News is still comming in as i post this but this is indded intreating.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629603
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629603
UN UK Snap election 8th June 2017 - Oh boy another U turn.
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- Dec 30, 2015
So the cunning plan was to pay off the national debt with lost deposits.
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2013
Looks like one of Comrade Corbachev's biggest backers is under threat again.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40122571
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40122571
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2016
Ya know, the guy who he ran against? Gerard Coyne? Is even more of a looney leftie than he is.
Also it seems the money's drying up for the other parties, last week's money was:
Tories: £3,772,550
Labour: £331,499
LibDems: £310,500
Women’s Equality Party: £71,552
UKIP: £16,300
Greens: £9,366
Suggesting the Tories might be gearing up for an out and out blitz during this last week to get their voters out with the cash they have to hand.
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2013
I expect a full Tessie Tour, with BoJo in tow.
That's what I would do if I was the Tory strategist anyway...
(2016 article on YouGov, can't find a 2017 version)
- Joined
- Sep 27, 2014
I expect a full Tessie Tour, with BoJo in tow.
That's what I would do if I was the Tory strategist anyway...
(2016 article on YouGov, can't find a 2017 version)
They have the latest favourability numbers on their site.
Corbyn:
May:
Really remarkable month.
EDIT: Not sure if the methodology used here is the same as in the picture you posted.
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2013
Judging by the sheer numbers on the Corbyn 'really like' one compared to May, I'm wondering if there's been some shenanigans to be honest...
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2016
YouGov is becoming a bit notorious among polling circles now after their refusal to change their sampling methodology. They still use the older way of self elected voters which gives frequent bias and overstatement of Labour support.
Yougov's predictions were out by as much as 7% in the run up to the night of the 2015 GE and was still predicting a Hung Parliament (With Labour or Conservatives as the largest party dependent on the day). We actually got a 6.9% different in support between the parties, resulting in a conservative majority government, albeit a modest one.
They were also one of the only pollsters to put "Yes" to Scottish Independence ahead at any point during the referendum campaign of 2014 and this appeared to mostly be driven by SNP MSP's pushing their CyberNat allies (Who're strong and fanatical on twitter) to sign up to Yougov and spam the polls.
There's also an exploit on Yougov where you can login and vote twice on any poll given provided one of those logins is via your mobile phone, with someone showing (with no intention of voting Labour) of how they'd voted Labour Twice.
In essence, they're the sole pollster predicting this outcome while using a model that didn't predict Scotland saying No Thanks, The Tory Majority in 2015, Brexit or The Trump presidency.
Even their "controversial" constituency by constituency model has a range of the Tories either losing 20 seats, or enjoying a majority of 60.
Meaning my oxen slaughtering antics a page or two ago are about as accurate.
The other pollsters which still hand the Tories a healthy lead of anywhere between 7-12% giving a majority of between 40-90 (my own range of predictions) has a newer model that will probably prove more accurate, it takes into account your age and likely hood of voting. This eliminates the people who answer "Don't know" but tend to give the Tories a punt as a result.
A lot of young people are saying they will vote Labour but are unlikely to get out of bed to do so, and certainly not where it actually matters while older voters (those 35 and above) are seeing their vote divided more heavily in favour of the tories as this is what historical trends have shown. Even investigation into the voting blocks after the "controversy" over the 'dementia tax' saw the 65+ voters staying rabidly conservative while those lower down became only a fractionally more mixed, the only place really giving her trouble is the media who've found the one chink in the armour and will hammer it relentlessly, all while Labour's far more terrifying Land Tax sails quietly by with its lights off.
There's also the possibility that the mostly London based Momentumites are warping the polls and a lot of votes will simply be stacked in various safe seats, especially in Fortress Corbynista (formerly Londonistan).
Yougov's predictions were out by as much as 7% in the run up to the night of the 2015 GE and was still predicting a Hung Parliament (With Labour or Conservatives as the largest party dependent on the day). We actually got a 6.9% different in support between the parties, resulting in a conservative majority government, albeit a modest one.
They were also one of the only pollsters to put "Yes" to Scottish Independence ahead at any point during the referendum campaign of 2014 and this appeared to mostly be driven by SNP MSP's pushing their CyberNat allies (Who're strong and fanatical on twitter) to sign up to Yougov and spam the polls.
