UN US Midterm Elections 2018 Megathread - Blue Wave or Red Tsunami? Because you know we need one.

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November 6th, 2018.
You have less than one month to sperg about the midterm elections.

Hot Takes :
Tis the end of Drumpf!
It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.
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http://archive.is/1rEYe
Could the US midterm elections break Trump's presidency?

President Donald Trump. Source: AAP


Voting in the US midterm elections is now underway.

UpdatedUpdated 27 September
By Rashida Yosufzai, Nick Baker
In this article...
Americans have started to cast their ballots in a vote that could shape the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.

Although the US midterm elections are technically held on 6 November, early voting has already started in a handful of states.

Minnesota was the first state to allow early in-person voting on 21 September, with a handful of key states following, including New Jersey, California and Arizona.


Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia offer some form of early voting, meaning every day until 6 November counts for Democrats and Republicans.

It's been an inauspicious beginning to the voting season for Mr Trump and his Republican Party, which continue to struggle under the weight of near-constant self-imposed crises and chaos.

80 per cent chance of winning back the chamber.

Republicans have a 1 in 5 chance of keeping control of the House, while Democrats have about a 4 in 5 chance of winning control of the House. https://t.co/lyNh30TEIw pic.twitter.com/O38qtMPpIz

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) September 25, 2018
The Senate though is likely to be retained by the Republicans.

According to CNN, the Democrats are defending some two dozen seats, including 10 in states where Mr Trump secured victory in 2016, and five of those where he won resoundingly.

FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrats just a 30 per cent chance of taking the Senate.

Trump's election one year on: What do Americans think of him now?[/paste:font]


The Democrats could also use their numbers to set up House select committees targeting the president.

"They will have an opportunity to set up special panels and committees to essentially smear President Trump," United States Studies Centre research fellow Dougal Robinson told SBS News in April.

Mr Robinson pointed to the Benghazi committee set up by the Republicans against Hillary Clinton in 2014 to further investigate the fatal 2012 terrorist attack on two US government facilities in Libya.

Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

Once seen as cruising to an easy vote - fulfilling Mr Trump's key promise to stack the Supreme Court with conservative justices - a string of sexual assault allegations has turned the Kavanaugh decision into all-out political war.

According to CNN's national political reporter Eric Bradner, the scandal and lukewarm response from some Republicans to Mr Kavanaugh's accusers could "drive suburban women away in midterms".

I have no doubt that, if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says, charges would have been immediately filed with local Law Enforcement Authorities by either her or her loving parents. I ask that she bring those filings forward so that we can learn date, time, and place!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 21, 2018
Analysts also point to Robert Mueller's investigation as an ongoing potential source of political curveballs.

Mr Mueller has already indicted more than 30 people in connection with his probe into whether members of Mr Trump's campaign colluded with Russia to help get the real estate tycoon elected.

And speculation has swirled in recent days that Mr Trump may fire embattled deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein - who oversees the Russia collusion probe.

Doubts over how long Mr Rosenstein can keep the job have swirled since shock media reports that he once suggested secretly recording Mr Trump to collect evidence for ousting him under a constitutional amendment for presidents unfit to remain in office.

Mr Rosenstein's firing - and Mr Trump possibly putting someone more pliable in his place - would set off alarm bells over the future independence of a probe, which has the potential to rock both the midterms and the entire Trump presidency.

US wants ‘partnership, not domination’ in Australia and region[/paste:font]


A report co-authored by Mr Robinson predicted after the midterms, Congress would be highly unlikely to support a US re-entry to the Trans-Pacific Partnership - a trade deal between 11 Pacific nations including Australia and New Zealand which Mr Trump pulled the US out of last year.

Another issue that may affect Australia is that if the Democrats retake the House, it is likely to lead to lower defence spending.

Additional reporting: AAP, AFP

This article was originally published in April 2018 and updated in September 2018.
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How will Trump keep his voter base energized? "More Winning."
http://archive.fo/VkaHH

TRUMP HAS A TWO WORD RESPONSE WHEN REPORTER ASKS HIM HOW HE WILL KEEP GOP BASE ENERGIZED
5:52 PM 10/10/2018
Benny Johnson | Reporter At Large

President Donald Trump made portions of the White House press corps chuckle with his response on how he intends to keep Republican voters fired up after the ultimately successful confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

“How do you keep your base energized now that you have this Kavanaugh victory?” one reporter asked. Tuesday was the first day that Kavanaugh sat on the court after a contentious battle over his nomination.

“More winning,” Trump said.

Trump was leaving the White House on his way to a campaign rally Tuesday night when he took questions from reporters in the White House driveway.

