UN US Midterm Elections 2018 Megathread - Blue Wave or Red Tsunami? Because you know we need one.

Pickle Inspector · Oct 24, 2018

Zaryiu said:
Can someone explain why they think Dems will make any gains after doing nothing these last two years but alienating every one right of extreme-left, doubling down on 2016 tactics and not preparing for the midterms?

They live in little social bubbles where nearly everyone they know hates Trump and even the media they consume and most celebrities they follow do too so it’s all very confusing for them.

Doc Cassidy · Oct 24, 2018

My favorite thing about Beto vs. Cruz is that it's a white guy pretending to be hispanic against a hispanic guy pretending to be white. That's pretty funny tbh.

Spooky · Oct 24, 2018

Doc Cassidy said:
My favorite thing about Beto vs. Cruz is that it's a white guy pretending to be hispanic against a hispanic guy pretending to be white. That's pretty funny tbh.

I've seen a couple people posting stuff like "Ted Cruz is hispanic" and "hispanic texans are red." Now to a certain extent that is true, but ffs castizos are not at all like mestizos or pardos even if you just want to distill it to a political-cultural level. Not all hispanics are even remotely the same

PantsFreeZone · Oct 24, 2018

You know what, guys? I'm voting for the Democrats now.

(I apologize for assuming your gender)

millais · Oct 24, 2018

Ted Cruz speaks Spanish with a very pronounced American accent too, and both have less than perfect Spanish grammar, so it's really more like two fake Hispanics both pretending to be down with La Raza, except Ted doesn't have to make as big a fool of himself about it this time because it won't play well with the Anglos he needs to win, whereas O'Rourke has no choice but to pander because that's the sole basis of his campaign strategy.

And I understand Cuban are always either homogeneously white Criollos or African black with very little mixture in between, and Ted obviously is descended from the former, so he's for sure way whiter than most Texan mestizo type Hispanics.

RodgerDodger · Oct 24, 2018

PantsFreeZone said:
Scott Adams just RT'd this early voting information supposedly from NBC News. I haven't been able to find definitive polling data like this out there, but there are multiple reports from NBC, The Hill and CNBC that this is what the numbers are showing:

View attachment 574901
View attachment 574902

That Taylor Swift IG post really moved the needle. Heh.

Georgia is actually the major one. The Dem Candidate for Governor is one of those artificial fake diversity historic moments. She is the first African American Woman running for Governor. So they have thrown $180 million of Soros money at it. Flew in Elizabeth Warren, and other left wing luminaries. She’s also a batshit insane race baiting serial killer, but who are we to notice such things? The official press calls it NEck and neck. The actual on the ground observers are saying GOP+9, Which is pretty in line with early voting. The Dems had hoped to ride the Black Gov chicks tails into a Georgia Black and Blue wave. But all the wypipple have seemingly woken up and started heading to the poles. Worse the old white guy in charge is enforcing Voter I’d, And is checking closely for signs of illegal voters before they attempt to vote. Such as any registration that does not match the citizens drivers license record gets rejected. The local Dems are in a panic.

RP 520 · Oct 24, 2018

millais said:
Ted Cruz speaks Spanish with a very pronounced American accent too, and both have less than perfect Spanish grammar, so it's really more like two fake Hispanics both pretending to be down with La Raza, except Ted doesn't have to make as big a fool of himself about it this time because it won't play well with the Anglos he needs to win, whereas O'Rourke has no choice but to pander because that's the sole basis of his campaign strategy.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=FK2SwR04zcoAnd I understand Cuban are always either homogeneously white Criollos or African black with very little mixture in between, and Ted obviously is descended from the former, so he's for sure way whiter than most Texan mestizo type Hispanics.

To end this weird discussion that's went on for pages with a quick Google search. Ted Cruz is half Cuban from a Cuban father and American mother. He got US and Canadian citizenship because he was born in Canada, he was raised in Houston, Texas. Also his full name is Rafael Edward Cruz, Ted is a alias.

TowinKarz · Oct 24, 2018

Absolutego said:
Democrats won't stop fantasizing about flipping Texas until the leadership stops putting all their electoral hopes in importing a more compliant voter base.

And they won't stop with the demographic destiny nonsense, so, they keep trying to flip Texas as their barometer for when they have succeeded and finally made white conservatives an irrelevant minority, so they can just rule over the dull masses as the enlightened masters they see themselves as.

The only thing they "learned" from Obama was his election wasn't that point of great white cultural obsolescence. They think it's still going to happen, though, which is their fundamental flaw. They don't think they're wrong, they think they've just been premature, or made one tiny error that's since been fixed. (We booted out Bernie, and, are now openly uncivil to the racists) Which is why the 2018 campaign is nothing we haven't seen in 2016, just with new faces.

It's like they've finally realized you can't forecast the weather by a groundhog's shadow... so, they're using a raccoon now, thinking that will surely work.

Wallace · Oct 24, 2018

RodgerDodger said:
The official press calls it NEck and neck. The actual on the ground observers are saying GOP+9, Which is pretty in line with early voting. The Dems had hoped to ride the Black Gov chicks tails into a Georgia Black and Blue wave. But all the wypipple have seemingly woken up and started heading to the poles. Worse the old white guy in charge is enforcing Voter I’d, And is checking closely for signs of illegal voters before they attempt to vote. Such as any registration that does not match the citizens drivers license record gets rejected. The local Dems are in a panic.

Could this be a way of preemptively saying that the Democrat candidate was cheated?

