UN US Midterm Elections 2018 Megathread - Blue Wave or Red Tsunami? Because you know we need one.

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November 6th, 2018.
You have less than one month to sperg about the midterm elections.

Hot Takes :
Tis the end of Drumpf!
It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.
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http://archive.is/1rEYe
Could the US midterm elections break Trump's presidency?

President Donald Trump. Source: AAP


Voting in the US midterm elections is now underway.

UpdatedUpdated 27 September
By Rashida Yosufzai, Nick Baker
In this article...
Americans have started to cast their ballots in a vote that could shape the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.

Although the US midterm elections are technically held on 6 November, early voting has already started in a handful of states.

Minnesota was the first state to allow early in-person voting on 21 September, with a handful of key states following, including New Jersey, California and Arizona.


Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia offer some form of early voting, meaning every day until 6 November counts for Democrats and Republicans.

It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.

80 per cent chance of winning back the chamber.

Republicans have a 1 in 5 chance of keeping control of the House, while Democrats have about a 4 in 5 chance of winning control of the House. https://t.co/lyNh30TEIw pic.twitter.com/O38qtMPpIz

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) September 25, 2018
The Senate though is likely to be retained by the Republicans.

According to CNN, the Democrats are defending some two dozen seats, including 10 in states where Mr Trump secured victory in 2016, and five of those where he won resoundingly.

FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just a 30 per cent chance of taking the Senate.

Trump's election one year on: What do Americans think of him now?[/paste:font]


The Democrats could also use their numbers to set up House select committees targeting the president.

"They will have an opportunity to set up special panels and committees to essentially smear President Trump," United States Studies Centre research fellow Dougal Robinson told SBS News in April.

Mr Robinson pointed to the Benghazi committee set up by the Republicans against Hillary Clinton in 2014 to further investigate the fatal 2012 terrorist attack on two US government facilities in Libya.

Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

Once seen as cruising to an easy vote - fulfilling Mr Trump's key promise to stack the Supreme Court with conservative justices - a string of sexual assault allegations has turned the Kavanaugh decision into all-out political war.

According to CNN's national political reporter Eric Bradner, the scandal and lukewarm response from some Republicans to Mr Kavanaugh's accusers could "drive suburban women away in midterms".

I have no doubt that, if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says, charges would have been immediately filed with local Law Enforcement Authorities by either her or her loving parents. I ask that she bring those filings forward so that we can learn date, time, and place!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 21, 2018
Analysts also point to Robert Mueller's investigation as an ongoing potential source of political curveballs.

Mr Mueller has already indicted more than 30 people in connection with his probe into whether members of Mr Trump's campaign colluded with Russia to help get the real estate tycoon elected.

And speculation has swirled in recent days that Mr Trump may fire embattled deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein - who oversees the Russia collusion probe.

Doubts over how long Mr Rosenstein can keep the job have swirled since shock media reports that he once suggested secretly recording Mr Trump to collect evidence for ousting him under a constitutional amendment for presidents unfit to remain in office.

Mr Rosenstein's firing - and Mr Trump possibly putting someone more pliable in his place - would set off alarm bells over the future independence of a probe, which has the potential to rock both the midterms and the entire Trump presidency.

US wants ‘partnership, not domination’ in Australia and region[/paste:font]


A report co-authored by Mr Robinson predicted after the midterms, Congress would be highly unlikely to support a US re-entry to the Trans-Pacific Partnership - a trade deal between 11 Pacific nations including Australia and New Zealand which Mr Trump pulled the US out of last year.

Another issue that may affect Australia is that if the Democrats retake the House, it is likely to lead to lower defence spending.

