Plummeting Birthrates Watch Thread - The horrifying implications of living in a Children of Men situation.

[Manu7]

South Korea's population line chart doesn't do a well enough job to show how beyond fucked they are, here's a Pyramid chart for those who are curious, I can't think of a country that is more fucked than South Korea.













And the thing I fucking hate the most is Liberals saying how immigration "can fix this". without powerleveling too much, I live in a "developing" nation that was heading to a age demographic issue so our politicians thought it was a good idea take immigrants from countries that have basically collapsed, and since then there has been nothing but issues.

I think everyone here already is aware of the issues when it comes if you bring hundred of thousands of niggers that do nothing but work Illegally (less tax revenue) and use our social/public services to the max extend they can, so I don't have to explain the full extend of the situation.

Back to the main topic, I'm not an outstanding citizen by any means, but I do want to start a family and it pisses me off that I feel like i did everything "right", you know shit like studying hard, getting a degree in a highly employable area, responsible with money and all that jazz.

And yet I'm decades away from even getting my own house in a place that my kids won't get stabbed by an immigrant, and that's just the tip of the iceberg, I somehow still have to pay for private school, private healthcare, kid stuff, etc.

I know life isn't set in stone but I kinda gave up on the dream on starting a family with at least the privileges that my mom & dad gave me growing up (mostly a stable home and private school), and I'm not alone in this, pretty much all my close friends from highschool feel the same way I am.

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

One other thing to keep in mind is those birth rates in Africa are dropping as well and fast. Countries like Niger and Mali were 7-8 if not higher a few decades ago. Not declining to sub-replacement levels but there's a lot of downward pressure due to lower child mortality and the shift from subsistence farming to industry and services in rapidly developing countries like Nigeria.

However, African cultures universally place a high priority on family so I doubt they will drop below replacement for a long time, if at all.

In any case I think plummeting birth rates aren't a problem in and of themselves. There just aren't the kinds of unskilled jobs available in developed countries for people with lower intelligence anymore, which means you really don't want a surplus of unskilled labor that will have no other option but to go on welfare. Eventually things will stabilize at a lower level with birth rates at replacement.

How to address the pension issue? Honestly the most palatable option is to print money to fund them but that has its own negative consequences. Countries in the Eurozone can't do that so they are really in a difficult position.

 

[Uncle Sciz]

Though be warned is saturated with trash and can be frustrating at times you going to need a lot of patientce and several dating apps+ sites to get anything out of it.

People don't want to waste their time on apps where people ignore them at best or see them as a target at worst? What a shocking concept.

 

[ATI Escapee]

It's like there's nobody around, and only geriatrics hold any kind of local club get-togethers.

I feel you, I joined a local club and a local volunteer group in hopes of expanding people I talk to irl... the volunteering is great but turns out its a one person project once a week so I havent actually met any of the other volunteers and I enjoy it so I dont want to quit plus they need the help... the club ended up being all retirees, which is okay and several of them are pretty fantastic and their home baked snacks are delicious, but I am around 30 and the only thing we have in common are my handful of gray hairs outside of the club's objective. They do some volunteer stuff as a group though which is nice. Meetup is weird and dried up, I dont drink so no bars, adult sports leagues around me are expensive and time consuming enough I dont think its going to work out, and I wfh 90% of the time so I am getting really genuinely claustraphobic feeling. Shits weird out there. I feel like I cant even find a coffee shop that I can sit down and read a book in at my leisure- its all geared to be loud and on the go to push as many customers in and out as possible. Going on a walk in the morning has been the only way I seem to organically meet people who are fine saying 'good morning' and 'how are you' to other people out walking early, but that stays pretty shallow because everyone is walking for excersise before work and no real convo is had. Sorry for the long sperg. It does feel really empty out there.

 

[Rome's rightful successor]

South Korea's population line chart doesn't do a well enough job to show how beyond fucked they are, here's a Pyramid chart for those who are curious, I can't think of a country that is more fucked than South Korea.

Kim Jong Un just needs to wait 20-25 years (probably even less than this) and just walk in and then South Korea would practically be his.

