Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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AJneedsElocution said:
New report from Hong Kong based labs estimated r0 of 3.3 to 5.5. So worse than than reports from yesterday

www.biorxiv.org

Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak

Backgrounds There has been a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia outbreak in China since December 2019, and which spreads internationally. This is the first study to quantify the basic reproduction number, R , of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak. Methods Accounting for the...
www.biorxiv.org www.biorxiv.org


fuck china
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So
We're fucked
Well damn, I guess I should've listened and went out and bought supplies.
 
Deodar said:
anyways yeah this is all pretty bad, but there is one aspect that I feel most all of us have collectively overlooked, and that's the impact the virus will have on both our foreign and domestic lolcows. Most aren't exactly paragons of cleanliness (Chris, Tommy Tooter), so I ask; when do we start a sitewide death poll for all major cows?
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We already had that discussion last month. Though in fairness, "dies from chink plague" wasn't on anyone's Lolcow Death Pool predictions.

Also an appropriate music entry:
 
I'm willing to bet any amount of money that China isn't bothering testing anybody coming in with symptoms... unless they rank high in the party and/or have some regional or national importance... why bother? In the west, the test is new. I don't know how long it takes to manufacture the reagents, what they cost or how long the testing takes. It is conceivable that some areas, even entire nations may hit a point where their health care systems are so swamped with genuinely ill or the 'worried well', that testing everyone becomes impossible. I'll be curious to find out if I can, what testing criteria will be.

Isolation - not possible to truly isolate those who ARE positive & really ill... we'll end up with the 2020 equivalent of 1918-1919 flu wards in some areas. Western hospitals don't have a ton of excess capacity at the best of times. For profit systems aren't going to maintain & staff more than X number of spare beds - too costly. Publicly funded systems... don't get me started. I'll say this for my area - 5-6 genuine cases of KungFlu would be a problem. Higher than that & we're talking a real mess with loads of medical unintended consequences.

Something has been bothering me about that oft shown shot of all those backhoes herded in that field in China. I don't think I saw any real disturbed ground - save for the tracks they made going into that field. I don't recall seeing any holes in the ground nor did I see dump trucks interspaced among the backhoes being filled with dirt. I'll have to find that video again but it reeks of a propaganda move more than anything. Several here made the very good point that it would be much faster & more efficient to put up tent hospitals.
 
So a serious question, what about all the transported goods from China to the rest of the world. Hopefully, they already go through disinfecting but is it good enough to make it safe?
 
every chinese person in my city is wearing masks, it’s only a matter of time till we have a case here
i’m stocking up on the essentials, lube, liquor, and weed

edit: my full list of shit atm, i’m not here for a long time, i’m here for a good time
•a few books
•vodka
•some lube
•30 bucks worth of shitty weed
•slightly small gas mask with filter
•cheap masks (not good ones)
•some dry goods
•coffee
•a pocket knife
 
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AJneedsElocution said:
I may have fucked up here,it was reported as new and has been referenced as new a few places,but it seems it was actually published yesterday. i edited my initial post to clarify

i stick by my last line tho

fuck china :optimistic:
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Was this number ever decreased though? If it was, I'm going to regret going full panic mode.
 
Judge Holden said:
Also hate to be that pony but how long till we get a good old fashioned "virgin cleansing myth" with this shit?

Ya know, the whole "sex with a virgin will cure your AIDs/Ebola/Autism" thing that resulted in signs like this springing up all over africa once the nigs there took things to predictable extremes
View attachment 1116504

Reason im asking is that if yall could be good enough to start the rumor ball rolling then maybe if I advertise my virginity with some kind of attraction sign I can finally get some china* from realtrue ladies looking to not die of Brianna Wu-Flu

* lol this classic christorical euphamism just became that much more amusing and appropriate
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Nah. They're Chinese. Their next logical step will be to turn to TCM and murder another exotic species to extinction in the belief a tea made out of their legbones will cure the new AIDS, or to decide eating another animal alive is the key to it all, thereby creating a new zoonotic plague on top of the one they've already got. You know some chumps are currently thumbing through the TCM books, looking for which bit of a tiger, platypus or bat should be used to treat the bad chi running through their systems.
 
DefCon Dumb said:
I'm willing to bet any amount of money that China isn't bothering testing anybody coming in with symptoms... unless they rank high in the party and/or have some regional or national importance... why bother? In the west, the test is new. I don't know how long it takes to manufacture the reagents, what they cost or how long the testing takes. It is conceivable that some areas, even entire nations may hit a point where their health care systems are so swamped with genuinely ill or the 'worried well', that testing everyone becomes impossible. I'll be curious to find out if I can, what testing criteria will be.

