I have this sneaking suspicion that they may just be going panic-mode. For all the cope of "so it's back to SB numbers, so what? the game's not dying," that is not how corporations work. Corporations don't assume they're going to hemorrhage huge chunks of their revenue stream apropos of nothing.
I think Hiroi was originally intended to write more than just this one expansion. I wouldn't be surprised if they had started working on a skeleton written by him, only to have to abandon everything about it and never let him touch the lead writer's chair again.
All that said, yeah, much more likely is that the team is just being managed in a completely incompetent way and we're looking at a Bioware situation: the leads are completely fucking clueless and wasting time on extremely basic things because they're fundamentally unfit for the role and were phoning in all of their work. Advancing in the project without really having any clue or ability, their ineptitude having been covered for by far-more-competent peers.
I certainly don't believe that their board and shareholders would have looked at the "45% drop for operating income YoY " stuff in the quarterly earnings call, and just nodded like "yes, to be expected." Especially not when 14 is the entire company's golden goose, and the cash cow that keeps them afloat.
I think they probably expected a slowdown, because the late-ShB/EW surge was very obviously a temporary rally that wasn't going to be sustained long term, but suspect they were expecting a minor contraction (probably a slightly intensified version of the customary drop during post-expac patches) while maintaining a direction of overall growth, or at least somewhat steady profitability.
Not crashing like an avalanche because the DT patches proved to be such a mess of post-expansion mismanagement that even the diehard complainers that care enough to complain about things have started shutting up and checking out.
TBH I think they need to start seriously evaluating the possibility of a successor MMO, if they plan to seriously stay and compete in the MMO space going forward, because i don't think 14 has life in it to last for that much longer before ending up in a slide towards the position of 11: a steady but small playerbase of committed nostalgics, and basically no growth. I strongly doubt it can last another three expansions, or whatever they were talking about having planned for, without continuing to shrink.
I just don't know if they actually have the talent to pull that new game off, though.
Dawntrail was the result of giving control over to the "new generation" of talent that they had been cultivating in junior and assisting positions since 2.0/3.0, and that was a disaster. I still want them to publicly crucify Hiroi as an apology for 7.0, but they'd still have to scrounge up a good writer from somewhere even if they have tossed him out of the writer's chair now.
Maybe if they forced the oldheads back into the trenches, they could salvage things, but then I think that's also a bad idea for a variety of reasons, not least that they can't indefinitely rely on aging talent.
So IDK if there is really any good option for them here, other than hoping that they magically find a new generation of necessary talent somewhere.