 

[Don't Tread on Me]

The solution is to promote religion.

Israel has a high fertility rate. So do many Muslim nations. Not only does religion praise father/motherhood but it also creates a community where men and women can naturally mingle, a community that is free and scheduled and open to everyone.

 

[Male Idiot]

This belongs in the deep thots or something. Not a happening. A long term problem.

Hungary has been trying for a 4 children family model.

You get big loans, and each child writes off 25%. So at 4 it becomes a gibsmuh.

Also women after 4 chilsren don't pay income tax.

Yet it isn't working very well. Western values and feminism seem resistant to even these very strong incentives.

Especially with educated women, this seems like a perfect way to get 4 kids than a career with a +35% bonus pay anti gap while the house husband takes care of the kids. Sounds like a stro g woman dream, still no baby boom.

 

[Otterly]

Some people I know work part time, making just enough to get by in a shared place, and use their free time to pursue things they care about like art or travel. Boomers hate these people, calling them "lazy millennials/zoomers", and they aren't having kids, but at least they have something in their life.

The issue then is their old age. Will they gig forever? Will they be in a shared place at 65 and who is paying the rent?

Yet it isn't working very well.

Timing and spacing is probably an issue as well. You go to uni, graduate at 21. Maybe a higher degree. Now you’re mid twenties. Say you’re keen to marry marry mid twenties. Have a year of having fun. Try for a baby. Maybe it takes a year. First baby late twenties. Babies are great but they’re hard work and many women given the choice want a year or so to recover before getting pregnant again. If you have a c section you’re told to wait 18m here before conceiving. They’ll encourage VBAC after one section. So second baby at 30.
Now you’ve got two, and a baby and a toddler is hard work. It’s great, but you want that first one out of nappies and able to dress themselves and not need the constant hawk eyes on it before you go for another one. You’re also tired, so the plentiful shagging of the early days isn’t as easy especially with two little kids needing constant attention. At best, third baby at 33.
Now you have three. Three is great. Say you’ve had two c sections, now they will tell you no VBAC it has to be section and think carefully if you want another. More than three kids is not the average family car and cars are pricey here. You’ve got boys and girls so you need a three bed house.
Now you’re 35 and you’re really tired and you love having three, but the first one is almost ten and do you really want that age gap…?
Modern life is also not compatible with big families unless you’ve got family support and can have a minivan. You also need people to start EARLY and if most women are college educated they will have at most 2-3 kids. The number who have more is very small.

 

[alpha889boba]

Ramble incoming, I don't want to work right now.

I keep seeing people mentioning money, incentives, housing costs, etc, and I agree that is all important, but one resource I hardly ever see mentioned is time.

For most of the developed world, both parents have to work full time jobs to afford putting having kids. What free time they do have is now dedicated to homework, extracurriculars, etc. Raising a child has become just another endless task to complete with no downtime where parents can spend time doing nothing with their kids. I understand that raising kids is a full time gig, but what full time job has no respite for the worker. Parents have no time to not only recover, but no time to even be an individual anymore, to pursue their own hobbies and interests, or spend time together.

Our society has created a situation where growth and prosperity is based on perpetual population growth, but it kills the incentives to have children because it means you have locked yourself into a constant cycle of work and stress for the next 20 years. People have to choose between following their own desires, or having kids because both are not possible.

It needs to be easier to raise kids, which means purchasing power / wages needs to correct in order to alleviate two parents working full time to be necessary to afford a kid, while simultaneously giving time back to parents so raising a kid is no longer a 24 hour burden on top of working some shit end job.

 

[LurkTrawl]

Immigration can't fix it because it's also tied in with the looming competency crisis. Treating humans as if we're all 1-1 replaceable cogs is part of the social circumstances and engineering that lead to this state of affairs as-is.

I know some think the competency crisis is here or ongoing, and I get that, but it seems lost on people that when it becomes a "crisis" it'll be readily apparent, as well as happening in a startlingly sudden manner.

The West™ has, if we're lucky, a good decade left, max. And while it's nice for people to bandy around "solutions" none of them will fix it, nor is there a way to alleviate the damage already done. No amount of tax cuts are going to cause fully grown, competent, healthy adults to spring up out of the ground in the millions.