The president was also asked about the mobs of paid progressive protesters that took over Capitol Hill during the contentious debate over Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Trump was specifically asked about the intense “energy” of the protesters.

“A lot of those were paid protesters. You saw that they are all unhappy because they haven’t been paid yet,” Trump alleged about the protesters. (RELATED: Trump Has A Theory Why The Anti-Kavanaugh Protesters Are So Mad)


Trump brought up his new trade deal with Canada and Mexico as a major policy win. “Our deal with Mexico and Canada was fantastic,” Trump said. “China wants to make a deal so badly. We will see where it goes. But I don’t think they are ready.”
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Trump Will Lose 60 Seats in the house... Unless... Please Visit My Site
http://archive.fo/zHe4o

MATT DRUDGE WARNS OF MIDTERM BLOODBATH: TRUMP TO LOSE ’60 SEATS IN THE HOUSE LIKE OBAMA DID’
2:41 PM 09/14/2018
Peter Hasson | Reporter

Conservative news giant Matt Drudge on Friday made a somber prediction about Republicans’ chances in the November midterm elections, predicting President Donald Trump will see his party lose 60 seats in the House of Representatives.

Drudge, who runs the influential Drudge Report, compared the upcoming midterms to the electoral bloodbath Democrats suffered in the 2010 midterm elections under former President Barack Obama.

Matt-Drudge-Tweet-620x298.jpg

Screenshot/Twitter

“Trump and Obama both have 47% approval at this time of presidency, according to Rasmussen. Trump will also lose 60 seats in the House like Obama did during first midterm!” Drudge wrote on Twitter. (RELATED: Democrats Should Immediately Abolish ICE After Retaking Congress)

He added cryptically: “Unless…”

Democrats have to gain 23 House seats in November in order to flip the lower chamber. Democrats have an 83 percent chance of retaking the House, according to FiveThirty Eight.

Follow Hasson on Twitter @PeterJHasson

Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.
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The Weird :
Mark Taylor "Red Tsunami Prophecy"
http://archive.fo/KJjj2

Mark Taylor (The Trump Prophecies): Most Important Midterm Elections In All Of US History
July 30, 2018 29 3159


Mark Taylor says the upcoming 2018 elections are the most important mid-term elections in all of America’s history. Here’s why…

Mark Taylor interviewed by Greg Hunter on USA Watchdog

Mark Taylor, author of the popular book “The Trump Prophecies,” contends, “If you are part of the army of God, you need to be ready also because there are going to be politicians that are going to resign. We have had the biggest number of resignations probably in history. This midterm election is going to be huge. This is going to be a red tsunami. They keep talking about the blue wave. I think it’s going to be a blue drip, a leaky faucet, and that is all they are going to get. You have had more resignations than we have ever seen. Now is the time to go in and capture this ground and hold it for the Kingdom of God. . . . It’s not a left or right thing. God is moving us towards a place of righteousness. That’s what’s happening right now. So, he’s going to be replacing these people. If you are called to be a judge, senator, congressman or a council person, I don’t care what level local, state or federal, take your place and get ready. If you are in the Army of God and you don’t vote, you need to get off your behind and register to vote. These are going to be the most important midterm elections in America’s history—period.”

In closing, Taylor says, “I don’t think there is going to be another Democrat in the White House for a long time, if ever again. I believe you are seeing the death of the Democrat party right now.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Mark Taylor, co-author of “The Trump Prophecies,” which has been made into a movie that is releasing in early October.

Donations: https://usawatchdog.com/donations/
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greengrilledcheese said:
I was going to feel a little bad about the vid because Pelosi was one of the few Democrats to speak out against Maxine Waters when she advocated harrassing Trump officials. Then I thought about the whole Kavanaugh affair. Fuck that bitch.
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I bet those guys felt dumb when they realized they left the rope at home.
 
Betting markets have republicans at 84% to keep the senate, up from 70% a month ago. Pollsters like Nate Silver at 538 are predicting similar outcomes. It's looking like the House will flip blue, but an upset there is far from inconceivable.

Brett Kavanaugh did not energize the democratic base as much as pundits as hoped. It seems people are largely checked out due to the spectacle of Trump, and midterm turnout will be low, which favors republicans.

Reminder to all the non-burger out there, the US is ruled by a council of 9 philosopher kings that are selected by the President and can be vetoed by the Senate. The nuclear option has been invoked, so only a narrow minority is needed in the senate to confirm appointments Ginsburg is at death's door, so the prospect of another SCOTUS pick makes the senate all the more important.
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Spooky said:
At this rate the Dems only have to wait until America gets more brown to have there be the progressive and liberal parties.
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That's the exact reason Trump won, this "inevitabilty of a browner, more liberal voter base" isn't going to happen.

