Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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Don't worry about it there is only 130 people infected so I don't understand why everyone is freaking out about the 321 people being infected anyways the 647 people infected should just drink orange juice they will be fine, see look the government says the 1552 people infected will make a speedy recovery. Totally not a big deal guys the common flu is worse and kills more people then the current 3429 people infected with corona virus.
 
Disheveled Human said:
Don't worry about it there is only 130 people infected so I don't understand why everyone is freaking out about the 321 people being infected anyways the 647 people infected should just drink orange juice they will be fine, see look the government says the 1552 people infected will make a speedy recovery. Totally not a big deal guys the common flu is worse and kills more people then the current 3429 people infected with corona virus.
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I can't tell if this is sarcasm.
 
Terrorist said:
Sadly, the chinks are responding to this better than many westerners would. We'd be debating whether the virus is feminist or not, or if it's anti-semitic, and worrying about how it'll effect are freedumbs to watch capeshit and do sodomy. "Uh but what if somebody sexually identifies as the virus? Should we literally genocide them, hmm?"

The chinks are living in 1984 but we're living in Brave New World. Don't act like this wouldn't be a disaster if it emerged in a western country, we are as inept and delusional as them, albeit in different ways.
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Western countries don't eat raw bats and have open-air meat markets where everyone squeezes the steaks and cross-contaminates the fuck out of everything
 
So i got a text from a friend who is a nurse, she will not be able to go for a concert trip next month, they blocked all not mandatory days off for her whole department.
 
Terrorist said:
Sadly, the chinks are responding to this better than many westerners would. We'd be debating whether the virus is feminist or not, or if it's anti-semitic, and worrying about how it'll effect are freedumbs to watch capeshit and do sodomy. "Uh but what if somebody sexually identifies as the virus? Should we literally genocide them, hmm?"

The chinks are living in 1984 but we're living in Brave New World. Don't act like this wouldn't be a disaster if it emerged in a western country, we are as inept and delusional as them, albeit in different ways.
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You seem to live in your own world were 95% of people are SJWs when it's actually the other way around. I think that word starts with an A.
 
mindlessobserver said:
What I wonder is what the Chinese Government knows that we don't. They didn't flip out like this over SARS.
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One method of ensuring political legitimacy and longevity for authoritarian states is playing up shit like this. SARS was a black eye for the CCP; this gives them an opportunity to look more proactive (lol) while establishing justification for tight control. The Chink governments of 2003 versus 2020 are very different. The CCP has every incentive to simultaneously downplay and overplay the virus if that makes sense.
 
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Terrorist said:
Sadly, the chinks are responding to this better than many westerners would. We'd be debating whether the virus is feminist or not, or if it's anti-semitic, and worrying about how it'll effect are freedumbs to watch capeshit and do sodomy. "Uh but what if somebody sexually identifies as the virus? Should we literally genocide them, hmm?"

The chinks are living in 1984 but we're living in Brave New World. Don't act like this wouldn't be a disaster if it emerged in a western country, we are as inept and delusional as them, albeit in different ways.
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The chinks dont even know what the fuck hand soap is.
 
Ahriman said:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=iriQF8KFkkU
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Shouldn’t these people be wearing masks? Seems more like propaganda and these medics are probably not at all trained in dealing with something like this. I was watching a video where Chinese medical workers don’t even wash their hands between patients.
I just don’t see this hitting us here in the West like in China. We’re way more spread out, the government is a lot better prepared and not corrupt in the same ways as they are in China, we have access to things like telemedicine, and people are generally educated enough to not do a lot of the dumb shit the Chinese populace is doing. I can at the very least say that if someone was diagnosed with this here they wouldn’t be sent on a train back home with a bunch of uninfected people,
 
Kaede Did Nothing Wrong said:
here's the paper he's talking about

the reproductive coefficient is the expected number of secondary cases produced by a single typical infection in a completely susceptible population. if the new coronavirus is estimated to be 3.8 2.6, here are some other high scores
View attachment 1114741
if carriers really are contagious before showing any symptoms, and it's already confirmed to be in the US and Europe, then I guess we should know fairly soon if it's a big one 😷💀🤒

edit- added revised report which lowered estimated R0 to 2.6. It still gives a difficult forecast for containment efforts.
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I want you to scroll back up at that table and look at the “childhood illnesses” on that list and their R-0.

Every one of them is above 5, except measles, which is 12 to 18.

In the absence of effective vaccination, every kid with measles will make 12 to 18 other kids sick. You all have a basic ability to multiply.

Measles is potentially fatal in small children. As is every other “childhood illness” on that list.

The herd immunity level for measles is around 95%. So around 95 kids in every 100 need to have been vaccinated and their immune system have responded correctly to the vaccination for measles outbreaks to be controlled. Controllable.

This is why it only takes comparatively few anti-vaxxer parents for outbreaks to occur and kids to start dying.

This is why you vaccinate. Epidemiology does not care about what you read on Facebook about thimerosal. Measles kills, and spreads like wildfire.