 

[Judge Dredd]

The solution is to promote religion.

Israel has a high fertility rate. So do many Muslim nations. Not only does religion praise father/motherhood but it also creates a community where men and women can naturally mingle, a community that is free and scheduled and open to everyone.

Those Muslim nations are already showing the early signs of decline though.

Yet it isn't working very well. Western values and feminism seem resistant to even these very strong incentives.

Especially with educated women, this seems like a perfect way to get 4 kids than a career with a +35% bonus pay anti gap while the house husband takes care of the kids. Sounds like a stro g woman dream, still no baby boom.

Because the state is handing out money instead of cutting the burden. @alpha889boba put it brilliantly when talking about time.

You also need people to start EARLY

This is one of the main problems for me and many I know. I'm in my 30s. If we're being optimistic, I'll be pushing 40 by the time I have my first kid. Some of my friends are over 40 and still single.

There doesn't seem to be any women anywhere. Everywhere seems to be a sausage fest. Women aged 20-40 are either taken or crazy. Online dating is a horror show.

The issue then is their old age. Will they gig forever? Will they be in a shared place at 65 and who is paying the rent?

I don't know. Is it better to grind full time, then have a side hustle, and a side-side-hustle, and be effectively "on call" 24/7? It's not like extra money is going to be worth anything once it's been taxed and inflated away.

 

[Alex Hogendorp]

The solution is to promote religion.

Israel has a high fertility rate. So do many Muslim nations. Not only does religion praise father/motherhood but it also creates a community where men and women can naturally mingle, a community that is free and scheduled and open to everyone.

I wish it was that straightforward but traditional Eastern European countries like Russia and Belarus are still struggling with birth rates and the birth rates in Africa is showing signs of future failure, but only time would tell. Syria's fertility rate is still well above the replacement level but has been falling dramatically for quite some time.

But yeah, interesting to point out Israel's fertility rate because Jews have kept their fertility stable while non Jewish people such as Arabs seem to show signs they'll be dying out soon.

 

[Toolbox]

Like right now most countries dont have gender specific laws regarding family court both can become primary custody holder, the asset split works both ways regardless who made what during the marriage.

Ah yes, the law always goes exactly as it's written, not like there's any of that pesky 'room for interpretation' that opens up endless cans of worms. Have you been paying any attention to anything for the past several years, or do you just look at buzzwords that make you angry and write bingo cards?

 

[Don't Tread on Me]

I wish it was that straightforward but traditional Eastern European countries like Russia and Belarus are still struggling with birth rates and the birth rates in Africa is showing signs of future failure, but only time would tell. Syria's fertility rate is still well above the replacement level but has been falling dramatically for quite some time.
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But yeah, interesting to point out Israel's fertility rate because Jews have kept their fertility stable while non Jewish people such as Arabs seem to show signs they'll be dying out soon.
View attachment 5445821

It's specifically the Orthodox Jews though, I think. The Orthodox Jews I think have a fertility rate of something absurd like 6.1.

 

[Get the rope Macaulay!]

The Orthodox Jews I think have a fertility rate of something absurd like 6.1.

just in general the only way to increase fertility is to take womens opportunities away the way the Orthos do, its why the more "western" a country gets the fertility rate drops, its also a cultural thing, non-whites in america will be shunned if they abort or are as open about it as white people and non-ortho jews are about it. So stuff like shotgun weddings are also less likely to happen the more "western" something gets. Then there's stuff like birth control and so on, its why you can see wildly different fertility rates if you look at stuff like religion or income or urban v rural or race or a bunch of other stuff, but if you really plot it out, the amount of women that want to shit out kids and raise them is extremely small vs the amount that will do it if its their "best" option available, so to have a fertile rate that isn't complete shit you have to keep them down.

I know people, especially women don't want to hear that but its a true, same way crime will vanish if we just lock up these fuckers as quickly as possible. Sure plenty of them grow out of it or "its just a phase" but thats what parole is for.