Additional reporting: AAP, AFP

This article was originally published in April 2018 and updated in September 2018.
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How will Trump keep his voter base energized? "More Winning."
http://archive.fo/VkaHH

TRUMP HAS A TWO WORD RESPONSE WHEN REPORTER ASKS HIM HOW HE WILL KEEP GOP BASE ENERGIZED
5:52 PM 10/10/2018
Benny Johnson | Reporter At Large

President Donald Trump made portions of the White House press corps chuckle with his response on how he intends to keep Republican voters fired up after the ultimately successful confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

“How do you keep your base energized now that you have this Kavanaugh victory?” one reporter asked. Tuesday was the first day that Kavanaugh sat on the court after a contentious battle over his nomination.

“More winning,” Trump said.

Trump was leaving the White House on his way to a campaign rally Tuesday night when he took questions from reporters in the White House driveway.

The president was also asked about the mobs of paid progressive protesters that took over Capitol Hill during the contentious debate over Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Trump was specifically asked about the intense “energy” of the protesters.

“A lot of those were paid protesters. You saw that they are all unhappy because they haven’t been paid yet,” Trump alleged about the protesters. (RELATED: Trump Has A Theory Why The Anti-Kavanaugh Protesters Are So Mad)


Trump brought up his new trade deal with Canada and Mexico as a major policy win. “Our deal with Mexico and Canada was fantastic,” Trump said. “China wants to make a deal so badly. We will see where it goes. But I don’t think they are ready.”
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Trump Will Lose 60 Seats in the house... Unless... Please Visit My Site
http://archive.fo/zHe4o

MATT DRUDGE WARNS OF MIDTERM BLOODBATH: TRUMP TO LOSE ’60 SEATS IN THE HOUSE LIKE OBAMA DID’
2:41 PM 09/14/2018
Peter Hasson | Reporter

Conservative news giant Matt Drudge on Friday made a somber prediction about Republicans’ chances in the November midterm elections, predicting President Donald Trump will see his party lose 60 seats in the House of Representatives.

Drudge, who runs the influential Drudge Report, compared the upcoming midterms to the electoral bloodbath Democrats suffered in the 2010 midterm elections under former President Barack Obama.

Matt-Drudge-Tweet-620x298.jpg

Screenshot/Twitter

“Trump and Obama both have 47% approval at this time of presidency, according to Rasmussen. Trump will also lose 60 seats in the House like Obama did during first midterm!” Drudge wrote on Twitter. (RELATED: Democrats Should Immediately Abolish ICE After Retaking Congress)

He added cryptically: “Unless…”

Democrats have to gain 23 House seats in November in order to flip the lower chamber. Democrats have an 83 percent chance of retaking the House, according to FiveThirty Eight.

Follow Hasson on Twitter @PeterJHasson

Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.
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The Weird :
Mark Taylor "Red Tsunami Prophecy"
http://archive.fo/KJjj2

Mark Taylor (The Trump Prophecies): Most Important Midterm Elections In All Of US History
July 30, 2018 29 3159


Mark Taylor says the upcoming 2018 elections are the most important mid-term elections in all of America’s history. Here’s why…

Mark Taylor interviewed by Greg Hunter on USA Watchdog

Mark Taylor, author of the popular book “The Trump Prophecies,” contends, “If you are part of the army of God, you need to be ready also because there are going to be politicians that are going to resign. We have had the biggest number of resignations probably in history. This midterm election is going to be huge. This is going to be a red tsunami. They keep talking about the blue wave. I think it’s going to be a blue drip, a leaky faucet, and that is all they are going to get. You have had more resignations than we have ever seen. Now is the time to go in and capture this ground and hold it for the Kingdom of God. . . . It’s not a left or right thing. God is moving us towards a place of righteousness. That’s what’s happening right now. So, he’s going to be replacing these people. If you are called to be a judge, senator, congressman or a council person, I don’t care what level local, state or federal, take your place and get ready. If you are in the Army of God and you don’t vote, you need to get off your behind and register to vote. These are going to be the most important midterm elections in America’s history—period.”

In closing, Taylor says, “I don’t think there is going to be another Democrat in the White House for a long time, if ever again. I believe you are seeing the death of the Democrat party right now.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Mark Taylor, co-author of “The Trump Prophecies,” which has been made into a movie that is releasing in early October.

