538 is now saying that Democrats are favored to win the Senate.
The tossups are Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. In Nevada a July 13th poll had Masto (D) ahead of Laxalt (R) 44% to 41%, with 9% undecided and 6% for someone else. Of course only the R’s have a third party spoiler from the American Independence Party (if you know any Libertarians please do punch them in the fucking face)
In Arizona we have Mark Kelly (D) and while the Republican primary is on Aug 2nd, the current favorite is Blake Masters. I can’t find a poll but 538 has Kelly ahead by about 1.5%. Kelly portrays himself as a bluedog ruff and tumble combat veteran and astronaut instead of the usual freak show the democrats put up there, so he might be harder to take down with the low-information voters that pride themselves on things like “free thinking” and “non partisanship”
In Georgia we have Warnock (D) vs the Republican challenger Hershell Walker, a number of recent polls are all over the place with Walker down between 3 (Atlanta Journal) and 10 points (Quinnipiac). Walker should have a slight advantage being a famous football player and athlete, however, he has the unfortunate habit of saying really dumb things like you would expect from a former football player and athlete.
In Pennsylvania we see John Fetterman (D) with a 4-10 point leader over the famous retard and and reality tv show host Dr Oz.
In all these cases, Democrats are out fundraising Republicans usually by a factor of 3x or 4x as the usual crew of international oligarchs, billionaires, pedophiles, and other wealthy donors are pouring money into these races nationwide to desperately maintain their status quo
So no clear winners here going into these races but the Republicans have to win atleast one of these races in order to flip the Senate. New Hampshire might flip too if there’s a blowout come November, but without winning atleast one of these seats Democrats will maintain control of the Senate. Very unlikely Democrats will win the other Senate seats in play unless we see some massive momentum towards the democrats by this fall (inflation ends, stock market rallies, taliban steps down from afghanistan, Jesus Christ himself comes down to tell us that abortion is “ok”, etc).