Browner does not mean more liberal and into IDpol, globalism has fucked everyone in the middle-class, it didn't skip over POCs and selectively target whites, but the Democrat's huge blunder was investing everything in that not only was this demographic inevitability happening, but was complete by 2012 (proof: Obama)

So middle class red America could go get fucked, what are they gonna do? Vote against us? They clearly don't have the numbers anymore, so all that whining from the rust belt is just that, impotent whining, in fact, it's really "dog whistling", they SAY they want jobs and a better economic outlook, but we know what they REALLY mean, that they don't like being ruled by a Black man, well ha ha, shoes on the other foot losers! Now.... superior future here we come! And it starts with Queen Hillary!

And then Nov 8th happened..... they've been in a fit of Brain Fever ever since.
 
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CephalopodEnthusiast said:
What would be formed in its place?
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democratic socialists of america would use it as an opportunity to try and rally support, which would be even better for the right because then you would have scores of thousands more uninitiated liberals spouting off communist talking points they don't understand
 
The Great Chandler said:
lmao! After the 2016 election?
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To be fair, he admitted afterwards that he let his own personal bias creep into the predictions. But if anything, just take his and the media's predictions and account for that bias. Silver is giving it an 80%, which means it's either that bad for Democrats... or it's worse, and he doesn't want to accept it.
 
Lou Wrong said:
He gave Trump's odds in the high twenties on election day, that's higher than he is giving Senate Democrats now. (and higher than any other rating group was giving Trump at the time.)
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By November, we'll know if those corrections they promised to make to their models actually were made and if they work, no need to debate it. We just chill and wait it out.
 
ICametoLurk said:
Betting markets have republicans at 84% to keep the senate, up from 70% a month ago. Pollsters like Nate Silver at 538 are predicting similar outcomes. It's looking like the House will flip blue, but an upset there is far from inconceivable.

Brett Kavanaugh did not energize the democratic base as much as pundits as hoped. It seems people are largely checked out due to the spectacle of Trump, and midterm turnout will be low, which favors republicans.

Reminder to all the non-burger out there, the US is ruled by a council of 9 philosopher kings that are selected by the President and can be vetoed by the Senate. The nuclear option has been invoked, so only a narrow minority is needed in the senate to confirm appointments Ginsburg is at death's door, so the prospect of another SCOTUS pick makes the senate all the more important.
05ff05d10e0633338501e0d6d7a6f47e4b669b751ee93346c5123904cec99b1e.png
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Oddsmakers had far more accurate election predictions in 2016 than most of the media, did they not? Guess because they don't really care, they just want to make money.
 
Morales group was looking forward to smashing the child-sized Trump pinata at the end of the 2016 campaign — but then Trump won and spoiled her plans. So there he stands, fully intact, a silent reminder to her and the dozens of paid canvassers who are dispatched from here every day to do the sweaty, grinding work of going door-to-door to cajole people to get out and vote on Nov. 6.

In California, where Democrats are well-positioned to overcome 80 years of Republican dominance in the wealthy suburbs of Orange County, two GOP incumbents, Reps. Jeff Denham and David Valadao, look relatively strong in heavily Hispanic parts of the Central Valley.

In Arizona, Democrat David Garcia's campaign to become the state’s first Latino governor has struggled to gain traction, even though Clinton came closer to winning that state in 2016 than any Democrat in years.
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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-have-latino-problem-can-they-fix-it-time-n919711

There was a wikileaks document that showed Democrats' opinion on Mexican votes. It said something like "Mexicans are the most brand loyal group of all nations, but if you lose them they will never come back."
 
ICametoLurk said:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-have-latino-problem-can-they-fix-it-time-n919711

There was a wikileaks document that showed Democrats' opinion on Mexican votes. It said something like "Mexicans are the most brand loyal group of all nations, but if you lose them they will never come back."
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Some how they always seem to miss that Texas is a majority Latino Herritage State. And that most of the registered Republicans in Texas have Spanish surnames. Funny isn't that? You would almost think that "not all Latino's Vote democrat!". See, Texas is the perfect counterpoint to the Dem's erroneous assumption that "Demographics = Destiny". Texas has the largest population of US Citizens of Latino or Hispanic Heritage. But it is also the one with the broadest generational spread. Texas has more 2nd, 3rd, 4th and beyond generation "Latino's" than anywhere else. And past 2nd Generation they look, act and behave like any other Catholic American Voters. They are pretty much indistinguishable from Italian or Irish Americans, save perhaps in sobriety, where they fall between the two. They tend to become bog standard Conservative Texans.
 
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