Donations: https://usawatchdog.com/donations/
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Spooky said:
Part of this weird cycle that I can't seem to put my finger on is the media (and many prominent companies) effectively treating the Republicans as the opposition party and what that does to people's perception of who to vote for to kick out those "in charge" and how it will effect turnout and motivate the base of both parties. What does it mean to people when Trump beats or is beaten by these groups who publicly align against him as has happened many times since his inauguration? I wonder how that plays in to all of this.
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I'd actually say it plays enormously. Both the US and UK love a good underdog story and Trump is able to be that underdog precisely because the Media and Dems are still going about as if they are in charge and he's some temporary setback to their plans to build their Mall on the old local park.

It plays far better into the areas he needs to actually win that he's some underdog against the old DC establishment and now he's getting various senators on board like some sort of plucky troop.

You got Ted Cruz who knows the meme world and was once a rival, you got Graham who was quiet and dorky but got one hell of a pep talk from our hero and somehow turned into a sass talking lady-killer, then you got old man Grassley who's really tired of this shit and finally McConnell who's rallying the rest of the school groups out to help.

It's a fucking generic underdog story played large and in the world of politics.
 
TowinKarz said:
Republicans with a spine and popular support are something the Democrats of today have never seen, and have no idea how to "fight" them except play 2016 LOUDER.
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While a year old, Victor Davis Hansen explains it better than I have ever heard before. (Apologies, it’s a long video. But with it VDH is one of the better modern political philosophers and historians. Always worth a read or listen, no matter what your side may be.)


The key point is towards the back half, where he talks about the Republicans ingrained habit of “losing with nobility” rather than fighting to win. The last time, prior to Trump, that a Republican actually fought back and fought hard was Bush’s ‘88 election, when Bush’s campaign manager, Lee Atwater went all in in naming and shaming Michael Dukakis. From Willie Horton to the forerunner of political memes, Wing Dukakis driving a Tank. After that the GOP swore off actually fighting as unsportsmanlike or somesuch.
 
Y'know, I really have no idea what the hell is going down on Election Night. I want to believe the polls that say the Republicans are ahead, but who the hell knows what's going on with polls these days? My leftie friends are frothing mad and screaming VOTE VOTE VOTE, but I've known a couple of them to collapse from the trauma of going to the grocery store, so who knows how many will actually make it to the polls?

What I do know is that I want to be KF, preferably drinking heavily, when it all goes down. Will this be the thread to do it in?
 
kobebyarlant said:
hk245um520u11.png
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Scott Adams just RT'd this early voting information supposedly from NBC News. I haven't been able to find definitive polling data like this out there, but there are multiple reports from NBC, The Hill and CNBC that this is what the numbers are showing:

2018 early voting.png

2018 early voting2.png

That Taylor Swift IG post really moved the needle. Heh.
 
USA Elections seem to be more exciting than they used to be, at least much more than the ones we get in Australia. No matter the result, there will be an undeniable amount of salt.
 
Can someone explain why they think Dems will make any gains after doing nothing these last two years but alienating every one right of extreme-left, doubling down on 2016 tactics and not preparing for the midterms?
 
Brother Rabbit said:
USA Elections seem to be more exciting than they used to be, at least much more than the ones we get in Australia. No matter the result, there will be an undeniable amount of salt.
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American politics has always been a full contact sport. These particular election cycles are more bloody then usual in that they represent the American version of a "Revolution", in that the existing political order in our country undergoes a seismic shift that throws all the old rules out the window. They happen about every 50 years or so and are then followed by a major realignment of US politics.
 
