I think their days of making such mistakes are over. The growing pains of the 5th generation & 6th generations aside, Wii U was their only system to struggle solely due to bad marketing, design, and support. People were confused by what it was, nobody liked the GamePad gimmick (which didn't work out well), and the support was abysmal by Nintendo standards (and a lot of what they did support it with was bad).
It didn't help that its titles were pretty much just up-scaled Wii/3DS games. New Super Mario Bros U was the 4th installment in a year where we got a 3rd. Smash was the same, hell, it was arguably better, on 3DS. Mario Kart 8 just kind of continued 7's gimmick. 3D World was just 3D Land with multiplayer. Paper Mario was Sticker Star but slightly better. Then we had a ton of U titles make it to 3DS from Hyrule Warriors, to Woolly World, to even Mario Maker.
3DS was just Wii U but better in many cases. There are very few titles U can really call its own, most of which were not that great. At best, the system had Splatoon and Mario Maker (till 2017) to call its own, but the rest were just repurposed 3DS templates.
sounds like that's what they're doing:
I will take my guesses.
I think we are all in agreement that 3D Mario is the most likely launch title. It has been roughly 7 years since Odyssey, and 3 since Bowser's Fury. My hope is they take the Fury template and start applying it to something as wild as Odyssey.
Fire Emblem and Kirby traditionally have quick turn arounds, and we know Engage was done way before it was released. Unless FE has a remake to end of Switch, these two are easy Switch 2 shoe-ins.
Metroid Prime 4 is an iffy one, though I think it is time.
Splatoon is a must due to it being so online heavy. They will want to get in early to scrape up a large player base, meaning AC will have to wait.
Mario Kart is likely going to be there, otherwise I could weirdly see ARMS coming back. It is the same team, so they may take the Booster Pass as a nice exit for a bit.
Smash and Zelda will be no shows till 1-2 years in. Zelda will likely be a new open-world, please water diving. As for Smash, God help Sakurai as I doubt he can pull off Ultimate again. Would also throw Hotel Dusk remake in to the 1-2 years due to Another Code seemingly doing well.