause the Tory lead is down to 1 point in their latest, down from 18 last month.

iirc weren't they relatively accurate with the 2015 GE and Scottish referendum?

Rumour mill is that Survation is no longer convinced of their own sampling model due to how violently the polls have shifted in a month and are due to hold another review after this GE, maybe to go back to their older model or a derivative thereof.

With the current model they have if actually represented some 7-8 million people have switched their votes sometime during this election campaign, switching very violently from Tories to Labour despite the confidence in the latter party remaining lower than the Tories over nearly every single facet including about their team and on all the important issues such as immigration, economy, security and even on the NHS.

They can't have come from UKIP as there was 4 million of them at the last GE representing 12.6% of the electorate and a lot of them are holding their nose and backing the Tories to deliver Brexit and this doesn't seem to really have changed.

Indeed UKIP still polls around 3-4% in nearly every model meaning... where the hell have those voters all gone? There's about 2-3 million voters there to whom leaving the EU and controlling immigration are the most important thing to them, and they're gone. They gone to Labour who won't support a proper brexit and allow for free movement? I don't think so.

Support among the elderly who tend to carry elections is highly in bias of the Tories as well despite the controversial social care plans which actually benefit the lower down majority.

This is largely because there doesn't seem to be a matching of reality between the pollsters and what's going on on the ground. No MPs seem to be reporting a major shift in the opinions and that's on both sides.
=======================

So there's a few scenarios likely to happen.

The first is that the polls are totally and utterly right and that Corbyn will waltz into Number 10 on Friday morning after doing a quick and dirty confidence deal with the SNP, or even worse, Sinn Fein.

The next one is the models are still wrong or have kinks to work out that are unseen. We've seen insane volatility in the polls even in the run up now when usually people have already made up their mind either this week or last week and they rarely change their minds. On top of this, these models are "weighted" mostly by some human being deciding that anyone who answers "don't know" falls into one party or another. There could be unexpected bias there.

The third is the vote stack scenario. There are lots of people getting enthusiastic for JC and for Labour and they're going to go out and vote in their droves... in safe Labour seats where it didn't matter and never would. We saw this happen during the EU referendum where the "right on" crowd stacked their votes for the EU and then claimed that "x voted to stay" when they inevitably lost.

Fourth is again on the models being off. We don't know exactly how these models work at the moment and only have some understanding. We've already seen model manipulation ongoing by Yougov several times over so its possible that Momentum is brigading these pollsters to manipulate the vote more in their favour, this is likely due to a lot of polls moving online. There's also manipulation in the other direction where people answer various parties and then go on to vote for someone else.

Alternatively there could be too many city folks being taken on these polls, these groups tend to vote more for labour due to various factors and it doesn't take into account that there's a lot of countryside seats which tend to vote Tory. Its possible country folk can't be bothered to be more politically active beyond basic campaigning so won't faff around with polls.

Polling throughout the last Parliament and the coalition showed Labour ahead for most of it before it narrowed enormously to the point it became too close to call, just like we're seeing now.

The end result was a 7% swing towards the Tories.

--------------------

Other pollsters such as ORB give the Tories a 7% lead, and COMRES still has them static at 12%. Others narrow is to about 5% to 1%.

Basically the polls are a wilder mess than they were last time around and whoever gets it closest will have the best "new" model that others will follow on with.

 

[Ginger Piglet]

Rumour mill is that Survation is no longer convinced of their own sampling model due to how violently the polls have shifted in a month and are due to hold another review after this GE, maybe to go back to their older model or a derivative thereof.

With the current model they have if actually represented some 7-8 million people have switched their votes sometime during this election campaign, switching very violently from Tories to Labour despite the confidence in the latter party remaining lower than the Tories over nearly every single facet including about their team and on all the important issues such as immigration, economy, security and even on the NHS.

They can't have come from UKIP as there was 4 million of them at the last GE representing 12.6% of the electorate and a lot of them are holding their nose and backing the Tories to deliver Brexit and this doesn't seem to really have changed.

