UN UK Snap election 8th June 2017 - Oh boy another U turn.

  • 🏰 The Fediverse is up. If you know, you know.
  • Want to keep track of this thread?
    Accounts can bookmark posts, watch threads for updates, and jump back to where you stopped reading.
    Create account
Status
Not open for further replies.
crownthefempire said:
The choices are May or Corbyn, so either he wins, or May's conservatives continue their plan to solve the financial crisis by cutting benefits and then sticking their heads in the sand until all the poor people die off.
Click to expand...

Heh. Corbyn will likely get nowhere, the disillusioned working class will go to UKIP and the Remainers will vote Lib Dem.

If anything, I think it's between May and Farron

crownthefempire said:
if Corbyn wins, he's probably gonna hold another vote on it.
Click to expand...

Pfft. Please.

Comrade Corbyn has always been against the EU.
 
I see this as a gamble forced on May by the Big Beast Brexiteers in the Tory party.

Its EU referendum:Electric Boogaloo, and Corbyn, Sturgeon et al's politics, beliefs and concerns arent going to get a look in.

If the gamble plays out , the UK can walk into negotiations with the EU commissioners who have been threatening to "punish" us and say "you din frit no-one, so now what you got in your hand?"
Its also a perfect time to do it, as the centre left (or rightish) in Germany and France are going to have to face down their own Eurosceptic voters, with the example of the UK not only voting to leave , but doubling down on Brexit even after the EU's threats of economic meltdown as punishment.

However, lets say we go cool on Brexit by voting against the Tories (whatever party takes yer fancy, cos perception is going to be more persuasive than policies here). Germany/France can relax because their own eurosceptics will have taken a big knock with Britain getting scaredy cat cold feet. In the Brexit negotiations The EU commissioners will hold all the cards because they know their own Project Fear gets the results they want, and they can point to the fact that the UK doesnt actually know what we want from Brexit.

So, it basically comes down to whether we believe Johnston, Davis and Fox etc are the kind of born leaders who can look into an opponents eye and judge the metal of his character. That they are Masters of Brinkmanship who can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

we're fucked is what I'm saying.
 
Chemical snorfare said:
So, it basically comes down to whether we believe Johnston, Davis and Fox etc are the kind of born leaders who can look into an opponents eye and judge the metal of his character. That they are Masters of Brinkmanship who can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Click to expand...

...When you put it like that, I just realised that I need to buy a plane ticket to Iceland immediately.
 
upload_2017-4-19_18-16-35.png

more results from the Snap election

Rhythm is a dancer , obs.
 

Attachments

  • upload_2017-4-19_18-14-47.png
    upload_2017-4-19_18-14-47.png
    35.1 KB · Views: 82
Lackadaisy said:
i don't know anything about british politics, so i assume y'all are either choosing the next dr. who or deciding what's the national tea brand.
Click to expand...


We are probably voting on where we will stand when Trump backs Putin's invasion of Latvia to stop the eastward expansion of the EU.

But no, you've got all the important stuff covered, rightly so.
 
Chemical snorfare said:
I see this as a gamble forced on May by the Big Beast Brexiteers in the Tory party.

Its EU referendum:Electric Boogaloo, and Corbyn, Sturgeon et al's politics, beliefs and concerns arent going to get a look in.

If the gamble plays out , the UK can walk into negotiations with the EU commissioners who have been threatening to "punish" us and say "you din frit no-one, so now what you got in your hand?"
Its also a perfect time to do it, as the centre left (or rightish) in Germany and France are going to have to face down their own Eurosceptic voters, with the example of the UK not only voting to leave , but doubling down on Brexit even after the EU's threats of economic meltdown as punishment.

However, lets say we go cool on Brexit by voting against the Tories (whatever party takes yer fancy, cos perception is going to be more persuasive than policies here). Germany/France can relax because their own eurosceptics will have taken a big knock with Britain getting scaredy cat cold feet. In the Brexit negotiations The EU commissioners will hold all the cards because they know their own Project Fear gets the results they want, and they can point to the fact that the UK doesnt actually know what we want from Brexit.

So, it basically comes down to whether we believe Johnston, Davis and Fox etc are the kind of born leaders who can look into an opponents eye and judge the metal of his character. That they are Masters of Brinkmanship who can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

we're fucked is what I'm saying.
Click to expand...

I'd say it's a double thing. May's probably going to use it to ensure the few hardline brexiteers will have their power lessened as a result, as right now the "ultra hardcore" can simply derail the business of government. May is now on course for a 100+ majority. (Some swingometers predicting 160 or more)

Basically she's going to lock the 1922 down and out by making them sign up for a brexit and grammar schools manifesto.
 
Ive heard suggestions (Indy IIRC) that the Tories had heard that Corbyn had finally had enough, and they were worried that they might face a real opposition come 2020, just as they were concluding Brexit negotiations. Kier Stamer was mentioned as a possible Labour leader.

While I dont hold much belief in the rumour, its not an unattractive outcome if Corbyn takes this as the oppertunity to jump.
 
crownthefempire said:
if Corbyn wins, he's probably gonna hold another vote on it.
Click to expand...
It's the Lib Dems who might do that, if Labour won we'd get a Brexit lite where they'd prioritise staying in the single market meaning keeping freedom of movement and that kind of thing.

