UN UK Snap election 8th June 2017 - Oh boy another U turn.

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Lorento said:
She was sure to pimp her internet plans. Don't worry, once they break encryption of private messages I'm sure that Whitehall will love looking at fifteen year olds texting one another for hours on end.
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Which is again why a lot of criticism on this point falls a bit flat. GCHQ or whoever they hand responsibility to won't give a fuck about Bethany and Amelia talking about how big Daryl's cock is or what perfume they want to go get next time they're out in town.

Your average user will see literally nothing change. Even the more extreme autists on places like 4chan or whatever won't change either because their admins already readily comply with LEO, or have their own accounts there shitposting anyway. It would update them to make the big corps who's sailed by on a lot of responsibilities as I outlined over here to take some responsibility for the shit they helped cause and then did fuck all about.
 
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Unprecedented triple post from me, but campaigning has resumed (and UKIP never suspended theirs) so fuckit.

Rumour mill is grinding away and reports are coming in on Postal Ballots. For every 2 ballots being taken out that are for the other parties, 7 or 8 are solidly conservative.

Gunna be an interesting night on the 8th, methinks.
 
Ponderous Pillock said:
Unprecedented triple post from me, but campaigning has resumed (and UKIP never suspended theirs) so fuckit.

Rumour mill is grinding away and reports are coming in on Postal Ballots. For every 2 ballots being taken out that are for the other parties, 7 or 8 are solidly conservative.

Gunna be an interesting night on the 8th, methinks.
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From what I've heard, it's looking likely the worst result would be a 60 seat majority for the Tories
 
CWCissey said:
From what I've heard, it's looking likely the worst result would be a 60 seat majority for the Tories
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I reckon the new models still need some adjustments. Especially with how wildly apart the pollsters have been. The lead is about 7-12% still which is far outside a margin of error and yes, gives either a majority of around 60 or 120.

My bet is the new models are still too reliant on the politically active responding that they will vote and it continues to warp Labour support far above what it actually is.

The top end polls giving the Tories the biggest lead includes quite heavy turnout reliance and pegs the young voters down at the bottom end.

Yougov seems to assume a very high turnout of youth voters at some 51%, which I am certainly skeptical of, and a turnout of about 40-45% seems way more likely even with "Corbyn Mania" coming into play to enthuse more younger voters.
 
Ponderous Pillock said:
I reckon the new models still need some adjustments. Especially with how wildly apart the pollsters have been. The lead is about 7-12% still which is far outside a margin of error and yes, gives either a majority of around 60 or 120.

My bet is the new models are still too reliant on the politically active responding that they will vote and it continues to warp Labour support far above what it actually is.

The top end polls giving the Tories the biggest lead includes quite heavy turnout reliance and pegs the young voters down at the bottom end.

Yougov seems to assume a very high turnout of youth voters at some 51%, which I am certainly skeptical of, and a turnout of about 40-45% seems way more likely even with "Corbyn Mania" coming into play to enthuse more younger voters.
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Predictions:

1. Tory majority of 50 to 80 seats.

2. Salt, cryin rn and literally shaking on social media.

3. Screeching about how old people should be rounded up and shot for voting against young people's interests.

4. Hilarity when the 18-25 age bracket turnout is under 40%.

5. Possible screaming and breaking things?
 
Ginger Piglet said:
Predictions:

1. Tory majority of 50 to 80 seats.

2. Salt, cryin rn and literally shaking on social media.

3. Screeching about how old people should be rounded up and shot for voting against young people's interests.

4. Hilarity when the 18-25 age bracket turnout is under 40%.

5. Possible screaming and breaking things?
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And not only that, but even among young voters registering, only 55% say they'll vote Corbyn. Sure, that's a lot, but its not devastating. The Tories even poll above Lib Dems among University students, so these young people aren't enough to overturn the rest of the country being mostly pro Tory.
 
Ponderous Pillock said:
Yougov seems to assume a very high turnout of youth voters at some 51%, which I am certainly skeptical of, and a turnout of about 40-45% seems way more likely even with "Corbyn Mania" coming into play to enthuse more younger voters.
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In what country does that even happen? Seriously. An assumption like that is pure fantasyland bullshit by an outfit that apparently isn't even pretending to be legitimate at this point. Don't these pollsters ever do anything to correct the fact that they're absolute shit at their jobs and every single election, they're totally wrong about everything?

They're not even consistent. At least in the US, where we have pollsters with known biases (for instance Zogby tends to trend left and Rasmussen right), it's usually by fairly similar numbers and you can adjust for that. These UK clowns seem to just pull shit out of a hat completely unapologetically.
 
I actually think the Tories are still going to hit Labour brutally hard. Harder than a lot of people are predicting.
 
AnOminous said:
In what country does that even happen? Seriously. An assumption like that is pure fantasyland bullshit by an outfit that apparently isn't even pretending to be legitimate at this point. Don't these pollsters ever do anything to correct the fact that they're absolute shit at their jobs and every single election, they're totally wrong about everything?

They're not even consistent. At least in the US, where we have pollsters with known biases (for instance Zogby tends to trend left and Rasmussen right), it's usually by fairly similar numbers and you can adjust for that. These UK clowns seem to just pull shit out of a hat completely unapologetically.
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Its an internet based polling firm set up by hipsters.

Which means on the night of the 8th, they will be glued to twitter predicting a Corbyn landslide ,when one pollster will turn to the other and say "so who did you vote for then?" and the other will reply "errrm."
 
Well it seems the Survation Poll has likely been rigged.

It was conducted online while all other polls done by Survation prior to it were phone polls and involved the BBC Leaders Question Time Special where Momentumites were always more vocal. Despite Corbyn getting hammered over and over it made the respondents "more likely to vote Labour than Conservative".

When the polls were conducted by phone prior to this their poll leads to the conservatives were 11, then 18, then 6 which places them smack dab in the averages reflected by most other pollsters.

BUT that's it now, no more polls until Thursday, so here's hoping.
 
Its crazy how much the Lib Dems have fallen, should never have pissed off students by agreeing to higher tuition fees after they campaigned against it
 
delboy said:
Its crazy how much the Lib Dems have fallen, should never have pissed off students by agreeing to higher tuition fees after they campaigned against it
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Not really, they've just gone back to where they used to be. They've always bounced around thw 10% mark for donkeys years and only tended to spike during elections. Under Timmy they've gained a paltry hand full of councillors and a single seat at Richmond.

This resulted in the hilarity below where Olney was fucked over thanks to Lib Dem pants on head attitudes:

 
Ponderous Pillock said:
Not really, they've just gone back to where they used to be. They've always bounced around thw 10% mark for donkeys years and only tended to spike during elections. Under Timmy they've gained a paltry hand full of councillors and a single seat at Richmond.

This resulted in the hilarity below where Olney was fucked over thanks to Lib Dem pants on head attitudes:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=rLa7QVTJuRc
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that video is amazing
Also Lib Dems got 23% of the vote in 2010
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/
 
Even if you're a regular Lib Dem voter I don't see the point in voting for them when they're straight up refusing to be in a coalition.

I think it'd be better if in their manifesto they said something like "These are the policies we'd require before joining a coalition" then voters could see they are at least being realistic.
 
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