Severe Weather outbreaks

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I wouldn't live in the Oklahoma city metro for anything when you get stuff like this. 1000031671.jpg
 
#FF0000 said:
It does happen from time to time (4/27/2011 is a great example) but they're still very, very rare, especially a High Risk.
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Yeah I remember the 2011 outbreak, that was crazy shit. I think it was an F4 that hit right near Auburn University. North GA also got pretty fucked.
 
#FF0000 said:
It does happen from time to time (4/27/2011 is a great example) but they're still very, very rare, especially a High Risk.
Click to expand...
They're infrequent enough that there's a Wikipedia page on them, listing each individual one.


In the past 30 years, in the Southeast, there's been:
  • 1994 Palm Sunday outbreak
  • 1994, November outbreak
  • 1996, March outbreak
  • 1997, March outbreak
  • 1998, February derecho event
  • 1998 Alabama outbreak
  • 1999, January Arkansas outbreak
  • 1999, May outbreak
  • 2001, October outbreak
  • 2002, November outbreak
  • 2002, December outbreak in Texas and Louisiana, if that counts as Southeast
  • 2005, April
  • 2007, the February/March outbreak
  • 2008, Super Tuesday outbreak
  • 2009, April outbreak
  • 2010, multiple outbreaks in April and May
  • 2011, two April super outbreaks
  • 2014, April outbreak
  • 2017, January outbreak in Georgia and Florida
  • 2017, outbreaks across the Southeast on April 2 and 5
  • 2021, outbreaks across the Southeast on March 17, 25, 31

It's not every year, but it's not that rare. Going by the numbers, every two out of three years, there's at least one high-risk day for somewhere in the Southeast that year.
 
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PDS Tornado Watch has been issued. Probabilities for tornadoes are nearly maxed out, which is very rare.
1715022760918.png

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Kansas
Western and Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely

SUMMARY...Explosive thunderstorm development is forecast this
afternoon along and east of a north to south oriented dryline.
Given a very favorable environment for severe thunderstorms, intense
supercells are expected to evolve. These storms are forecast to
move east across the Watch area this afternoon through the late
evening. The possibility exists for regenerative supercell
development over central Oklahoma this evening. Initially large to
giant hail is forecast with the initial supercell activity before
the tornado risk increases. Intense tornadoes are probable
especially as the atmosphere becomes very favorable for tornadoes
late this afternoon and continuing through the evening.
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It's starting with a bit of a bang; a tornado in Hoover, SD, and tennis ball sized hail in two different cells in Kansas.
 
Just heard that the cap is predicted to break within 1-3 hours over Oklahoma. I'm expecting a bad traffic situation for those unlucky enough to not get released early.
(4-7 pm CDT)
 
There's multiple reports of anticyclonic rotation in some of these cells already.
I wonder if there's gonna be another backwards EF5 field destroyer like last week?

Edit: Tornado Possible storm near Woodward Oklahoma. Possibly gonna pop into a TW soon if it actually develops.
Edit 2: Wall Cloud with possible rotation in this cell.
Edit 3: There's lowering on this per chasers on the ground. Not a tornado, yet.
Edit 4: Golfball sized hail, rotation increasing in this cell.

Fuckin two tornado warnings issued as I was typing and they're not even on that cell; one in Tennessee that's radar indicated and on the ground, and another radar indicated in Nebraska.
 
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The Woodward storm (now in Mooreland) is starting to form a hook and show some rotation on radar.
 
Yeah, I think the outbreak is just simmering and building up steam in OK right now.
The Smithville, TN tornado has a radar visible debris field and is confirmed on the ground by the NWS.
 
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