There's also an exploit on Yougov where you can login and vote twice on any poll given provided one of those logins is via your mobile phone, with someone showing (with no intention of voting Labour) of how they'd voted Labour Twice.
In essence, they're the sole pollster predicting this outcome while using a model that didn't predict Scotland saying No Thanks, The Tory Majority in 2015, Brexit or The Trump presidency.
Even their "controversial" constituency by constituency model has a range of the Tories either losing 20 seats, or enjoying a majority of 60.
Meaning my oxen slaughtering antics a page or two ago are about as accurate.
The other pollsters which still hand the Tories a healthy lead of anywhere between 7-12% giving a majority of between 40-90 (my own range of predictions) has a newer model that will probably prove more accurate, it takes into account your age and likely hood of voting. This eliminates the people who answer "Don't know" but tend to give the Tories a punt as a result.
A lot of young people are saying they will vote Labour but are unlikely to get out of bed to do so, and certainly not where it actually matters while older voters (those 35 and above) are seeing their vote divided more heavily in favour of the tories as this is what historical trends have shown. Even investigation into the voting blocks after the "controversy" over the 'dementia tax' saw the 65+ voters staying rabidly conservative while those lower down became only a fractionally more mixed, the only place really giving her trouble is the media who've found the one chink in the armour and will hammer it relentlessly, all while Labour's far more terrifying Land Tax sails quietly by with its lights off.
There's also the possibility that the mostly London based Momentumites are warping the polls and a lot of votes will simply be stacked in various safe seats, especially in Fortress Corbynista (formerly Londonistan).
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2016
Well I wrote a whole speil here detailing how the pollsters work but then the forum went wonky, made it look like it posted twice, so I deleted it and now both have vanished. fml.
Ok, so to put it simply Yougov is using the same vastly discredited model that didn't predict the Scottish "No thanks" vote, the 2015 GE and the 7% lead the tories actually had, or Brexit or President Trump. The main reason why is it relies a lot on the "politically active" voter and requires you to self elect and put your marker down where you can. And we all know Hard Lefties are too busy being whiny vocal shits rather than actually getting things done.
They were the only pollster to really hand a "YES" vote in Scotland and this was largely driven by SNP MSPs telling their party members to go sign up and spam the polls.
Even their constituency by constituency model showed the "worst case scenario" and it the range open was anywhere between losing 20 seats and a majority of 60 for the Tories. I.E "We ain't able to predict shit."
On top of that Yougov has a bug that's been tweeted out recently where if you login via mobile and a regular browser you can vote twice and have it counted.
The new models try and eliminate the "don't knows" that exist and divide your vote by party depending on age and job. This sees Tory majorities in the polls of 7-12% but those ones slip by quietly on the news because they need money and stuff to be sold.
There's also the possibility the rabidly active Momentumites are warping the polls by eagerly responding to overstate Labour support. This will simply result in the "vote stack" scenario where safe seats remain safe and even increase their majorities which Labour will still hail as an amazing victory with "...actually we saw a 6% swing towards us in some constituencies." being spouted once again by Diane Abbot along with her pathetic "80% of our members voted against brexit" which when looked at just meant "everyone in London who's a paid up Momentumite." While its own core seats in the North swung heavily for Brexit.
Ok, so to put it simply Yougov is using the same vastly discredited model that didn't predict the Scottish "No thanks" vote, the 2015 GE and the 7% lead the tories actually had, or Brexit or President Trump. The main reason why is it relies a lot on the "politically active" voter and requires you to self elect and put your marker down where you can. And we all know Hard Lefties are too busy being whiny vocal shits rather than actually getting things done.
They were the only pollster to really hand a "YES" vote in Scotland and this was largely driven by SNP MSPs telling their party members to go sign up and spam the polls.
Even their constituency by constituency model showed the "worst case scenario" and it the range open was anywhere between losing 20 seats and a majority of 60 for the Tories. I.E "We ain't able to predict shit."
On top of that Yougov has a bug that's been tweeted out recently where if you login via mobile and a regular browser you can vote twice and have it counted.