Isolation - not possible to truly isolate those who ARE positive & really ill... we'll end up with the 2020 equivalent of 1918-1919 flu wards in some areas. Western hospitals don't have a ton of excess capacity at the best of times. For profit systems aren't going to maintain & staff more than X number of spare beds - too costly. Publicly funded systems... don't get me started. I'll say this for my area - 5-6 genuine cases of KungFlu would be a problem. Higher than that & we're talking a real mess with loads of medical unintended consequences.

Something has been bothering me about that oft shown shot of all those backhoes herded in that field in China. I don't think I saw any real disturbed ground - save for the tracks they made going into that field. I don't recall seeing any holes in the ground nor did I see dump trucks interspaced among the backhoes being filled with dirt. I'll have to find that video again but it reeks of a propaganda move more than anything. Several here made the very good point that it would be much faster & more efficient to put up tent hospitals.
Click to expand...
The method already exists it’s called RT PCR and it takes some hours to be performed, one of the reagents needed are called primers which are basically a short sequence of nucleotides that compliment the virus sequence specifically, the primer template sequences are already published in the WHO website Link, the laboratories that published the protocols are sending the primers to those who make enquiries but no idea how long shipping takes.
Also RT PCR is pretty much the gold standard for diagnostic test in this case as this looks directly for the presence of the virus DNA, and can detect the presence from a very small of virus particles, it also works either if they show symptoms or not.
 
Chlorhexedine, formaldehyde, alcohol & bleach work. Known coronaviruses are still infectious a good 3 hours after being coughed or sprayed on a hard or spongy surface - not sure about this one but that's a start.

I'd spray packages with a mix of water & bleach & let that dry for now; until better guidance comes out.
 
Super Book said:
Was this number ever decreased though? If it was, I'm going to regret going full panic mode.
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The lowest estimates have been around 1.7-3.5, the assumed number over the past 2 days was somehwere between 3.6-4.0 (this was from UK based labs here https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1)


On the offchance Alex Jones last 20 years of sperging about illuminati population control is right my musical contribution
www.youtube.com

TOXIC HOLOCAUST - "International Conspiracy" (Official Track)

TOXIC HOLOCAUST - "International Conspiracy" from the album 'Chemistry Of Consciousness' SUBSCRIBE: http://bit.ly/RelapseYouTube Order at Relapse: http://bit...
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
 
So I just talked to somebody who works in the children's hospital here: there was a memo about virus symptoms on Monday and the importance of reporting on it. Friday they sent out another memo saying they'll fit people for custom masks this week.
 
Ivan Shatov said:
Slides describing the nature of Corona Chan. Better than average chance it's CRISPR edited.

View attachment 1116575
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I've been extremely reluctant to weigh in on this and still don't want anyone to take my opinions too seriously because I'm just riffing. It's been unbelievable to me that China would use something so chaotic and unpredictable as a weapon (experiment gone wrong would maybe seems more believable?), but so many things seem so weird about this virus.

Not familiar with the specific SARS virus genes, but fuck, if this person actually used the given sequence and didn't just mess with the input to troll tinfoils on the internet, that insertion is wild. Going to go check it out for myself & will update later. For anyone interested, the WuFlu sequence is here. I remember the other day a scientist said that it looked like the Wuhan virus had almost the same reservoir as the SARS virus, which seemed suspicious because using a phylogenetic tree tool shows that the SARS-like bat virus didn't descend from SARS, the two viruses descended from a common ancestor. Assuming that the SARS-like bat virus wasn't transmissible to humans (which is a reasonable "if" to be fair), the virus would have had to recreate the same feature analogously. Interested to see more data on that. Is there a discord or group chat for computational biology nerds looking at this stuff?

Going to stress again the thing I've been concerned about the past few days. Despite this new virus appearing to have strong homology with the SARS-like bat coronavirus (like 95% iirc), bats aren't around in China at this time of the year. They're all hibernating. So this could not have come from eating bat. That's why the "snake" theory came about, but if you read the actual paper it's just bunk science. Not to mention it'd be unprecedented for it to be so generalized that it could quickly jump to reptiles from a mammal. Maybe it did come from some mammal that had come into close contact with bats, but we have no real informed guess on that, and I suspect you'd see more mutation if it switched to an animal that wasn't a bat species or closely related to bats, right? Bats are actually pretty closely related to primates, so that jump is a bit easier to make.
 
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