I almost thought this was legit. How long before wokeshit drives them to the ground and forces them to go back to their roots (ha ha I will take those optimistic ratings I know)? Now that Paizo shot themselves in the foot with PF 2e, when will we see a viable contender to D&D?
I wanted to make it a game; how many bullet points did it take to realize I wasn't summarizing WotC's actual presentation?
Honestly I think the most viable D&D contender will be Older D&D Content. I've been rediscovering a lot of the B/X & 1e/1eA/2eA stuff and as you look at the earlier editions you can see where a lot of the oddities in 3/3.5 came from. And where a lot of the odder bumps in 4e were trying to maintain some level of backwards compatibility,and why they went back to Vancian magic in 5e.
Because as much as Wizards wants to slap a "Zomg this was all made by super racist/sexist Cis-White Male Nazis, please don't be mad with us" warning label on things in current year, as much as they try to woke-reboot classic modules like Ravenloft, that nearly 50 years of content you can pull from and convert without over-much effort is D&D's real secret sauce to market domination, that's what Woke on the Coast has that no one else does. D&D has done a good job of keeping common, consistent language in later editions even when it'd make sense to use other words. Anything that wants to unseat D&D would need to come out hard with its own 50,000 module catalog.
You also have people taking what's effectively the SRD for those earlier editions and making layout improvement, clarifying confusing text, and implementing quality of life improvements that are possible with post-microprocessor statistics. (I mean, like the idea of what DCC tries to do... but my nigga, its not 1974 anymore. Printing technology has evolved. You are allowed to use advances in layout and formatting. Its ok, Gygax won't curse you from his grave if you deviate from double-column newspaper style)
There is also what I like to term the "Horse Problem". Which goes something like this:
In 1980, in the US there were something like 5 times more horses owned by people than 1880, and I think it was double the number of horse owners. Basically both owned horses and people who owned horses increased, but horse transportation is very much done as something that influences the world around it instead of vice versa.
So I think that in 2034 there will be something that will unseat D&D. It might be a new WotC offering, I'm not sure. But I think the number of 'serious' D&D players in the future will increase, but will be a much smaller force in the market place & culture.
It is my honest belief that D&D doesn't appeal to where the wider culture is going. We all bemoan Matt Mercer and how Critical Role has a bunch of ex-theater kids showing up to play games they don't really want to play, but I think that's more a symptom. People want to feel tension and suspense, but don't want to risk the negative outcomes that come along with it. "I want to have this battle come down to Rangar the Xir's strike with Diversity Axe and feel the tension that this Axe blow determines if Hitler Trump IIIX conquers Gendertopia or not...but I don't want me failing to be an
actual possibility."
I think this going to get more and more pronounced and eventually someone will come up with a system, even if its just digitial scan of Matt Mercer's brain as an DM AI, that will give it to them.
Anyway, thank you for coming to my TED talk, and I appreciate your help finding the missing pieces of my jigsaw puzzle.
tl;dr: The slide to woke in table top games became inevitable when they got rid of THAC0