Severe Weather outbreaks

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1Tonka_Truck said:
Tornado
Number		DateTime
(CST)		Length
of Path
(miles)		Width
of Path
(yards)		F-ScaleKilledInjuredCountyLocation
3804/30/20242039-211251200EF100Tillman3 ENE - 5 ENE Hollister
Almost .75 mile wide EF1 tornado because there's no EF rating for knocking green wheat flat.
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Im surprised the path was that narrow. The photo made it seem way bigger
 
The EF scale's been so heavily fucked with by insurance adjustment influence that it's starting to remind me of the BMI index in terms of usefulness.
 
Abilene, TX currently under a PDS tornado warning

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Return of the Freaker said:
Abilene, TX currently under a PDS tornado warning
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Original tweet
Some severe damage in the area. Not sure what the building used to be.

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Storm might produce another tornado any minute now.

Looks like another widespread multi-day outbreak is on its way, from May 6th to at least May 9th.
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May 9th doesn't have an outlook yet due to model spread and uncertainty in specific location, but the discussion does mention the likelihood of severe weather on the 9th.
The CSU-MLP learning model is showing some very significant probabilities for severe weather on all of these days, particularly the 6th and the 8th.
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The 6th currently has the most confidence for severe weather at the moment, particularly tornadoes and damaging winds, with a 45% risk outlined by the CSU-MLP and a 30% risk outlined by the SPC (as seen above). There is enough confidence that the SPC's discussion specifically includes "...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON...", and an SPC forecaster has pointed out similarities between the broader synoptic patterns on the 6th of May and two other significant tornado outbreaks; those being 5/10/2010 and 4/26/1991.
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More specific details about storm mode (linear, discrete, open warm sector, etc.), more specific locations and more specific threats will become more apparent in the coming days.

Oh yeah, forgot to mention that several tornadoes touched down across a localized area yesterday in Texas. This is expected to continue today and tomorrow.
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Day 2 has a 10% hatched risk for tornadoes, and the outlook mentions the possibility of a couple of strong tornadoes.
The risk for very large hail and some damaging winds also exist for these two days.

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It's not on the ground yet.
But when it does touch down... pray.

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Large, rainwrapped tornado on Reed Timmer's stream. Possibly violent.
 
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pikachudidnothingwrong said:
Spring time in the US midwest and plains.. (tornado alley in the heart of tornado season) No other place like it on earth. Literally.

My favorite time of year. *loves weather and storms*

That one tornado on the first day (i think) was a beast. multi vort, mile plus width. Those kinds are like blenders with smaller blenders inside of them. The only saving grace is that because they tend to be large and unfocused, they usually only top out in the mid strength range. Not always though. (on the EF scale they could hit max much easier) That one wasn't even close to the biggest. The largest wedge tornado was the one that went through greensburg, KS in 2007.. It went directly over the center of the town and was estimated to be ~1.7 miles in width and traveled over 20 miles. It was an EF5 (F3) no less. Destroyed over 95% of the town. It was over parts of the town for literally minutes! All you could see from street level was piles of.. everything. The roads, lawns and foundations were covered by everything like snow or something.



The images from GB, KS in 07 are insane. (only posting a few, click on the attached files for the rest):

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17 years after this Tornado and if you were to go to Greensburg today, You can still see the scars and you can still tell a tornado has been here from abandoned foundations where houses were swept off to trees that look abnormal. Feels almost much like something out of the 1997 Harmony Korine film Gummo. I could imagine if the Ef4 tornado that touched Didsbury was off by like 1 mile north. It would've destroyed the whole town much like how Greensburg suffered. Didsbury luckily dodged that bullet with a minor scar.
 
Deadwaste said:
this is definitely because of climate change
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You joke, but on videos from the last couple weeks' outbreaks I keep seeing NPCs going on about "we have to make a change NOW!!! Mother Earth is giving us our LAST CHANCE!!!!"

I seriously wonder how many people think storms never happened before the industrial revolution and I fully expect to be suicidally disappointed.
 
