I have been following this rather extensively.
The USA, RoK, and Japanese military forces definitely think there will be a missile related happening.
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20191225001051325?section=nk/nk
In short, earlier there ere the following systems deployed to the theater:
- Forward Deployed Arleigh-Burke class Destroyer with advanced SPY-1D missile tracking RADAR. (modestly rare, more rare to see forward deployed so far)
- RC-135S Cobra Ball, A very, Very, powerful electo-optical reconnaissance aircraft (rare)
- RC-135W Rivet Joint, A very, Very, powerful radio signals surveillance and geolocation aircraft (rare)
- E-8C Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System, A wickedly sophisticated RADAR aircraft tuned for detecting and tracking enemy ground targets, like tanks. (rare)
- E-737 Peace Eye, South Korean AWACS with decent missile tracking capability. (common)
- RQ-4 Global Hawk, good-all-round recon drone with a 34+ hour endurance. (relatively uncommon, but will be more common soon)
Then of course you have the dozens of land-based RADARs.
Not only do we have one RC-135S, but apparently a
second RC-135S Cobra Ball was spotted heading to the Korean Peninsula a couple of hours ago:
“USAF RC-135S 61-2662 MESS49 departed Kadena at 0100Z - Sea of Japan mission”
twitter.com
I should point out, we only have three of those, and they are a nightmare to keep maintained. So make of that what you will.
Point being, to see them all together, flying on the same day, should give a bit of warning about how seriously some very high ranking brass are taking this threat.
Oh, also A NOTAM has been put out by the US FAA warning airliners of possible missile launches
_
So what if anything do we expect to see the DPRK to do?
Depends on who you ask.
Case 1: Retrenchment, aka hard-lining and ending ""negotiations"". (Source: CNN's Will Ripley. A career cow, but there is
some evidence to support this position)
North Korea is planning to adopt a hard-line policy toward the United States that involves taking denuclearization off the table amid perceptions that President Donald Trump is vulnerable politically, a source familiar with the North Korean leadership's current mindset told CNN.
www.cnn.com
A favored theory by the dovish faction of Korean watchers. This theory says that North Korea does not want to rankle Russia and China by testing a ICBM. The belief is that the DPRK can send enough of a message by publicly saying what they have already done: put an end to negotiations. Followed by the end of all calls to end sanctions. There is also weight put on the argument by the belief that Trump may lose the US presidential election (therefore a better/different deal could be made with the incoming administration.
I am not going to be the best evangelist for this position as I do not really believe it, but apparently there as been relatively little evidence of "signs of unusual military moves have been detected in North Korea."
By Oh Seok-min SEOUL, Dec. 24 (Yonhap) -- Few signs of unusual military moves have been ...
en.yna.co.kr
Case 2: ICBM Test, non-nuclear missile test, with possible IRBM launches as well (source: well, all the previous shit. Plus some other stuff if I can be bothered)
Favored by hawkish factions. This supposition says that the DPRK has ICBMs it needs to do further testing on. That the North Korean state doesn't much care about the feelings of China and Russia (or anyone else for that matter). Additionally, "performative nationalism" is part and parcel of North Korean culture. Furthermore, what good will shouting to the world that the DPRK will not negotiate with the US or anyone else in theory, when they already don't in practice. The only real way they have to express their displeasure any louder is to light the candle.
Bottom Line: A missile test is very possible. If a test occurs it will likely be a solid fuel ICBM, but not a Nuclear test or a Space Launch Vehicle test.
“Kim's gift is not going to be a nuclear test, won't be a satellite launch, could possibly be a solid-fuel ICBM test, or it could end up being a shift in policy (or retrenchment). Odds on policy but ya never know for sure.”
twitter.com
Or we could have a rather boring """"""switch up"""""" in policy, and my missile boner goes flaccid.
