- He wants to reconnect with Drexel, but he is not 100% sure why he is mad. He has an idea, and if it is what he thinks it is, Drexel doesn't 'respect [him] enough to know that he would never let that kind of situation ever happen'.
Catching up on the Elissa Clips now reminds one of an oddity in his wording that's worth revisiting for a moment as it
might be hinting at some new information:
We can never be certain when trying to decipher whatever word salad spews out of his swiss-cheese brain at this point, but a lot of people heard it the same way as your interpretation that he was engaging in some perspective-taking from Drex's standpoint along these lines:
If what Drex is mad about - how do I say this cryptically? If what upset Drex is what I think it is, it would be reasonable if it were correct. However - however - that would mean that Drex doesn't realize[,] that "I [Drex] know and respect him [Nick] enough to [know Nick would] make sure that that didn't happen." But since he won't talk to me about it, I can't be sure.
Alternatively, there is always the interpretation taking his words literally, speaking in the first person throughout without anything needing to be removed or added:
"If what Drex is mad about - how do I say this cryptically? If what upset Drex is what I think it is, it would be reasonable if it were correct. However - however - that would mean that Drex doesn't realize that I know and respect him enough to make sure that that didn't happen. But since he won't talk to me about it, I can't be sure."
Another reason the literal interpretation may make sense is this: if he had merely been alluding to prevailing theories like Drex being pissed that Nick lied to his face about there having been no drug use in the home or Drex being pissed that Nick poisoned a child that Drex cared about as something of an uncle figure, then why feel the need to couch this discussion in such admittedly "cryptic[]" terms? He eventually became very open about the drugs to the point of a guilty plea with no expression of remorse before or since about the "fun" drugs that he misses so very much, and he has already trotted out a litany of copes about the daughter's positive test that he could convey to Drex just as he has to the entire Internet, so there should no longer be any reason to "cryptically" tapdance around what he thinks Drex thinks about
those topics rather than simply state why he thinks Drex is mistaken about them.
If the literal interpretation is the correct one, then it would instead suggest that he thinks Drex thinks that
something about the drug investigation or CPS investigation ran the risk of going badly
for Drex in some way, and Nick is "cryptically" reassuring Drex he would "know and respect [Drex] enough" that he would have made sure "that
that" thing - which is somehow adverse to Drex's interests or otherwise potentially burdensome or embarassing for Drex - "didn't happen," so Drex no longer has to worry about it. In other words, it almost sounds like Nick's message to Drex is essentially
"your secret's safe with me."
But what on earth could
that thing even be? It's too bad that
whatever tea Drex spilled to Meme Copium will never come to light until a "certain event" that even Hardin's best efforts may never bring about.
