UN Brazilian Election Megathread - Bolsonaro Wins HUEHUEHUEHUE

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Bolsonaro wins

I figured I'd start this thread in a similar manner to the Swedish one, about a topic of considerable importance this weekend which we all forgot about.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_general_election,_2018
General elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on 7 October 2018 to elect the President, Vice President and the National Congress. Elections for state Governors and Vice Governors, state Legislative Assemblies and Federal District Legislative Chamber will be held at the same time.

So, who do you think is going to win? Will @AN/ALR56 come back to life and educate us? Polls looks quite good for Bolsonaro as God-Emperor of the southern half of the New World.
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Haven't been following this election either (have a brief recollection of seeing the thread talking about him being the guy who got stabbed), but have a couple of non-Brazilian Pokéfags weigh in:
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:story:

This was in the spoiler tag btw, it's a more level-headed, informative look into it that the latter completely overlooks because "bu-bu-but the gays":
Bolsonaro like Trump has the high likelihood of serving two terms, ie. eight years. Outside of being a reversal of Latin American pink tide alongside his fellow authoritarian Ivan Duque of Colombia, Bolsonaro's election shows a distinct shift in Brazilian geopolitics, shifting from South-South cooperation(translation to Simple English: investing in Africa and Southeast Asia) and alternative power blocks(also translation to simple English, leaving BRICS and Russia/China/India axis) to a more early Cold War geopolitics(translation to Simple English: opening up Native American lands/Amazon forest and public resources for Western companies as well as joining Cold War era Atlanticist groups like the OECD, which Colombia and largely left-wing Costa Rica are expected to join soon).

Bolsonaro's election is also a significant shift in oil markets, as his privatization efforts will bring the overall oil prices down. This can cause global deflation which will most likely cause a recession somewhere, even if that somewhere doesn't turn out to be US like in the 1980s oil glut.

Why did this happen? Well, lots of reasons. Cambridge Analytica, Operation Condor 2.0, Steve Bannon etc. but there is only one true culprit here, corruption. Brazil remains one of the most unequal countries in world, with one of the largest gaps in its HDI(759 for 2017) to IHDI(578 for 2017), making it one of the most unequal countries in the world that happens to one of the world's largest economies. This comically large gap is the main sources of pain for Brazil's centrist parties, and as of now it will be the Achilles' Hell for the Brazilian left.

It didn't need to be this way, of course. Lula and Rousseff could have chosen a more Norway or Scotland approach to diversify Brazilian economy from manufacturing and oil production or chosen a more Chilean/Argentinean approach and seek closer relationships with European Union. This would not have stopped right from taking power, but it would have stopped an actual and open fascist taking the presidency(and yes, all of these apply to former liberal President Santos of Colombia, but for opposite reasons).

So, can Bolsonaro fix Brazilian corruption by completely burning everything to ground? The answer is... mixed to say the least. While these sorts of authoritarian leaders continue to gain traction because the increased economic stability, this often comes at a cost. You see, these sorts of "shock therapies" are very good for gaining a quick growth that will help a larger mass of people to reach upper middle-class status far more quickly than Workers Party government. But eventually the bubble will burst, horribly. Brazil already seen this movie with the military dictatorship, which got popular with the Brazilian Miracle period, only to dissolve back into nothingness with hyperinflation. However, the so called Brazilian Miracle lasted for 4 years with its effects continuing for about 7 years, so Bolsonaro will likely only see negative political ramifications years after his presidency.

Another thing to remember is of course even if the Bolsonaro's political bubble bursts with its economic bursting he would have lifted tons of people out of poverty by doing absolutely nothing, because of capitalism works. We see something similar with Trump's early presidency which largely rode off Obama era policies until he started developing his own economic policy (or lack thereof). As Temer government hasn't successfully ripped apart the social security net Worker's Party built(because of most of it are constitutional parameters introduced after the end of military dictatorship, meaning not even Bolsonaro can destroy willy nilly) Bolsonaro will have at least two years of a great economic stability.

tl;dr he is here for a long time, and he might be the president to bring Brazil into OECD, and your oil expanses will probably go down a bit.
 
Isn't this the same guy who got fucking stabbed and all of the Left-leaning MSM outlets were practically celebrating it?

The same. Ever since that assassination attempt and the world media practically fucking cheering it I've been hoping this dude won (even though I'm just some gringo half a continent away). I may be wrong here, but I don't think Jair went to the last debate before the election since his numbers were so high, in part because of that failed assassination boosting his popularity; and because he was still healing from it.

Also, rev up those engines:
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I'm not up to date on Latin American politics, though I have read a lot of political history of the region from the 70s to the 90s. There is so much corruption that I'm skeptical of their elections by default. Brazil especially has had their elections fucked with in all kinds of ways historically. I'm fine with whoever they want to lead, I just hope the people got a fair election.
Not brazilian myself but their elections go something like this:
1) A party wins the election.
2) Does decent. Guarantees stability.
3) Corruption happens.
4) New elections, Lula joins.
5) Enjoy the traps in Rio.
6) ?????
7) The other party wins. Repeat.
 
Overdramatic leftists being overdramatic as usual:
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Now that hashtag has a lot of the expected REEE'ing and salt, but when I opened it I got this fuckin' guy as the first tweet:
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:story:

A lot of obvious woke foreigners talking down to actual Brazilians, but the nice thing I'm seeing in the replies is the BR's basically replying back with "fuck off you aren't even from here"
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"No I'm not actually from Brazil, but Brazilian Trump is bad you unenlightened savages!"
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:story:
 
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I have my reservations about Bolsonaro but like with Trump the sheer amount of schadenfreude I get from seeing screeching leftists and literal communists is already winning me over. Bonus points for an SA pinkoid goon unironically saying anyone else doesn't understand true suffering and will break easily.
A commie with the coat of arms of the Libyan Socialists under Gaddafi. Noice.
 
A quick mining run from reddit

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What is that guy second from the bottom talking about? Right-wing government in no way necessarily implies anti-science. Also, if you describe people deciding to elect unconventional candidates because they're sick of the entrenched government elite fucking them about as "populist horsehit", I have very little faith in your ability to empathize with other people. This is what really gets under my skin about Reddit: It's composed of some of the most privileged people in the world who think they should be able to impose their ivory tower ideals on the rest of the world because they think they know better.
 
There's other Tumblr posts in Portuguese under the "bolsonaro" tag, but I can't read them, so have the English posts instead.

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Saved the best for last:
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There seems to be an increasing effort to tie every election result to global warming, as if conservative politicians have higher CO2 output when they speak, as oppose to progressives.

So voting left is a vote for Earth, stated unironically.
 
Oh cool. Someone that MIGHT be sane won

Too bad Brazil will probably stay a insignificant nation.
 
To any Brazilians here, how much of a truly "far right" candidate is this guy? I've been reading articles from most of the major MSM sources, and one red flag that I'm seeing is that they all repeat the same 5-6 quotes, some of which decades old, which usually isn't a good sign. He also seems to have a lot of black support for someone who is allegedly fiercely anti-black.

Is he as anti-LGBT as they're trying to paint him, or are they mostly old quotes that he's backed off from? Does he actually support dictatorship and the murder/imprisonment of political dissidents, or is that just dishonest framing and lying as they've done to others?
 
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