MASSIVE Erection Thread 2016 - Lizard has the advantage. Trump is spiraling towards defeat.

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All discussion of the candidates, updates and results should go here

For example- here's a video of Ted Cruz vying for world domination.

Also Hilary Clinton is a crook and nobody should have sex with her.

Discuss

(Note- The title will change as we get nearer the election, previous titles will be archived in the OP)

 

[Ahffline]

The whole thing reminds me of 2008, when people were claiming the polls were grossly overstating Obama's percentage of the vote. The people making those claims were at least doing so off an actual recognised voting phenomenon (the Bradley Effect), however; I've not seen any real explanation as to why that would be happening this year, beyond claiming that "only cucks and crooks will vote for Hillary" or that the polls are under-estimating the Republican base, who are hugely excited about Trump (which was the same argument that people made - at least initially - about Sarah Palin).

Yeah. I can't count the number of times I've seen the "Trump's rallies have way, way bigger crowds" posted as evidence of a Trump victory. Sean Hannity's coverage on Election Night should be hilarious to watch.

The question is: Where does the Republican Party go from here? Will the division between the "establishment" and "Trump" crowds cause an actual rift?

 

[AnOminous]

Donald is coming after disloyal reps

View attachment 143348

He's sounding more and more like Baghdad Bob.

 

[feedtheoctopus]

Donald's snapping

 

[JU 199]

This is the corbyn affect at work. For those for those you who don't know Jeremy corbyn is the quasi marxist running the labour party in the UK. He's very popular with the base and his rallies draw large enthusiastic crowds. However this doesn't mean he'll win the election because the country at large dislikes him so much. His polling is terrible with everyone else who isn't a momentum robot. However said robots don't understand that because rallies they attend are so terrific he must be doing well everywhere else.

Trumps supporters might be suffering from the same thing. If you want an american analogue Sanders fandom would be a good one.

 

[Null]

Donald's snapping

He's telling his constituents who not to vote for.

 

[The Great Goatse]

I would be interested in seeing if this downticket massacre pans out. Historically ticket-splitters are EXTREMELY rare. In one race I ran, it was a presidential year, and we outperformed the President and US Representative candidates (both same party as my candidate) in our district by 4% or so. This was HUGE, it meant of the total votes cast, 4% of people voted for the other candidate for Prez/US Rep but switched to vote for us. Polarization is such that most people vote straight ticket. Exit polling and totals are going to be very fun to digest for a few days.

 

[JU 199]

Some interesting data has been released-

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/ncs-2016-voter-turnout-through-10-october/

NC’s 2016 Voter Turnout (through 10 October)

Apparently north Carolina republicans aren't voting in the numbers they usually do.

Spoiler: More

It could be nothing if taken by itself but it could mean something more consequential if this happens in other states.

edit: Some extra info from @Gym Leader Elesa

An interesting piece, although the main democratic stronghold in North Carolina is Asheville (in Buncombe County), not the mid-section. Middle and East North Carolina are mostly conservative farmers, baptists, and then also southern planters who have refused to sell their land for the last 150 years (which is why NC's ports never expanded to match the capability of Virginia's or South Carolina's).

A very minor nitpick but I found some of their descriptions odd. I lived in the area for almost seven years, went through numerous local election cycles, and that is just not how North Carolina works. That said, after Virginia, NC has the most democrats of any of the Southern states as far as I can tell.

 

[Pikimon]

Some interesting data has been released-

View attachment 143412
http://www.insight-us.org/blog/ncs-2016-voter-turnout-through-10-october/



View attachment 143413

Apparently north Carolina republicans aren't voting in the numbers they usually do.

Spoiler: More

View attachment 143414

It could be nothing if taken by itself but it could mean something more consequential if this happens in other states.

And this is why having multiple campaign offices in key states is critical to winning electoral votes.

Campaign offices are the people who register their constituents and help them find their polling station. They're the ones who phone bank and inform potential voters of all the info they need about the electorate.

This is going to be especially interesting as many key battleground states end voting registration today.

 

[JU 199]

This is going to be especially interesting as many key battleground states end voting registration today.

Yeah the local infrastructure is really important, especially in countries as large as america.

Its almost like trumps team dont know what they're doing.

 

[Gym Leader Elesa]

Some interesting data has been released-

View attachment 143412
http://www.insight-us.org/blog/ncs-2016-voter-turnout-through-10-october/



View attachment 143413

Apparently north Carolina republicans aren't voting in the numbers they usually do.

Spoiler: More

View attachment 143414

It could be nothing if taken by itself but it could mean something more consequential if this happens in other states.

An interesting piece, although the main democratic stronghold in North Carolina is Asheville (in Buncombe County), not the mid-section. Middle and East North Carolina are mostly conservative farmers, baptists, and then also southern planters who have refused to sell their land for the last 150 years (which is why NC's ports never expanded to match the capability of Virginia's or South Carolina's).

A very minor nitpick but I found some of their descriptions odd. I lived in the area for almost seven years, went through numerous local election cycles, and that is just not how North Carolina works. That said, after Virginia, NC has the most democrats of any of the Southern states as far as I can tell.

 

[JU 199]

A very minor nitpick but I found some of their descriptions odd. I lived in the area for almost seven years, went through numerous local election cycles, and that is just not how North Carolina works. That said, after Virginia, NC has the most democrats of any of the Southern states as far as I can tell.