Indeed UKIP still polls around 3-4% in nearly every model meaning... where the hell have those voters all gone? There's about 2-3 million voters there to whom leaving the EU and controlling immigration are the most important thing to them, and they're gone. They gone to Labour who won't support a proper brexit and allow for free movement? I don't think so.

Support among the elderly who tend to carry elections is highly in bias of the Tories as well despite the controversial social care plans which actually benefit the lower down majority.

This is largely because there doesn't seem to be a matching of reality between the pollsters and what's going on on the ground. No MPs seem to be reporting a major shift in the opinions and that's on both sides.
=======================

So there's a few scenarios likely to happen.

The first is that the polls are totally and utterly right and that Corbyn will waltz into Number 10 on Friday morning after doing a quick and dirty confidence deal with the SNP, or even worse, Sinn Fein.

The next one is the models are still wrong or have kinks to work out that are unseen. We've seen insane volatility in the polls even in the run up now when usually people have already made up their mind either this week or last week and they rarely change their minds. On top of this, these models are "weighted" mostly by some human being deciding that anyone who answers "don't know" falls into one party or another. There could be unexpected bias there.

The third is the vote stack scenario. There are lots of people getting enthusiastic for JC and for Labour and they're going to go out and vote in their droves... in safe Labour seats where it didn't matter and never would. We saw this happen during the EU referendum where the "right on" crowd stacked their votes for the EU and then claimed that "x voted to stay" when they inevitably lost.

Fourth is again on the models being off. We don't know exactly how these models work at the moment and only have some understanding. We've already seen model manipulation ongoing by Yougov several times over so its possible that Momentum is brigading these pollsters to manipulate the vote more in their favour, this is likely due to a lot of polls moving online. There's also manipulation in the other direction where people answer various parties and then go on to vote for someone else.

Alternatively there could be too many city folks being taken on these polls, these groups tend to vote more for labour due to various factors and it doesn't take into account that there's a lot of countryside seats which tend to vote Tory. Its possible country folk can't be bothered to be more politically active beyond basic campaigning so won't faff around with polls.

Polling throughout the last Parliament and the coalition showed Labour ahead for most of it before it narrowed enormously to the point it became too close to call, just like we're seeing now.

The end result was a 7% swing towards the Tories.

--------------------

Other pollsters such as ORB give the Tories a 7% lead, and COMRES still has them static at 12%. Others narrow is to about 5% to 1%.

Basically the polls are a wilder mess than they were last time around and whoever gets it closest will have the best "new" model that others will follow on with.

This is gonna be amusing either way. However if I wake up on 9 June to a Labour government I'll be very disappointed. Still, life goes on, and I have a job, so screeching and setting things on fire because my lot lost isn't in my future on account of I have to actually earn my crust.

A Tory victory would indubitably provide far more salt, though...

 

[millais]

Did he even run this past his lawyers? What a dumb cunt

Secretive artist Banksy has offered fans a free print if they vote against the Conservatives in a move which could land him in legal trouble.

The political graffitist posted on his website offering a print to voters in six Bristol area constituencies.

Applicants have to send him a ballot paper photo showing a vote against the Tories to get the limited edition work.

This would contravene laws designed to ensure votes remain secret, and could break rules against bribery.

'Complimentary gift'
The Conservatives declined to comment on the offer to voters in the Bristol North West, Bristol West, North Somerset, Thornbury, Kingswood and Filton constituencies in and around Banksy's home city.

He wrote: "Simply send in a photo of your ballot paper from polling day showing you voted against the Conservative candidate and this complimentary gift will be mailed to you."

The artwork, which he has also put on his Instagram page, reprises his well-known "girl with a balloon" motif, this time with a Union Jack in the balloon.

It will be released on 9 June, Banksy said on his website.

In a "lawyer's note" disclaimer, it adds: "This print is a souvenir piece of campaign material, it is in no way meant to influence the choices of the electorate, has no monetary value, is for amusement purposes only and is strictly not for re-sale.