Though I would like to know the source of your "on the ground observers are saying GOP+9" comment.

Ponderous Pillock · Oct 24, 2018

Watching Ted's speech from Monday and daaaamn guy can speak when he wants to.

Stab You in the Back · Oct 24, 2018

Zaryiu said:
Can someone explain why they think Dems will make any gains after doing nothing these last two years but alienating every one right of extreme-left, doubling down on 2016 tactics and not preparing for the midterms?

I can only speak of my experience, but the Republicans have ZERO presence in my traditionally Republican district. All the yard signs I see are for Democratic candidates or generic "Vote Democratic" signs. I have gotten ZERO mailers from Republicans, but have received some from Democrats (who, perhaps wisely, don't identify themselves as democrats on the mailers). I also have received ZERO robo-calls from Republican candidates after usually receiving at least one or two by this point in the cycle. It feels like the Republicans have given up.

Sissy Galvez · Oct 24, 2018

If the Democrats want to win, they need to stop listening to twatter and apologizing for everything. No one likes a loser who says they’re sorry over every little offense.

They also need to stop this bullshit with race. Chelsea Handler went on Ellen the other day and told white women to vote in the interests of black women. The audience was silent and Ellen didn’t know how to react. This kind of preachy, condescending shit from white celebrities and the constant berating of white women is going to cost them the blue wave.

RodgerDodger · Oct 24, 2018

Wallace said:
Could this be a way of preemptively saying that the Democrat candidate was cheated?

Though I would like to know the source of your "on the ground observers are saying GOP+9" comment.

What pre-emptively. It was part of her literal campaign platform until last weekend. When she “oops’d” and invited all the Illegal Immigrants to come out and vote for the Blue Wave. Her opponent is the current GA Secretary of State, who’s job it is to enforce election integrity. She had been using that as a club against him, until she proved, while standing next to Elizabeth “Running Bullshit” Warren, why enforcing those laws was clearly needed.

Polyboros · Oct 24, 2018

King n Yellow said:
To end this weird discussion that's went on for pages with a quick Google search. Ted Cruz is half Cuban from a Cuban father and American mother. He got US and Canadian citizenship because he was born in Canada, he was raised in Houston, Texas. Also his full name is Rafael Edward Cruz, Ted is a alias.

I thought Zodiac was his only alias.

Spooky · Oct 24, 2018

RodgerDodger said:
Georgia is actually the major one. The Dem Candidate for Governor is one of those artificial fake diversity historic moments. She is the first African American Woman running for Governor. So they have thrown $180 million of Soros money at it. Flew in Elizabeth Warren, and other left wing luminaries. She’s also a batshit insane race baiting serial killer, but who are we to notice such things? The official press calls it NEck and neck. The actual on the ground observers are saying GOP+9, Which is pretty in line with early voting. The Dems had hoped to ride the Black Gov chicks tails into a Georgia Black and Blue wave. But all the wypipple have seemingly woken up and started heading to the poles. Worse the old white guy in charge is enforcing Voter I’d, And is checking closely for signs of illegal voters before they attempt to vote. Such as any registration that does not match the citizens drivers license record gets rejected. The local Dems are in a panic.

While I agree with the sentiment, where sre you getting GOP +9? Everything I see is more or less GOP +2 there.

Tanner Glass · Oct 24, 2018

Spooky said:
While I agree with the sentiment, where sre you getting GOP +9? Everything I see is more or less GOP +2 there.

I think it's a shift of +7 as conservatives/GOP are statistically less likely to tell a pollster who they are voting for.

RodgerDodger · Oct 24, 2018

Spooky said:
While I agree with the sentiment, where sre you getting GOP +9? Everything I see is more or less GOP +2 there.

That’s what I am hearing from some High Ranked County and State GOP friends. They seemed pleased that early voting was falling in line with their internal polling and expectations. Personally I think +6 or 7 is more likely. But that all comes down to inside the Atlanta i285 turnout. There has been a fairly massive pushback against Abrams out in the rural and smaller cities. More so than I have ever seen before. In my time down here I have seen plenty of things like “Farmers for XXXX” campaigns. I’ve never seen “Farmers/Police/Firefighters/etc AGAINST (specific candidate)” before. And certainly never to the degree.

Your Weird Fetish · Oct 24, 2018

Tanner Glass said:
I think it's a shift of +7 as conservatives/GOP are statistically less likely to tell a pollster who they are voting for.

So it's a fudge factor. One that suits my biases but we probably ought to be wary of those.

Spooky · Oct 24, 2018

Your Weird Fetish said:
So it's a fudge factor. One that suits my biases but we probably ought to be wary of those.

Well @RodgerDodger said it was internal polling which I am still wary of, but much less so. gop internal feels like it has been pretty good recently

RodgerDodger · Oct 24, 2018

Spooky said:
Well @RodgerDodger said it was internal polling which I am still wary of, but much less so. gop internal feels like it has been pretty good recently

It helps to realize that in Georgia the Dems typically have a hard ceiling of about 44% statewide. It’s something the Media rarely realizes. They had such high expectations for the Georgia 6th Special Election last year, and never understood the ground. The only way for the Dems to exceed that threshold state wide is for a low turnout under the radar election, where the Republican Voters don’t bother to show up. So of course, much like John Ossoff and Stacey Abrams they dump millions and millions of Hollywood dollars onto them and wallpaper non stop media buys. Which in turn sends more voters to the polls, thus causing them to lose.

UN US Midterm Elections 2018 Megathread - Blue Wave or Red Tsunami? Because you know we need one.

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