I’m going to leave this here. It’s the report of a team who forecasted the effects of measles infection in real schools in Texas using real school vaccination rates, and then adjusted them downwards by 5% - one kid in twenty, just over one kid per class.

In some metropolitan areas, that increased the size of the modelled outbreak by 4000%.

jamanetwork.com

Vaccination Exemptions and Forecasted Size of Measles Outbreaks

This study uses a decision analytical model to simulate measles outbreaks in metropolitan areas in Texas using 2018 and future reduced vaccination rates.
jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com
 
Yeah, even when they went public with SARS, (not that they had much choice at that point), they didn't react as strongly as they seem to be this time. That's an impressive list of shutdowns, lockdowns, 'do nots' etc... even for China.

The thing is - quarantines & attempts at isolation such as are ongoing & growing don't work. They would if everyone obediently stayed home & had the supplies they needed and medical authorities were able to respond quickly to potential infections called in with appropriately clothed paramedics but that's never the case. Liu has to work or her family doesn't eat. Granny sneaks out to a neighbour's to borrow some rice flour... you get the picture.

What we're seeing is reaction writ large as opposed to pre-emptive action. We live in a crowded world that travels quickly, easily & far. That essentially means we're always going to be behind the curve when it comes to a respiratory/droplet infection capable of causing a pandemic.

The WHO may not be prepared to call this a PHEIC yet but I am & strongly suspect we're seeing the opening days of a genuine pandemic. Time will tell & when all is said & done, MOST people who catch this will have a heavy cold for a week or more & won't die. It will be interesting to see over time, what secondary infections follow this & if recovered patients are left with long term consequences such as we saw, to our surprise, with the West African outbreak of Ebola several yeard back.
 
Now that I think about it, bought some purel and some ASTM masks, I'm starting to get care less about this outbreak and more about the aftermath. We're like two weeks in and everyone's starting to lose their shit. This won't be our roaring twenties, they'll be China's.
 
Jet Fuel Johnny said:
So they barricaded off the city, tore up the roads, and aren't allowing shipping? They didn't stock food and emergency supplies in those cities? They aren't moving food into the cities now?

Seventy-two hour rule, boyos.

In 72 hours they'll be out of food.

That's when the fun will begin.
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Surely they're shipping food/supplies into town. Getting in shouldn't be that much of a problem. If need be, have multiple driver scanning stations, similar to the toll booth concept X miles before Wuhan. Should also be able to send stuff via the Yangtze River. High-priority goods, like medical supplies, could be helicoptered in. But you need to have a general plan to carry out supply operations.

I suspect the Chinese General Staff/civil defense/paramilitary may not have a plan, or have a detailed plan, on how to supply cities in this situation. Or they could just have the PLA do it. Surely they know how to carry out such logistics. If they cannot, or they really fuck it up, that tells us just how well they might be able to supply/support troops in active operations.


@Secret Asshole - you may well be right. Tamiflu's the only medication I could think of that might help. Could be others. Wonder if the CDC will ever answer my question.
 
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Got some hot takes while we wait for our lungs to explode:
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Cooking Mama said:
this is why you always start with China in Plague Inc.
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You kid, but this is what a lot of speedrunning sites tell you to do since it's the easiest, and fastest way to win. Either that, or Saudi Arabia.

>start in China (or Saudi Arabia)
>Evolve Transmissions in the following order: Air 1, Water 1, Air 2, Water 2, Extreme Bioaerosol (shouldn't be needed, but evolve Birds 1 if RNG goes wrong, and Birds 2, and Insects 1 if things go really wrong. Actually, at that point you should just restart the game)
>Evolve Resistances in the following order: Heat 1, Cold 1, Drug Resistance 1, Heat 2, Cold 2 (Evolving Drug Resistance 2 is optional if RNG is being a bitch, but it shouldn't be necessary, and is otherwise not recommended)
>Devolve any symptoms that mutate
>Wait until there are no more healthy people left ( be patient, this can take a while)
>Evolve the following symptoms: Coughing, Pneumonia, Pulmonary Fibrosis, Total Organ Failure, Coma
>If possible, also evolve: Insomnia, Paranoia, Seizures, Insanity (not completely required, but makes curing much harder)
>Evolve Genetic Harding, and Genetic ReShuffle if, and as needed
>Evolve other fatal symptoms like Necrosis, Dysentery, Internal Hemorrhaging, etc (again, shouldn't be needed, but you can if you want)
>Win

Edit: This works for Bacteria, Virus, and Prion, and on all difficulties unless RNG screws you over (Damn you, New Zealand!). Other diseases like Fungus, Parasite, Nano-Virus, and Bio-Weapon require extra steps, but mostly follow the same rules. Special scenarios like Neurax Worm, and Shadow Plague follow completely different guidelines. Genes shouldn't be necessary, but will greatly help out.

Edit: Pulmonary Fibrosis, not Oedema. I got them mixed up, sorry.
 
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