Arizona and Utah start voting in a few hours. Cruz should have a relatively easy time in Utah, so Arizona is the one to watch. If Cruz (and Kasich, lol) can hold Trump below 45% or so, the likelihood of no one reaching 1,237 delegates increases. Cruz has a
very slim chance of reaching that number, Trump has a much better chance, and Kasich literally cannot mathematically win enough delegates to reach it (he's staying in the race in the hopes that Trump doesn't receive a majority and he can argue that because he was running and is still in, he should be the party's compromise candidate). I'm not going to hold my breath, but the thought of Trump not reaching the delegate threshold to receive the nomination is really,
really exciting, since virtually anything could happen.
Most people I know are encouraging others to support Cruz in order to stop Trump and hopefully end up with a nominee who doesn't fucking suck in Cleveland. Trump or Cruz would cause us to lose several important House races (although it's unlikely that the GOP could lose control of the House), as well as possibly control of the Senate, especially considering that Mark Kirk in Illinois and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin have essentially already lost, and only Colorado--where the GOP has a thirteen(!) candidate primary--and Nevada--which is an open seat due to Harry Reid's retirement--are chances for the Republicans to play offense. All of the other competitive or semi-competitive Senate races (Arizona, Florida, Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania) are currently held by the GOP, and the chamber's current composition is 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with the Democrats.
Any Democrat benefits, really. Here's one really good example.
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/...-for-a-Democrat-for-president-over-Trump.html
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Republicans don't lose Utah. It hasn't happened in over 50 years. But if the election were held today, Hillary would win in Utah and Sanders would mop the floor with him.
Despite this, Trump had idiotically spent the last couple days insulting Mormons, as if trying to nail the coffin shut.
I agree with the reasoning, but polls really don't have much predictive power until after the conventions. Regardless, Trump has been mostly beneficial to the Democratic Party. There is some debate as to whether or not Trump can potentially put states like Michigan and Pennsylvania in play, but I personally suspect that this effect either won't manifest or will be balanced out elsewhere, especially in the west.