Zaryiu said:
Can someone explain why they think Dems will make any gains after doing nothing these last two years but alienating every one right of extreme-left, doubling down on 2016 tactics and not preparing for the midterms?
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Historical trends plus DRUMPF. Problem is DRUMPF tends to destroy historical trends.

mindlessobserver said:
American politics has always been a full contact sport. These particular election cycles are more bloody then usual in that they represent the American version of a "Revolution", in that the existing political order in our country undergoes a seismic shift that throws all the old rules out the window. They happen about every 50 years or so and are then followed by a major realignment of US politics.
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Personally I'm hoping it leads to a more classical liberal/libertarian Republican party without all the dumb fundie shit in it. Rate me optimistic.
 
The "Dumb Fundie" Republicans are pretty much dead, the only concession they got from Trump was his VP pick. They pretty much packed up after gay marriage went through, there was no great rallying cry for the "good christian" masses to get behind, all the other ones have long since been lost or lost relevance (occultism, satanic panic, pornography, prayer in school, violent video games) They're pretty much done for, any hangers-on at this point are more likely to vote for Pat Robertson than Trump, if they aren't too senile to even know what year it is.

What needs to go next to get some semblance of sane politics going across the aisle again is the militant progressives on the left that still have a chokehold on the Dems, but they can't keep wholesale losing elections for many more cycles before they get excised by a party revolt or leave the "losers" and found their own oddball 3rd party that may get a few local elections won before dissolving into perpetual infighting and join the fundies in the history book of obsolete American political affiliations.
 
Slowboat to China said:
Y'know, I really have no idea what the hell is going down on Election Night. I want to believe the polls that say the Republicans are ahead, but who the hell knows what's going on with polls these days? My leftie friends are frothing mad and screaming VOTE VOTE VOTE, but I've known a couple of them to collapse from the trauma of going to the grocery store, so who knows how many will actually make it to the polls?

What I do know is that I want to be KF, preferably drinking heavily, when it all goes down. Will this be the thread to do it in?
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At the end of the day Republicans are loyal to party, country, and......race *reeeeeeeee*.

No really, though, Republicans vote and they vote Republican. They’re not like Democrats and leftists who eat each other at the very hint of blood. If the polls are accurate, no reason to believe they’re not, then it’s bad news for Democrats which is surprising in some way. There is so much ammo to use against Trump and the Republicans and yet Democrats can’t put out a coherent message or find candidates that can win in purple states. They’ve lost states that could easily flip and focused on states that won’t which means they learned nothing from 2016. They’re still pushing identity politics and creating a larger race divide.

I don’t understand why they keep banging their head against Texas, it will never fucking flip. For the last 10 years it’s all you’d hear, Texas is gonna flop any day now. Beto is sitting on a $38m war chest he won’t share with tight races and he’s like 7-8pts down.
 
I was an Independent/Classical Liberal from the moment I started voting and after the W years, I voted almost strictly Democrat for about 2 years (I also hated John McCain with the burning passion of a thousand suns).

One term of Obama and about 8 years of social media essentially turned me into a volunteer for the first Right Wing Death Squads. I can't imagine what it has done to actual right wingers.

I think the reason the Democrats have continued to lose and will continue to lose is that they believe the unemployed fringe masses on Facebook and Twitter represent America when in reality, successful, normal voting Americans don't give a flying fuck about Twitter and vote almost exclusively against Hollywood Liberalism.

1488, my friends.
 
Sissy Galvez said:
I don’t understand why they keep banging their head against Texas, it will never fucking flip. For the last 10 years it’s all you’d hear, Texas is gonna flop any day now. Beto is sitting on a $38m war chest he won’t share with tight races and he’s like 7-8pts down.
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They keep banging their head against Texas because it's the only red state with a massive population, and a critical source of political power for Republicans as a result. Actually flipping Texas would end any meaningful influence Republicans had on the federal level. Given that since the last major political re-alignment Democrats flipped the previous powerhouse red state with a population even more massive, and party think tanks gave tacit credit to illegal immigration, you can see why the mantra that any red state with significant latino populations is gonna flip is so appealing.

Democrats won't stop fantasizing about flipping Texas until the leadership stops putting all their electoral hopes in importing a more compliant voter base.
 
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