With the first past the post voting we're basically in a two party system though so the Lib Dems have no chance of getting a majority and enacting that, this election I think really shows the weakness of that system since Brexit is going to overshadow things so much that if you're against a hard brexit you'll probally want to tactically vote for whoever has the most chance of defeating your local Conservative candidate rather than for a party you might prefer.
Chemical snorfare said:
Ive heard suggestions (Indy IIRC) that the Tories had heard that Corbyn had finally had enough, and they were worried that they might face a real opposition come 2020, just as they were concluding Brexit negotiations. Kier Stamer was mentioned as a possible Labour leader.

While I dont hold much belief in the rumour, its not an unattractive outcome if Corbyn takes this as the oppertunity to jump.
Click to expand...
I think Labour are in bigger trouble than they realize, Corbyn is just the tip of the iceberg and at least with the people I talk to in Scotland and comments I've read online many traditional Labour voters see them as out of touch with their working class roots and more a party of the metropolitan elite/champagne socialists.
 
Last edited:
Pickle Inspector said:
I think Labour are in bigger trouble than they realize, Corbyn is just the tip of the iceberg and at least with the people I talk to in Scotland and comments I've read online many traditional Labour voters see them as out of touch with their working class roots and more a party of the metropolitan elite/champagne socialists.
Click to expand...

Doesn't help that May's whole actual anti-spin schtick seems to make her popular among voters who might not normally lean that way too. She's used the language of provincial england and wales a lot in her speeches and other announcements since taking power, which explains the 10 month long lead she's enjoyed in national polling.
 
Sooner or later, May needs to resign because she will do absolutely nothing with 100 excuses. A real shitlord like Johnson or Farage, if he switches parties and can overpower the establishment, is crucial.
 
CWCchange said:
Sooner or later, May needs to resign because she will do absolutely nothing with 100 excuses. A real shitlord like Johnson or Farage, if he switches parties and can overpower the establishment, is crucial.
Click to expand...

Never mistake caution for being prepared to wait for the right moment. A lot of people have made this mistake and their careers are in the political boonies and graveyards, the only one still standing there is one Mrs T. May. She definitely struggled a little at first because she's always been rather controlling in her brief and its why she endured 6 years at the Home Office despite it normally eating people for breakfast. The May we're seeing now is learning what it means to be a Prime Minister.

Oh and Yougov's posted a poll (one of the more accurate pollsters).

May's Tories lead is increasing.

UKIP's vote appears to be "going home" of sorts by giving May a punt.

yg-19-4-17.jpg


24% ahead of Labour and quietly putting a stake through the laughable SNP idea of a "progressive coalition". Even scraping UKIP into it would give them only 45%.

This, if actually reflected in the national vote would give May a majority of 180 and some 417 MPs to command, including two Scottish MPs. (EDIT: This would be larger than Blair's 1997 landslide, so let that sink in...)

Most interestingly it could possibly wipe out Labour's hold on even places like Stoke Central, where they were just 2,700 votes behind Labour.

Seats which haven't flipped since the 1930s would be under threat and would, somewhat ironically, make them the only party with footholds in three parts of the UK (Wales would remain held by them as well).

Which is both kind of exciting and utterly terrifying.

Stephen Kinnock said:
“I think she wants to crush everyone before her…”
Click to expand...

Lol.
 
Even after adjusting for social class and age, those easy-to-reach voters are less Conservative than the “busy” respondents the pollsters have to work hard to chase.
Click to expand...
:story:
 
Yeah, the 'shy tory' vote is a thing, which usually throws off polls a bit.

Not that I don't think polls are complete bollocks...

I think it'd be a bit optimistic that May gets a 1997-esque landslide, but it'd be interesting to see which Labour strongholds might be threatened.
 
Corbyn gave his campaign launch today and then had the most SJW MP in his party field his questions for him. Only choosing female journalists, complaining that there needs to be "more women in journalism" openly and then booing down someone who dared to point out Jezza's problem with poll numbers.

UKIP are also pretty much done for at this point, so this leaves a lot of floating voters that I don't think will vote Labour nor Lib Dem any time soon. That's not exactly a good thing for the opposition.
 
Pickle Inspector said:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-election-2017-party-conference-a7691911.html

Poor Labour, the moderates in the party must really be regretting the one member, one vote system Ed Miliband put in place to elect their leader.
Click to expand...


Although I dont believe he will stay on, as the pressure will be too great, he should IMO.

We are 50 days from a general election and his own MPs dont have the basic loyalty (to the labour party members) to shut the fuck up and get on with trying at least to look like they want to win an election. Instead they are delighting in the fact they are going to loose big.

If Corbyn hangs on until Sept, there will be a change in the way leaders are elected , taking the power away from the PLP and handing it to the membership. I dont see that as a bad thing. In fact , the only people who seem to not like the idea are the PLP.

And if this idea sounds "loony left" , well thats exactly how the Tories elect their leaders.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom