MASSIVE Erection Thread 2016 - Lizard has the advantage. Trump is spiraling towards defeat.

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All discussion of the candidates, updates and results should go here

For example- here's a video of Ted Cruz vying for world domination.

Also Hilary Clinton is a crook and nobody should have sex with her.

Discuss

(Note- The title will change as we get nearer the election, previous titles will be archived in the OP)

 

[Spudnik]

I think Hillary will win but I think you might be surprised by the numbers when everything is counted. Too many fellow dems seem to think the party has a mandate it has not earned and are dismissive of the enemy. I believe the one number that will be eye raising is the inevitable low voter turnout. I was at a wedding in the bluest of blue states over the weekend and, aside from one true believer, the general consensus was an asteroid would be a kindness after this bullshit.

Totally agree. There's an (old?) saying that “Democrats fall in love, while Republicans fall in line”. I don't think that's 100% true, but it certainly seems that Voters have to have some enthusiasm to even bother going to the polls. This is a big problem for Hillary, since she has zero personality, and is just "Not Trump". While Trump has many enemies in his own party, he definitely has a majority of the attention in the race, though most negative. It's pretty hard to tell if there will be near-record turnout because everyone is scared to death, or (my guess) a record low, because no one really wants to vote for these two.

I would be very nervous about trusting polls right now, since I bet there are a whole lot of Trump supporters that won't say who they're voting for. It's not a popular thing to say out loud. Especially since you'll get tied to racist/sexist/homophobic...you name it!

I live in a blue city in a massively red state, and I've seen a couple of Trump signs, and maybe a Clinton one. I've seen far more Bernie stickers left on cars than either of the actual candidates combined. Hell, I see Obama stickers more often. There's zero enthusiasm.

 

[Skeletor]

Trump is staring a weird Twitter feud with Paul Ryan, the rest of his party has abandoned him. It's just him in his bunker at this point, hoping for imaginary wiki leaks bombshells and citing nonexistent polls.

 

[millais]

Wendy Davis lost to Greg Abbott by well over 20 points in 2014, and Hilldawg is just as much of an abortion fetishist as deal ol' Wendy. It's unsurprising that for a good portion of Tejanos aren't #WithHer, especially considering that Latinos are overwhelmingly catholic, for what that's worth.

I suppose that may be an important platform issue for them. There is a Planned Parenthood clinic/office near the highway that gets picketed almost every day, and I did notice most of the protesters are Latino.

 

[The Great Goatse]

I would be very nervous about trusting polls right now, since I bet there are a whole lot of Trump supporters that won't say who they're voting for. It's not a popular thing to say out loud. Especially since you'll get tied to racist/sexist/homophobic...you name it!

Not to single you out or anything, but this is just blatantly untrue. It's a meme I've seen around and it's complete horseshit. How do we know? Well, we had polling all throughout the primary season including Trump, and we heard the same thing then: he will outperform his polling because of the "shy Trump" supporters. It didn't happen. In fact, he generally underperformed his polling, and it's easy to see why: A lot of his support came from traditionally disengaged and non-voting groups, people who had dropped out of the process, etc. They typically don't vote and one thing I can tell you is that actually motivating people to vote is insanely hard. If latinos or 18-24s voted at the same rate as 65+ Whites the Republicans wouldn't have won a race in decades. You can get someone fired up, you can get them to go on social media and denounce their hated opponent, but actually getting them registered and getting them to show up is very difficult. If you look at the voter registration numbers for the two parties in swing states (which are public information) you can see this. From January to August of this year, Democrats registered 221,000 new voters in Florida, compared to 185,000 by Republicans.

The archetypical Trump voter is 55 and makes six figures a year. This idea that it's all angry rural trailer trash is a fallacy; those people might support him over Hillary, but they typically don't vote and there's no sign that they will this time. Most of them aren't even registered and that hasn't changed.

 

[JU 199]

THE GLOVES ARE OFF!