The new models try and eliminate the "don't knows" that exist and divide your vote by party depending on age and job. This sees Tory majorities in the polls of 7-12% but those ones slip by quietly on the news because they need money and stuff to be sold.
There's also the possibility the rabidly active Momentumites are warping the polls by eagerly responding to overstate Labour support. This will simply result in the "vote stack" scenario where safe seats remain safe and even increase their majorities which Labour will still hail as an amazing victory with "...actually we saw a 6% swing towards us in some constituencies." being spouted once again by Diane Abbot along with her pathetic "80% of our members voted against brexit" which when looked at just meant "everyone in London who's a paid up Momentumite." While its own core seats in the North swung heavily for Brexit.
- Joined
- Mar 18, 2016
Sounds like they've been picking off of Twiiter or something.
- Joined
- Sep 18, 2014
@Ponderous Pillock i got you fam post undeleted
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2016
Well I now have two posts saying basically the same stuff, so enjoy reading me when not lazy, and then slightly lazy folks!
- Joined
- Jun 13, 2016
I finally got a Tory leaflet here. It's mostly about Theresa May being strong and stable with a half page from the local candidate.
In other news, a youtuber called the Angry Taxi Driver who Ashara Woodwalker (my friend of a friend of a friend the superannuated hippie) shares was extremely jubilant about that YouGov poll showing that Labour were ahead. If @Ponderous Pillock and Guido Fawkes are right and it's a 50-to-80 seat Tory majority, this could be a rich source of salt on 9 June.
In other news, a youtuber called the Angry Taxi Driver who Ashara Woodwalker (my friend of a friend of a friend the superannuated hippie) shares was extremely jubilant about that YouGov poll showing that Labour were ahead. If @Ponderous Pillock and Guido Fawkes are right and it's a 50-to-80 seat Tory majority, this could be a rich source of salt on 9 June.
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2013
Labour screamers forget that Labour screamers take part in polls like this all the time. They also forget that the same Labour screamers tend to effectively silence Tory voters, leading to the perennial 'Shy Tories' phenomenon.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2016
Well the BBC Question Time Specials have just ended and what a telling showing that was.
I shall now attempt to mimic the great Quentin Letts for your entertainment, sans him wanting to bang T. May over his desk.
The HMS May hoved into few, new dashing red lick of paint along her waterline and a refit of new heavy Brexit guns. The HMS May managed to actually acquit herself well for once after various design flaws were ironed out and seemed to have been quietly had her crew retrained by people not her bloody aides to come across as more prime ministerial, open and willing to go for more tough questions as and when they were asked. WHOOSH in came a volley on social care and BOOM they bounced harmlessly off of her armour, taking time to reply with rapid gunfire of detailing the policy actually had people applauding the controversial policy.
Rapid sobbing gunfire from one quarter was dealt with cool, calm and measured aim before BANG down it went, another gun silence.
Even the mines in the water of screaming nurses bounced near harmlessly off of her hull as people tried again and again to fire on her about the NHS, with one kamikaze nurse with wild hair and wilder eyes blabbled in tongues about needing more money despite having one of the most secure jobs in the country.
Then one man decided to say we should have another referendum on the EU because the vote was "too close."
BREXIT. BREXIT. BREXIT. Came her big gun replies, turning the man to a pile of ash. These big guns were used to great effect to many a question again and again crashing, accurate shellfire which saw people nod and applause
Before too long, with many laying wrecked and sinking around her she steamed away quietly with a satisfied nod.
Then out steamed the USSRS Corbyn, looking confident and magnificent, knowing the polls were in his favour. He (or it as the gender neutral labour would prefer) seemed far more ready for the similar questions he enjoyed earlier this week in Cambridge. Ready to sail through the gauntlet unopposed.
But it was not to be, no, for the audience had prepared their coastal defences in advance.
"Would you press the red button?" one cried and CRASH the Corbyn began to take on water. Its reply of I would not far missing the mark. "What about second strike?" it came again and another BANG as the midship armour began to splinter.
Finally the killer blow, as one audience member stated I'd rather have them and never use them, then not and need them.
ARROOGA! AROOGA! The water began to gush in and the Corbyn began to list as it huffily turned its guns from the audience and looked ready to push that red button, but refused to.
