💬 Off-Topic New year, 2024 troon deadpool - Place your bets on who will troon out, join the 41% during 2024

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I was considering some of the things on your post. Especially the "rewarding outlandish bets" part. I was thinking that cows get a fixed amount of points, let's presume 50, and if people guessed right they get the proportional part of points. So for the Keffals 41% speedrun would be:

Keffals joins the 41%
20 people guessed right
they get 3 points each
(rounding up, so minimum is 1 point)

Some people added extra flair to their bets, things like "OD on heroin" or "Blamed the farms" so if their added detail is more or less correct, they get an extra 5 points.

For getting it WRONG, same thing, but with fixed scores as well, maybe a lower fixed threshold like 5. Punishing harder on people that placed a "safe" bet and lost.

Since you added a trophy emoji, let's add Trophy/Achievement. Things like "Most accurate" for people getting it consistently right (minimum of 2 guesses) "Most outlandish" for people that made the least popular predictions and still nailed it, etc... Same could be made with negative tropies, just don't add extra penalty, shaming and naming should be enough.

Work in progress. May be added to OP eventually.

Scoring
For each cow on each category, points will be awarded in fixed amounts or depending on the number of people "n" that placed a bet on each cow for each category. This way outlandish but correct bets get greater rewards than safer bets. On the other hand, getting it wrong will deduct more points if the bet was considered 'safer'

What?Score
Placing a bet and getting it RIGHT! (round up!)+50 / n
Placing a bet and getting it WRONG! (round down? deduct at least 1? Decimal points?)-n / 5
Extra details on your bet more or less match the result+5
Nailed the details like a fucking "Nostradamus"+15
Hat trick! Won at least one bet on every category+10
[...] More incoming...


Edit: I forgot to quote you like some exceptional individual
UncleTusky said:
If it's for the guesses people are making I think it should be:
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Edit edit: If the predition of @Dagoth AMOGUS that NO ONE the rest guessed commits sudoku, I think he deserves at least 10 points for each cow on the table. Same but negative if he's wrong. Big risk, big reward!
 
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Recruits: Egoraptor and/or JaidenAnimations. After seeing other Youtubers go down this path, I really, really think this is plausible for these artist types.

41%: Bobposting.

"Out of the cult": Dylan Mulvaney, but in the form of nonbinary. Whoever mentioned him (potentially) becoming a drag queen is right.
 
to be honest, I don't really get why Jaiden Animations is considered an HRT Recruit with the few times she's been mentioned given my limited knowlege of her beyond the great Rule34 fueled shitstorm that engulfed the commentary community for a while, since the most I really know beyond that is that she claimed to be asexual a year or two ago and by extension part of the rainbow mafia, and that she's friends with some other notable creators like Alpharad and presumably some connections to other more prominent youtubers like her. The most of a reason i could see lurking the thread was with @AfroMegan claiming that she had low self-esteem and relationship trauma.

as for another vote to add to the 41% deadpool, I'd put it on Lize Fong-Jones, mainly because the way I'd imagine it going is either in a way where his attempts to adopt a child fails after honeycomb goes under, or as his "Final Solution" by trying to smear KF as much as he can in the suicide note and try and get it seen by anyone and everyone in the tech sphere or any other sphere he was related to in order to reignite the drive to kill the site and also avoid the consequences of his consent accident ethier way.
 
Maniac Maniac said:
"Out of the cult": Dylan Mulvaney, but in the form of nonbinary. Whoever mentioned him (potentially) becoming a drag queen is right.
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I really doubt that Mulvaney is going to detransition or even go non binary. He doesn't have an identity or any real relationships. Trooning out was an attempt to escape twink death and obscurity as he completely lacks any form of talent or competence. Now he's sliced up his face and his anorexia has destroyed the rest of his body, he has absolutely no appeal as either a gay man or a chick with a dick. He was a mediocre actor riding a trend, and not only is the trend peaking, he's going to be radioactive to most potential customers after the Budweiser drama. He's going to slowly whittle away his cash on drugs and women's luxury brands, until eventually he ends up destitute in a shitty apartment and ODs, ending up as a tiny "what happened to this guy?" Reddit thread where they find out that he'd died the year before and ended up as unclaimed cremains.
 
  • HRT recruits - Greta Thunberg will go NB
  • 41% Deadpool - Jazz Jennings. His mother will blame everyone but herself.
  • Out of the cult - no-one. There’s still cash and cachet in it. The only detransers will be young unknowns, who will struggle in silence with the damage they have done to themselves.
 
Mark me down for Contrapoints: out of the cult. I don't keep up with him but if one goes silent it usually means they're removing themselves from the cult. I think he might not detransition, but instead just say some anti-trans talking points and stay in limbo.

Dylan will cling as far as the trend takes him. He is likely to be fishing for a sugar daddy one day.

Oh, put me down for Fredrick/Down the rabbit hole for becoming a troon too, even if it's "nonbinary".
 
Kiislova said:
I should close new entries on January first. Or mark entries past due as "Late and Gay" :biggrin:


That link is for Dyldo. Did you mean this guy?
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Aah, my fat fingers. Yeah, I did indeed mean that ladydude. She is halfway to troonin already and currently needs something to distract the world from the fraud-based chaos she done did. She's a good bet, I hope :)
 
AMHOLIO said:
Dylan will cling as far as the trend takes him. He is likely to be fishing for a sugar daddy one day.
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I can't imagine Dylan detransitions this year unless the pendulum swings hard the other way. That being said, put me down for 41%, after managing to destroy yet another brand and getting shat on even by other trannies.
 
HRT Recruits: Technology Connections. All the risk factors are there. He's an:
  • Autistic
  • Gay
  • Youtuber
  • Mastodon User
It's like predicting that a pack-a-day asbestos miner will get lung cancer. All but a sad certainty.

41% Deadpool: Keffals, perhaps not "intentionally", but through an accidental overdose or something else degenerate druggie troon related. In any case it will be portrayed as a lynching by a KKKF death squad.

Out of the cult: No one comes to mind, troons that are even slightly internet famous are all balls deep in the cult, which won't let them detrans.
 
Recruits:
Onision - Idk I just feel like it's on brand for him.
Nikocado Avocado - I was hopeful for his weight loss arc but he seems to be spiraling again, I wouldn't be surprised if he did.
LinusTechTips - Wild card.

41%: Keffals due to "depression" or a drug overdose, I'm throwing in LFJ as well as a hopeful, Jazz Jennings, and Pixyteri.

Out of the Cult: Bruce Jenner, Dylan Mulvaney but not fully....genderfluid arc incoming. Days of being Nonbinary or whatever.
 
HRT: I agree with Knudsen since he's already almost there. I can also see Boogie trooning out. I just get "that" feeling from what I've seen from him.

41%: Ellen Page, Cosmo "Narcissa" Wright, and Jazz Jennings are all ticking time bombs. I can also see Pixyteri seriously attempting or being committed for a period of time.

Out of the Cult: Nady "Milo" Stewart. She already chickened out of using T shortly after starting it ages ago, so I can see her moving on from being an enby by the end of 2024.
 
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