 

[Internet War Criminal]

I am shocked and appalled

I think I'm gonna go kill myself

I agree (that you should)

Trump will ride Hillary like a donkey all the way to the White House while you cry yourself in your burgundy scarf and che tshirt and it's gonna be glorious

 

[Doseferatu]

So Politico (http://archive.is/6Ugkr) "debunked" the recordings from the 1980s in which Clinton discusses the Kathy Shelton case (42-year old man rapes 12-year old girl, knocks her into coma and renders her barren - he serves 1 year in jail based on a technicality) by saying:

Decide for yourself if they actually managed to debunk it:

Hillary seemed to cover the "central thrust" pretty well, as well as the background of the case - particularly the polygraph and her feelings on the results (around 1:40 in the video).

I just love how people take "fact-checking" sites at their word.

In other news, /pol/ has apparently "doxed" Correct the Record. If it's true, it seems to be a partial record of who was involved.

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/92416990
https://archive.is/yagd8
https://archive.is/yagd8
To the upset moderator - last time I tried to archive a 4chan link, I was denied from doing so (and I still have no idea why).

http://imgur.com/a/Pqziq

 

[Null]

Weren't you guys bragging like 2 weeks ago about the polls and literally the second they swing back to Hillary they're rigged again.

I think you're failing to understand how those polls work. I don't feel like writing out a big long post but I'll summarize.

When mosts polls survey people they cold call houses. They then take that data and weight it against historic outcome. Do you see the problem? They function by taking the 2012 election data and skewing actual results to reduce margin of error.

This is what happens when the same data is given to different pollsters.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ror-the-polling-world-rarely-talks-about.html

Every single one of those polls that are in this study manipulate the raw data based on state-wide expectations and expectations regarding gender and race.

One of the only polls I know of that shows Trump ahead is the LA Times Daybreak poll.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

They work differently. They have 3000 people selected to try and match the demographics of the country and monitor those people's opinions every single day, averaging it over the last week. With that, they've found Trump ahead.

Nate Cardboard's models worked perfectly in the 2008 elections because at that point the system was predictable. The candidates were predictable. The outcomes were predictable. This is not a predictable or typical election and if you think these surveys represent election day you're just dumb.

 

[Spudnik]

...The archetypical Trump voter is 55 and makes six figures a year. This idea that it's all angry rural trailer trash is a fallacy; those people might support him over Hillary, but they typically don't vote and there's no sign that they will this time. Most of them aren't even registered and that hasn't changed.

Hey, no harm here! that's a pretty interesting take on the situation. I'll admit, usually I try to figure out whats going on by reading r/the_donald (shitposters) and r/politics (Hillary Shills) and finding the middle grounds. I know Reddit is a cesspool, but it actually loads on my phone at work. Big surprise they're both way off.

THE GLOVES ARE OFF!

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God, I love the entertainment of this election...perhaps not the possible outcome, but the spectacle. Trump's tweet literally sounds like Goku taking off his training weights and preparing to go Super saiyan. Unfortunately, all that's going to happen is Trump Spirit-bombing his own campaign (again).

In other news, /pol/ has apparently "doxed" Correct the Record. If it's true, it seems to be a partial record of who was involved.

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/92416990

http://imgur.com/a/Pqziq

I'm not sure how much to trust Motherjones, but here's a relevent CTR quote from them;

Correct the Record’s staff (18 and counting) is crammed into a newsroom-style bullpen in the back corner of the offices of American Bridge 21st Century, Brock’s Super-PAC. “They’re always there; they’re always working around the clock,” former Clinton White House adviser Paul Begala says of the crew. “I always tease David that he finds all of these nerd virgins and locks them away in a vault where they never see sunlight or have a drink or get laid. But God Bless them!”

 

[JU 199]

Donald is coming after disloyal reps

This is not a predictable or typical election and if you think these surveys represent election day you're just dumb.

No, it isn't typical election but pollsters live on die on the effectiveness of their predictive models. They don't want to be wrong under any circumstances. They could be wrong but broad scientific polling is the only way of tracking how the race moves. Without it you'd have two camps of people insisting they're gonna win because because no real predictions exist apart from fee- fees. Their echo chambers would be invincible.