 

[Male Idiot]

Modern life is also not compatible with big families unless you’ve got family support and can have a minivan

A big minivan is part of the "free at 4 kids" gibsmuh program. But overall mostly right.

I keep seeing people mentioning money, incentives, housing costs, etc, and I agree that is all important, but one resource I hardly ever see mentioned is time

Yeah, you are right too. Capitalism, and I am not trying to soycialismpost, needs less workhours. Automation should be for letting everyone work less, not having less workers still worked to the bone.


It does work somewhat. I have seen it work with 50 year old rich guys, 30 year old woman, 3-4 kids running around, each one year apart.
A bald, fat guy with a giant car, a solid 8/10 gold-digger wife and a gaggle of spoiled brats is not uncommon.

But while Orbán's core voters are these upper middle class, they aren't enough of them to offset the pop decline.

Gypsies of course don't care and pump out 4 kids by the time they are 22, the kids wearing dirty rags don't matter to the roach people.

 

[Bunny Wigglesworth]

I'm convinced that the answer to the fermi paradox is a form of altruism in which planets that develop intelligent life always have multiple races of intelligent life one the highly dominant and the others less so and the most wretched of all these sub races in the end rises to inherit the world, after years of building technological society the master race in the end allows and probably encourages the lowly races to proliferate until all advanced technologies are lost to their ignorance and the high iq is totally bred out.

In the dark moments of my life i look to the night sky and with a shiver face the possibility that it is literally just full of niggers.

 

[Buttigieg2020]

This belongs in the deep thots or something. Not a happening. A long term problem.

Hungary has been trying for a 4 children family model.

You get big loans, and each child writes off 25%. So at 4 it becomes a gibsmuh.

Also women after 4 chilsren don't pay income tax.

Yet it isn't working very well. Western values and feminism seem resistant to even these very strong incentives.

Especially with educated women, this seems like a perfect way to get 4 kids than a career with a +35% bonus pay anti gap while the house husband takes care of the kids. Sounds like a stro g woman dream, still no baby boom.

From an outside perspective, it seems like those incentives are just being partially countered by Covid consequences. 16% inflation is going to dampen a lot of family plans.

 

[Manu7]

Timing and spacing is probably an issue as well. You go to uni, graduate at 21. Maybe a higher degree. Now you’re mid twenties. Say you’re keen to marry marry mid twenties. Have a year of having fun. Try for a baby. Maybe it takes a year. First baby late twenties. Babies are great but they’re hard work and many women given the choice want a year or so to recover before getting pregnant again. If you have a c section you’re told to wait 18m here before conceiving. They’ll encourage VBAC after one section. So second baby at 30.
Now you’ve got two, and a baby and a toddler is hard work. It’s great, but you want that first one out of nappies and able to dress themselves and not need the constant hawk eyes on it before you go for another one. You’re also tired, so the plentiful shagging of the early days isn’t as easy especially with two little kids needing constant attention. At best, third baby at 33.

And that's assuming an almost ideal scenario when it comes to finishing studies, I personally finished my bach at 25 because after HS was pretty much lost and I'm glad I took my time rather than rushing things out, also I know people who plan on doing a career chance at their late 20s and go back to uni.

Modern life is also not compatible with big families unless you’ve got family support and can have a minivan.

That's actually a huge factor not many people consider, in my social circles, there's 2 type of people who get a child in their 20s, the first one is that weird dude from a rich catholic family that has no ambition on a career or anything in life (if lucky, they get a bachelors), so since they got nothing going on and have the resources, they just start reproducing with an equally rich and boring person. the other type is the classic dumb poor retard that should've never reproduced in the first place.

 

[Otterly]

the only way to increase fertility is to take womens opportunities away

I think if you make it socially ‘cool’ you’ll manage. Women are herd animals. If you make it a fight you’ll lose but if you make it rhe done thing it’ll happen
Obviously I have a dog in this fight as a woman and I don’t want to be chattel. But look at the response to the tradwife stuff. Yes, most are larpers but the response is extreme from tptb. I think they know that if it catches on as a trend then women will prefer it over shitty jobs. That’s why it’s so derided and demonised