Thats some handy info.

Spoiler: I have a question

Whats it like voting in america? On the other side of the water we don't have to go far to find a polling station. I take it its more spaced out? Or am I wrong?

 

[OedipusHex]

I think I read somewhere that Latinos are pretty conservative, aside from the border issue. If I'm correct a lot of latinos are very religious, which could be beneficial to Republicans if Republicans weren't exceptional.

Older ones are conservative, as are first generation ones. Younger and second, third, ... ,gen have a lot of SJWs, among the ones that are political.

 

[Gym Leader Elesa]

Whats it like voting in america? On the other side of the water we don't have to go far to find a polling station. I take it its more spaced out? Or am I wrong?

Depends on where you are. It can be a lot more tedious than it was in Europe, at least when you're down South. Everything is spaced out civil service wise, and when I lived in the area I had to drive two towns over just to get to the DMV- even though I lived in a town of 45,000+ people. That said, the actual polling station (in my case) was at a local high school three streets down, but I was also lucky enough to live "downtown." If you were out in the county, etc., it could be miles away.

Now I live in a NY urban center, and there are a shit ton of polling stations. It's like every church and school is one. The one I use is a street over, almost visible from my apartment (but then I live on a third floor loft). I think honestly it might be a similar case in the Northern countryside as it is in Dixie though- America tends to have this huge clashing disparity between urban and rural areas, even more so than other countries. While I avoid the rural North like the plague, I wouldn't be surprised if their polling stations are miles apart as well.

 

[An Ounce of Vagina]

This is the corbyn affect at work. For those for those you who don't know Jeremy corbyn is the quasi marxist running the labour party in the UK. He's very popular with the base and his rallies draw large enthusiastic crowds. However this doesn't mean he'll win the election because the country at large dislikes him so much. His polling is terrible with everyone else who isn't a momentum robot. However said robots don't understand that because rallies they attend are so terrific he must be doing well everywhere else.

Trumps supporters might be suffering from the same thing. If you want an american analogue Sanders fandom would be a good one.

Exactly. They've fallen into the trap of thinking that if they just want it hard enough it'll happen.

I read something once about people who still support Sanders. How it's no longer about politics for them. It's pretty much become a messianic cult where followers are convinced if they just believe hard enough he can still be president. I think the same thing is happening to Trump's base.

Yeah. I can't count the number of times I've seen the "Trump's rallies have way, way bigger crowds" posted as evidence of a Trump victory. Sean Hannity's coverage on Election Night should be hilarious to watch.

The question is: Where does the Republican Party go from here? Will the division between the "establishment" and "Trump" crowds cause an actual rift?

Even if it doesn't this is probably the beginning of the end for the GOP. Their core demographic is shrinking, and they have no chance of winning over any other groups. Unless they pull a complete ideological 180 right now then nothing can save them from a long, slow slide into irrelevancy.

 

[AnOminous]

Yeah the local infrastructure is really important, especially in countries as large as america.

Its almost like trumps team dont know what they're doing.

It's almost like Trump is the Chris-Chan of politicians and you'd have to completely have no clue how politics work to still be supporting this bloviating ignoramus.

 

[Chiang Kai-shek]

Even if it doesn't this is probably the beginning of the end for the GOP. Their core demographic is shrinking, and they have no chance of winning over any other groups. Unless they pull a complete ideological 180 right now then nothing can save them from a long, slow slide into irrelevancy.

Eh call me optimistic but I still think the Republicans have a long time before they become irrelevant. They're very much entrenched in the political machine and have lasted this long. I know they will lose the house and senate this election because that's just how it is.

On a different note, will Clinton be a one term president or a two term president?

 

[JU 199]

will Clinton be a one term president or a two term president?

It depends on the opposition. If the GOP somehow overcomes its problems and presents a united front I doubt she'll survive one term. Always remember that if they picked anyone else other than trump and maybe ted cruz they would have walked it. Clinton is a weak candidate hobbled by endless leaks that show her to be a fraud. Plus cyclical trends would be against her.

Of course this all depends on Clinton not keeling over before the election.

 

[Chiang Kai-shek]

It depends on the opposition. If the GOP somehow overcomes its problems and presents a united front I doubt she'll survive one term. Always remeber that if they picked anyone else other than trump and maybe ted cruz they would have walked it. Clinton is a weak candidate hobbled by endless leaks that show her to be a fraud. Plus cyclical trends would be against her.

Of course this all depends on Clinton not keeling over before the election.

Maybe the Zodiac Killer has a chance at winning in 2020. I really do hope the GOP gets their shit together before the next election, maybe a Trump loss will be a wake up call to the party.

 

[Oh Long Johnson]

Even if it doesn't this is probably the beginning of the end for the GOP. Their core demographic is shrinking, and they have no chance of winning over any other groups. Unless they pull a complete ideological 180 right now then nothing can save them from a long, slow slide into irrelevancy.

That bit I mentioned about democrats using magical thinking regarding their perceived mandate? This shit, right fucking here.

In the 80s, you could apply the term "liberal" to smear someone quite effectively. Today, you can do that with "conservative". One needs a certain level of delusion or youthful ignorance to imagine this will not flip again in the future.

 

[DZ 305]

I forgot how disquieting Alex Jones' face is. It reminds me of the great Bill Hicks, but not funny like Bill and a con