Could the US midterm elections break Trump's presidency?
President Donald Trump. Source: AAP
Voting in the US midterm elections is now underway.
UpdatedUpdated 27 September
By Rashida Yosufzai, Nick Baker
In this article...
Americans have started to cast their ballots in a vote that could shape the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.
Although the US midterm elections are technically held on 6 November, early voting has already started in a handful of states.
Minnesota was the first state to allow early in-person voting on 21 September, with a handful of key states following, including New Jersey, California and Arizona.
Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia offer some form of early voting, meaning every day until 6 November counts for Democrats and Republicans.
It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.
80 per cent chance of winning back the chamber.
Republicans have a 1 in 5 chance of keeping control of the House, while Democrats have about a 4 in 5 chance of winning control of the House.
https://t.co/lyNh30TEIw pic.twitter.com/O38qtMPpIz
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight)
September 25, 2018
The Senate though is likely to be retained by the Republicans.
According to CNN, the Democrats are defending some two dozen seats, including 10 in states where Mr Trump secured victory in 2016, and five of those where he won resoundingly.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just a
30 per cent chance of taking the Senate.
Trump's election one year on: What do Americans think of him now?[/paste:font]
The Democrats could also use their numbers to set up House select committees targeting the president.
"They will have an opportunity to set up special panels and committees to essentially smear President Trump," United States Studies Centre research fellow Dougal Robinson told SBS News in April.
Mr Robinson pointed to the Benghazi committee set up by the Republicans against Hillary Clinton in 2014 to further investigate the fatal 2012 terrorist attack on two US government facilities in Libya.
Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
Once seen as cruising to an easy vote - fulfilling Mr Trump's key promise to stack the Supreme Court with conservative justices - a string of sexual assault allegations has turned the Kavanaugh decision into
all-out political war.
According to CNN's national political reporter Eric Bradner, the scandal and lukewarm response from some Republicans to Mr Kavanaugh's accusers could "drive suburban women away in midterms".
I have no doubt that, if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says, charges would have been immediately filed with local Law Enforcement Authorities by either her or her loving parents. I ask that she bring those filings forward so that we can learn date, time, and place!
— Donald J. Trump (
@realDonaldTrump)
September 21, 2018
Analysts also point to Robert Mueller's investigation as an ongoing potential source of political curveballs.
Mr Mueller has already indicted more than 30 people in connection with his probe into whether members of Mr Trump's campaign colluded with Russia to help get the real estate tycoon elected.
And speculation has swirled in recent days that Mr Trump may fire embattled deputy attorney general
Rod Rosenstein - who oversees the Russia collusion probe.
Doubts over how long Mr Rosenstein can keep the job have swirled since shock media reports that he once suggested secretly recording Mr Trump to collect evidence for ousting him under a constitutional amendment for presidents unfit to remain in office.
Mr Rosenstein's firing - and Mr Trump possibly putting someone more pliable in his place - would set off alarm bells over the future independence of a probe, which has the potential to rock both the midterms and the entire Trump presidency.
US wants ‘partnership, not domination’ in Australia and region[/paste:font]
A
report co-authored by Mr Robinson predicted after the midterms, Congress would be highly unlikely to support a US re-entry to the Trans-Pacific Partnership - a trade deal between 11 Pacific nations including Australia and New Zealand which Mr Trump pulled the US out of last year.
Another issue that may affect Australia is that if the Democrats retake the House, it is likely to lead to lower defence spending.
Additional reporting: AAP, AFP
This article was originally published in April 2018 and updated in September 2018.