It's better this way even if the polls are off at the end.

 

[Chiang Kai-shek]

There is a Planned Parenthood clinic/office near the highway that gets picketed almost every day, and I did notice most of the protesters are Latino.

I think I read somewhere that Latinos are pretty conservative, aside from the border issue. If I'm correct a lot of latinos are very religious, which could be beneficial to Republicans if Republicans weren't retarded.

 

[Internet War Criminal]

So how in the tank is moderator Martha Raddatz for the Democrats?

Obama made her second husband an FCC chairman and he was at their fucking wedding


The incestuous relationship between the democrats and journos is frankly scaring and the biggest threat to our Republic

 

[JU 199]

The incestuous relationship between the democrats and journos is frankly scaring and the biggest threat to our Republic

The relationship between politicians and the media has become way too close but its not a uniquely dem problem. Its the political system in general.

 

[Internet War Criminal]

 

[Internet War Criminal]

How corrupt are the Democrats?

After wikileaks revealed that the DNC Chair worked behind the scene and make sure Sanders would not get the nomination she stepped down and join the Hillary Campaign while a new impartial replacement was selected.

The new wikileaks reveals that the current DNC Chair also worked behind the scene to make sure Sanders would not get the nomination lol

 

[JU 199]

The new wikileaks reveals that the current DNC Chair also worked behind the scene to make sure Sanders would not get the nomination lol

Yes the DNC is terrible. Everyone knew that during the primaries all the dox do is confirm it. I'm just saying If someone hacked the GOP servers you would find similar shit. Politics sucks now and everyone is as bad as each other.

 

[Pikimon]

One of the only polls I know of that shows Trump ahead is the LA Times Daybreak poll.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

They work differently. They have 3000 people selected to try and match the demographics of the country and monitor those people's opinions every single day, averaging it over the last week. With that, they've found Trump ahead.

That poll only has him ahead because the methodology of the poll is significantly different and serves a different purpose. It's not meant to be an indicator of what the election is going to be but rather a gauge on trends. Meaning that if the sample they have gathered starts off trending Trump or Republican from the get-go it's going to be more likely to be leaning Trump from the get-go

Which is reflected both by their methods and by their data points (http://cesrusc.org/election/)

Do you contact a different group of people each day?
No. Unlike typical polls, which contact a different sample of people for each survey, the Daybreak poll uses the same panel of approximately 3,200 people, questioning about 450 of them each day in order to get to everyone each week.

It's a repeated-samples analysis which is great for current trends, but less so for predictions.

But please go ahead and cite one of the few polls (and not meta-analysis) where Trump is consistently ahead despite a clear misunderstanding of how statistics or what meta-analysis are. It's not like 538 is the only analysis out there lol.

 

[Skeletor]

Donald is coming after disloyal reps

View attachment 143348



No, it isn't typical election but pollsters live on die on the effectiveness of their predictive models. They don't want to be wrong under any circumstances. They could be wrong but broad scientific polling is the only way of tracking how the race moves. Without it you'd have two camps of people insisting they're gonna win because because no real predictions exist apart from fee- fees. Their echo chambers would be invincible.

It's better this way even if the polls are off at the end.

Ya, I'd love to hear what evidence is more credible than polling data seems like the other side is just gut feeling.

 

[millais]

even Katsu gave up on a Trump victory. When a true believer like that gets disenchanted, you know it's over for sure.

 

[HarryHowler]

Ya, I'd love to hear what evidence is more credible than polling data seems like the other side is just gut feeling.

The whole thing reminds me of 2008, when people were claiming the polls were grossly overstating Obama's percentage of the vote. The people making those claims were at least doing so off an actual recognised voting phenomenon (the Bradley Effect), however; I've not seen any real explanation as to why that would be happening this year, beyond claiming that "only cucks and crooks will vote for Hillary" or that the polls are under-estimating the Republican base, who are hugely excited about Trump (which was the same argument that people made - at least initially - about Sarah Palin).