News is still comming in as i post this but this is indded intreating.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629603
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39629603
UN UK Snap election 8th June 2017 - Oh boy another U turn.
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- Dec 28, 2014
Who would think being openly, rabidly anti-Semitic (just like Islams) would have electoral consequences?
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- Jun 23, 2015
I am suprised that it still has relative high numbers among young people. Are they just dense or what?
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- Mar 7, 2016
They started looking deeper into the "Labour surge" and find it's just more 18-24's saying they'll back Labour at the GE. 65+ voting bloc remains rabidly conservative even with the looming threat of a changed system for care coming that nobody really understands.
One of these groups actually fucking votes and it ain't the stoners and uni students.
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- Feb 25, 2013
I saw that graph. Only group where more people would vote Labour was 18-24. After that the gap with Tory voters just grows after.
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- Feb 25, 2013
Wishful thinking.
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- Mar 10, 2013
I've been watching the pro Corbyn sites and even they are highly skeptical of the polls seeing as one of them preassumes an 80% youth turn out.
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- Feb 25, 2013
They're also rather cynical as another poll gives the Tories a majority of 100 while another suggests a hung parliament.
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- Mar 7, 2016
Poll of polls suggests a Tory majority of about 50, most folks I know in the street expect around 70-90, especially with the possibility of a half dozen seats in Scotland turning Blue.
Basically the Ashcroft model also has wild variations in it, as it also predicts the Tories picking up 40 seats, or losing 20. So they're showing the "hung parliament" as the average. As confident as they are using this model, the last time they used it (EU Referendum) voters were only given a binary choice, there's no telling what all the extra input data of multiple parties will actually do to its predictive ability.
Or to sum up the pollsters still seem to need to work hard on their models as the variations are still way too wild.
It doesn't help that May's aides decided to overcomplicate this election and drive home a heavy domestic agenda when they should have mostly enshrined it around May being a steady hand on the tiller, not rocking the boat much aside from a modest NI increase on the self employed and BREXIT WILL BE A SUCCESS which has thrown the election more open than expected.
Little surpise that Nick Timothy, Fiona Hill and Linton Crosby are all allegedly in a three way slapfight that Crosby now seems to be winning because the other two screwed the pooch.
==========================
As its clearly more accurate I slaughtered an oxen at the designated Rural Pillockshire sacrifice ground (we're a bit backwards here but the old ways work) and here is my predicitons from the entrails reading.
It'll be towards the low end of a tory majority, so around 55-60 which is more than comfortable in a General Election but will be quietly seen as a failure on May's part.
Ruth Davidson will be lionized for her work in Jockistan for netting a half dozen Tory MPs to march down to Westminster, which will see the calls for her to stand (perhaps in David Mandell's safe tory seat) in the near future. These calls will become far stronger as she seems to be a combination of Boris and Thatcher, principled but willing for a good photo op, fleet street adores her as a result and we'll see a lot of pro-davidson articles once again begging for her to stand for Tory leadership.
The Lib Dems will lose another seat or two with Tim Farron or Nick Clegg being the "shock loss" of the night as, ironically their heightened poll ratings will just let in Tories in various seats that might have otherwise stayed red.
The expected wipeouts in old Labour strongholds such as Stoke Central and other safe zones that were previously under threat won't happen, but there will still be the odd surprise as seats which haven't flipped since 87 do so once again. There might be another shock like Morely and Outwood, but not as many as first hoped.
Corbyn will survive as he will be vindicated by the fact he'll get a bigger vote share than Ed Miliband did the year previously. "Moderate" Labour MPs who's majorities were at one point threatened will feel more compelled to serve in his shadow cabinet which might see some of the more "fringe" members taken out, giving a much stronger opposition. The PLP won't be too happy, but it's really the only choice they've got.
Blair's proposed "moderate breakaway party" will fail as he's still so toxic to the British Public there's plans for a Chernobyl style Sarcophagus to be built over him funded by public donation.
That's what I'm going with, anyways.
Basically the Ashcroft model also has wild variations in it, as it also predicts the Tories picking up 40 seats, or losing 20. So they're showing the "hung parliament" as the average. As confident as they are using this model, the last time they used it (EU Referendum) voters were only given a binary choice, there's no telling what all the extra input data of multiple parties will actually do to its predictive ability.
Or to sum up the pollsters still seem to need to work hard on their models as the variations are still way too wild.