Suddenly an ambush on the land among the audience! Whooping and cheering for everything he said began to rise in shrieking hideous crescendo like a Stuka siren of old as the USSRS Corbyn limped its way towads the back of the sea and propped itself up on a table like a tug boat helping a striken vessel.
Now this shiny new ship, this bete noir that would never sink according to its most ardent funders and builders was sinking rapidly. Clearly rattled and needing the desperate support of its agents its gunfire began to become heavy but unaimed, waffle and chaff sparking in the sky as question after question was waffled and waved away with yet more chaff.
Even at the very end, clearly billowing smoke and still taking on water, the shrieking cheers from the crowd continues as it limped away.
I shall now attempt to mimic the great Quentin Letts for your entertainment, sans him wanting to bang T. May over his desk.
The HMS May hoved into few, new dashing red lick of paint along her waterline and a refit of new heavy Brexit guns. The HMS May managed to actually acquit herself well for once after various design flaws were ironed out and seemed to have been quietly had her crew retrained by people not her bloody aides to come across as more prime ministerial, open and willing to go for more tough questions as and when they were asked. WHOOSH in came a volley on social care and BOOM they bounced harmlessly off of her armour, taking time to reply with rapid gunfire of detailing the policy actually had people applauding the controversial policy.
Rapid sobbing gunfire from one quarter was dealt with cool, calm and measured aim before BANG down it went, another gun silence.
Even the mines in the water of screaming nurses bounced near harmlessly off of her hull as people tried again and again to fire on her about the NHS, with one kamikaze nurse with wild hair and wilder eyes blabbled in tongues about needing more money despite having one of the most secure jobs in the country.
Then one man decided to say we should have another referendum on the EU because the vote was "too close."
BREXIT. BREXIT. BREXIT. Came her big gun replies, turning the man to a pile of ash. These big guns were used to great effect to many a question again and again crashing, accurate shellfire which saw people nod and applause
Before too long, with many laying wrecked and sinking around her she steamed away quietly with a satisfied nod.
Then out steamed the USSRS Corbyn, looking confident and magnificent, knowing the polls were in his favour. He (or it as the gender neutral labour would prefer) seemed far more ready for the similar questions he enjoyed earlier this week in Cambridge. Ready to sail through the gauntlet unopposed.
But it was not to be, no, for the audience had prepared their coastal defences in advance.
"Would you press the red button?" one cried and CRASH the Corbyn began to take on water. Its reply of I would not far missing the mark. "What about second strike?" it came again and another BANG as the midship armour began to splinter.
Finally the killer blow, as one audience member stated I'd rather have them and never use them, then not and need them.
ARROOGA! AROOGA! The water began to gush in and the Corbyn began to list as it huffily turned its guns from the audience and looked ready to push that red button, but refused to.
Suddenly an ambush on the land among the audience! Whooping and cheering for everything he said began to rise in shrieking hideous crescendo like a Stuka siren of old as the USSRS Corbyn limped its way towads the back of the sea and propped itself up on a table like a tug boat helping a striken vessel.
Now this shiny new ship, this bete noir that would never sink according to its most ardent funders and builders was sinking rapidly. Clearly rattled and needing the desperate support of its agents its gunfire began to become heavy but unaimed, waffle and chaff sparking in the sky as question after question was waffled and waved away with yet more chaff.
Even at the very end, clearly billowing smoke and still taking on water, the shrieking cheers from the crowd continues as it limped away.
- Joined
- Dec 7, 2013
Less flowery summary pls. I like the effort but I'd also like to have a better idea of the situation.
- Joined
- Apr 30, 2016
tl&dr;
May looked a bit more professional and in control than in previous interviews and handled both a Brexit and NHS question pretty well.
Comrade Corbyn continued to shit himself and do nothing the minute someone brought up national security. He did admit he would retaliate if attacked but was thoroughly unconvincing.
- Joined
- Mar 10, 2013
As well as normal trends the election is also on an exam day.
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2013
That shouldn't stop them. It takes literally 2 minutes to go inside your polling station and vote. So if (when?) May wins, we can still tell the young 'ins that they're lazy cunts.https://youtube.com/watch?v=id=nnKbGYbS5XE;m=0;s=54The state of this election.
As well as normal trends the election is also on an exam day.
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