"Terms and conditions to follow, postage not included."

Under Section 66 of the Representation of the People's Act it is a criminal offence to "induce a voter to display his ballot paper after he has marked it so as to make known to any person the name of the candidate for whom he has or has not voted".

It is also illegal to show the paper's unique identification number.

An Electoral Commission spokesman said: "Given the risk that someone taking a photo inside a polling station may be in breach of the law, whether intentionally or not, the commission's advice is against taking any photos inside polling stations."

Crimestoppers, which is working with the Electoral Commission to combat fraud, warns on its website: "It's illegal to offer money or gifts to voters, directly or indirectly, to get someone to vote a certain way, or not to vote at all."

An Avon and Somerset Police spokesman said: "At this time, we've not received any complaints regarding this."

 

[AnOminous]

Are Survation any good in your estimation? Cause the Tory lead is down to 1 point in their latest, down from 18 last month.

iirc weren't they relatively accurate with the 2015 GE and Scottish referendum?

I frankly barely trust any poll from the UK at all. They range from somewhat inaccurate to absolute nonsense.

 

[Elysian]

Does anyone remember that board game advert thing the Green party made? I know I'm probably :late: but I just found it funny how they were all taking the piss out of the "slogan round" with the whole "~strong and stable~" thing and then at the end were like "Vote for us for a more caring and confident Britain!". Like do they just think ~da kidz~ are too brain dead to notice that they're doing the exact same thing or?

I really should have a think who I'm gonna vote for since exam season hasn't really allowed much time for that. They all seem like shit people to vote for to be honest, but I suppose it's very much more a vote for how easy/hard Brexit is gonna be because of all the sperging about it...

 

[Lorento]

They all seem like shit people to vote for to be honest, but I suppose it's very much more a vote for how easy/hard Brexit is gonna be because of all the sperging about it...

This sums up every voters thought process tbh.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Once averaged out, the Tories come out about 7% ahead again which would give a modest increase to their majority, taking them from 12 to 26.

That assumes a uniform national swing however and that the UKIP voters switching mostly Tory could see a large upset in places where Labour was expected to hold out. This is why Ashcroft's own predictive model, which attempts to go more by constituency and give you a probability sees a Tory Majority of about 60 as the most likely result.

I'm beginning to get shades of last year in my mind as the polls showed a similar tightening of the race, but then people votes Tory in the ballot box to give us this modest majority government now. Brexit being an actual vote factor this time around could see us with a larger majority and this seems the most likely outcome.

Indeed, I will be surprised if Labour poll quite as highly as the polls suggested as this is what happened last time, and Labour support was overstated by about 5-6%.

 

[CWCissey]

Once averaged out, the Tories come out about 7% ahead again which would give a modest increase to their majority, taking them from 12 to 26.

That assumes a uniform national swing however and that the UKIP voters switching mostly Tory could see a large upset in places where Labour was expected to hold out. This is why Ashcroft's own predictive model, which attempts to go more by constituency and give you a probability sees a Tory Majority of about 60 as the most likely result.

I'm beginning to get shades of last year in my mind as the polls showed a similar tightening of the race, but then people votes Tory in the ballot box to give us this modest majority government now. Brexit being an actual vote factor this time around could see us with a larger majority and this seems the most likely outcome.

Indeed, I will be surprised if Labour poll quite as highly as the polls suggested as this is what happened last time, and Labour support was overstated by about 5-6%.

Last night's terrorist incident will no doubt give the Tories a slight boost too. No-one I know trusts Jihadi Jez on terrorism legislature.

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Last night's terrorist incident will no doubt give the Tories a slight boost too. No-one I know trusts Jihadi Jez on terrorism legislature.

I'm just waiting for the sickos to start saying its another false flag op to give them the boost.

 

[Ginger Piglet]

I'm just waiting for the sickos to start saying its another false flag op to give them the boost.

Dinner is served.

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/06/03/cnn-psy-op/

 

[Ponderous Pillock]

Meanwhile a top serving politician with actual power finally fucking makes sense.