It doesn't help that May's aides decided to overcomplicate this election and drive home a heavy domestic agenda when they should have mostly enshrined it around May being a steady hand on the tiller, not rocking the boat much aside from a modest NI increase on the self employed and BREXIT WILL BE A SUCCESS which has thrown the election more open than expected.
Little surpise that Nick Timothy, Fiona Hill and Linton Crosby are all allegedly in a three way slapfight that Crosby now seems to be winning because the other two screwed the pooch.
==========================
As its clearly more accurate I slaughtered an oxen at the designated Rural Pillockshire sacrifice ground (we're a bit backwards here but the old ways work) and here is my predicitons from the entrails reading.
It'll be towards the low end of a tory majority, so around 55-60 which is more than comfortable in a General Election but will be quietly seen as a failure on May's part.
Ruth Davidson will be lionized for her work in Jockistan for netting a half dozen Tory MPs to march down to Westminster, which will see the calls for her to stand (perhaps in David Mandell's safe tory seat) in the near future. These calls will become far stronger as she seems to be a combination of Boris and Thatcher, principled but willing for a good photo op, fleet street adores her as a result and we'll see a lot of pro-davidson articles once again begging for her to stand for Tory leadership.
The Lib Dems will lose another seat or two with Tim Farron or Nick Clegg being the "shock loss" of the night as, ironically their heightened poll ratings will just let in Tories in various seats that might have otherwise stayed red.
The expected wipeouts in old Labour strongholds such as Stoke Central and other safe zones that were previously under threat won't happen, but there will still be the odd surprise as seats which haven't flipped since 87 do so once again. There might be another shock like Morely and Outwood, but not as many as first hoped.
Corbyn will survive as he will be vindicated by the fact he'll get a bigger vote share than Ed Miliband did the year previously. "Moderate" Labour MPs who's majorities were at one point threatened will feel more compelled to serve in his shadow cabinet which might see some of the more "fringe" members taken out, giving a much stronger opposition. The PLP won't be too happy, but it's really the only choice they've got.
Blair's proposed "moderate breakaway party" will fail as he's still so toxic to the British Public there's plans for a Chernobyl style Sarcophagus to be built over him funded by public donation.
That's what I'm going with, anyways.
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- Mar 10, 2013
The Lib Dems do seem to have messed up assuming remainers wanted another EU referendum.
Also I bet they're going to be issues on Election Day with students turning up late due to it being held on an exam day.
Also I bet they're going to be issues on Election Day with students turning up late due to it being held on an exam day.
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- Mar 7, 2016
So as we dig into the fun of Yougov's supposedly super duper accurate model we have this for a starters:
And YouGov is one of the few companies which allow you to properly "self select" yourself for polling, so it resulted in Yougov being one of the few pollsters to say Independence for Scotland was winning thanks to MSPs tweeting out that their nat supporters should register and vote YES.
On top of that this is a supposed "seat by seat" poll taking people from across the seats up for election, 640 of them.
With a sample size of 50,000 this converts into.
Er
78 people asked per seat.
Also known as "hilariously insufficient data for anything accurate."
Still, nobody really knows what to make of it as one minute companies which do seem to have adjusted their models continue to put the Tory lead at around 9-12% whilst one which has gone for "MOAR PEOPLE" rather than how they changed their models is pointing to the same result we were supposed to get last time.
And YouGov is one of the few companies which allow you to properly "self select" yourself for polling, so it resulted in Yougov being one of the few pollsters to say Independence for Scotland was winning thanks to MSPs tweeting out that their nat supporters should register and vote YES.
On top of that this is a supposed "seat by seat" poll taking people from across the seats up for election, 640 of them.
With a sample size of 50,000 this converts into.
Er
78 people asked per seat.
Also known as "hilariously insufficient data for anything accurate."
Still, nobody really knows what to make of it as one minute companies which do seem to have adjusted their models continue to put the Tory lead at around 9-12% whilst one which has gone for "MOAR PEOPLE" rather than how they changed their models is pointing to the same result we were supposed to get last time.
- Joined
- Mar 7, 2016
Well Corbyn's now wrong footing May by going to the Leader's Debate tonight after all. Seemingly buoyed by the Yougov wild prediction of +15/-20 Seats for the Tories.
Amber Rudd is going in her place instead.
You might remember her as the shrieking harpie they wheeled out during the EU referendum debates... for the losing side.
Where the fuck is BoJo? Seriously? This is all going wrong and we need him front and centre to sort it out.
Amber Rudd is going in her place instead.
You might remember her as the shrieking harpie they wheeled out during the EU referendum debates... for the losing side.
Where the fuck is BoJo? Seriously? This is all going wrong and we need him front and centre to sort it out.
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2013
Last time I saw him he was on Twitter trash talking Corbyn after Paxo.
Come on dude! We need your devastating charisma!
Still, hopefully Corbachev does something incredibly stupid tonight. Like suggest Manchester was caused by racism or remind everyone he called Hamas and Hezbollah friends. Russell Brand just endorsed him so that will likely cost him a fair few votes.
- Joined
- Jun 13, 2016
That's nothing. We're way more backwards down in the Pig Pen. We've got the big wicker statue all set up on the coast and the sheet music of "Sumer is icumen in" distributed to the town band but alas, Cliff Richard won't return our calls so we've no virgin to sacrifice. So alas, no portents here.
Given the fact that Tory High Command seems to have a freakin' autocannon permanently aimed at its own feet recently it's probably better than they deserve.
This. Ruth Davidson is extremely competent and they should kick her upstairs at their earliest convenience. She'd also wrongfoot the virtue signalling and identity politics brigade being both a woman and a lesbian.
"We can't open parliament, the taxi with the Lib Dems in it hasn't arrived!"
Corbyn will survive because all the opposition have been purged. If he and McDonnell and friends are smart they'll take a leaf out of Neil Kinnock's book and start preparing the groundwork for a more united and effective Labour party, but I fear the Momentum brigade will purge anyone not in line with them and turn it into an exceptional hard-left clusterfuck.
Doesn't he fund the pro-Remain rag "the New European," at least in part? Which I've never seen sold outside of hipster enclaves like Brighton and Hackney and Exeter city centre.
Anyhow. The whole thing with Theresa May not going on the leaders' debates is yet another fucking footbullet. This is still looking like the Tories' election to lose than the Labour Party's election to win. I also suspect that the turnout amongst young voters will be pants and even if it isn't, it'll translate mostly into increased Labour majorities in university cities and London, most of which are safe Labour seats anyhow. But then again Labour seems to give off just as many footbullets themselves...
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- Feb 25, 2013
On Radio 4 no less, a radio station that's turned into a lefty circle jerk as of late.
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- Mar 7, 2016
Luxury, bet your wicker man's made of fancy stuff like birch. We're lucky to make ours out of cut grass.
Whichever close aide gets fired again after the GE is the one who fucked up and put the strategy along a heavy handed domestic agenda when they needed to only talk about Brexit.
Devout Christian female Lesbian, no less. She also steadfastly refuses to stand for Westminster yet. I suspect she wants to slay the SNP dragon first before tilting at the Westminster Windmill.
Fucking Peel P50 more like.
To be honest the Kinnock/Smith reforms have kind of caused this to happen, proper debates wouldn't happen and all the Blairite era intake were all too greedy running after the prize of the leadership to drop out and allow for a unity candidate to form up and take on Beardy.
I have never seen a copy of the New European outside of London, and even then not from many shops around Westminster.
I think this is probably what's going to happen, especially as the TV debates have all had dire ratings and the usual packed crowds of Labour and "undecided" (Labour but lying) crowds that were in them. The places that could swing likely will, and votes are going to be stacked up in the safe seats as usual.
Its fun watching the Beeb and the Tories panic over polls like this though, there's only been the odd dip and one comes from serial "screwups" YouGov.
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- Joined
- Feb 25, 2013
Two mail merged Tory leaflets in one day!
Including this gem in one of them.
Now I'm not voting Labour anyway, but isn't that basically what the Tory campaign has been all through this election?
Including this gem in one of them.
Tessie The Strong And Stable said:
Now I'm not voting Labour anyway, but isn't that basically what the Tory campaign has been all through this election?
- Joined
- Jun 13, 2016
Does it actually say <your area here>? If so, this needs scanning and uploading.
I haven't even had a Tory leaflet, but I've got 3 Green Party leaflets now, the third of which is on slightly more absorbent paper than the nipsy-shredding shiny stuff the others are on.
Then again, despite being a safe Tory seat, there is a town well known for being a hotbed of crunchy granola in my constituency.
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- Feb 25, 2013
No, that would be amazing if it did though!
I've had about 5 so far. 3 impersonal and these two today. I guess my constituency is a swing seat.
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