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Forecast update! Oklahoma's fucked.
Recent model runs have been consistently showing a virtually perfect environment on Monday into the overnight hours. When I mean virtually perfect, I really do mean virtually perfect.
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The SPC has put out a Day 2 Moderate risk for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, with a larger Enhanced risk around that, driven by a 15% risk for significant tornadoes and a 45% risk for large hail. The SPC outlines several interesting things in the discussion as well that makes it extremely concerning.
Additionally, forecast hodographs are quite long, with little
mid-level weakness. Mean storm motion is around 50 kt from 21 to
00Z, with Bunkers right motion around 30 kt. This should be more
than sufficient for storms to remain discrete and maintain supercell
characteristics. This also contributes to a greater potential for
long-track tornadoes. The tornado threat will persist pass sunset
and into the evening, supported by the persistence of ample
low-level moisture/buoyancy and a strengthening low-level jet. Most
current guidance maximizes the STP at 8-10 around 03Z over
south-central OK.
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The environment is extremely favorable for discrete supercells across parts of Oklahoma into the overnight. How favorable, exactly? Well they mention a maximized STP (significant tornado parameter) of 8 to 10 throughout most parts of the area, which is INCREDIBLY high. However, some models show even higher numbers.
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Yes. A significant tornado parameter of SEVENTEEN. Some soundings have even shown STP values of up to 20 in some areas. Let's go into technical stuff to see why this is such a ridiculously favorable environment.
SRH values, or Storm Relative Helicity, are extremely high, with well over 400 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH and over 600 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH, which is an extreme amount. 150-200 m2/s2 of SRH is more than enough to produce strong tornadoes; the values seen here well exceed that requirement.
Alongside that, instability, measured in CAPE or Convective Potential Available Energy, is in excess of 3,000 to 4,000 j/kg. Again, only 1,000 j/kg of CAPE is more than enough to produce thunderstorms and tornadoes, and this much instability is extremely rare.
Combine the wind shear (SRH) and the extreme instability we have here, as well as smaller things such as subtle forcing to keep storms discrete, steep lapse rates (temperature falls with height) and extremely favorable moisture profiles, and you get one of the most volatile environments ever forecasted from models. Keep in mind this environment will exist overnight so most tornadoes will be at the dead of night.
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And earlier in the day too, the forecasted environment is extremely similar to the one that produced the May 3rd, 1999 Bridge Creek-Moore F5. I'm honestly expecting a High Risk to be issued tomorrow for this area.
Further north, into Kansas and parts of Nebraska, a favorable environment, albeit not as extreme, will exist for tornadoes, however the mode will be more linear, so the risk for strong and long-tracked tornadoes is not as significant.
We'll have to see how models trend and what does happen, since models have been pretty inconsistent recently, but the sheer amount of consistency this time between models is very worrying.
 
Tomorrow's going to be a High Risk. I'm just gonna say that.
The environment in the latest HRRR model run (00z) shows the strongest environment since probably 2011.
Absolutely fucking bonkers.
 
#FF0000 said:
Looks like another widespread multi-day outbreak is on its way, from May 6th to at least May 9th.
View attachment 5957764View attachment 5957765View attachment 5957767
May 9th doesn't have an outlook yet due to model spread and uncertainty in specific location, but the discussion does mention the likelihood of severe weather on the 9th.
The CSU-MLP learning model is showing some very significant probabilities for severe weather on all of these days, particularly the 6th and the 8th.
View attachment 5957773
The 6th currently has the most confidence for severe weather at the moment, particularly tornadoes and damaging winds, with a 45% risk outlined by the CSU-MLP and a 30% risk outlined by the SPC (as seen above). There is enough confidence that the SPC's discussion specifically includes "...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON...", and an SPC forecaster has pointed out similarities between the broader synoptic patterns on the 6th of May and two other significant tornado outbreaks; those being 5/10/2010 and 4/26/1991.
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More specific details about storm mode (linear, discrete, open warm sector, etc.), more specific locations and more specific threats will become more apparent in the coming days.
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Is this stuff supposed to be clear by next week after the 10th?
 
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PDS Tornado Watch will be issued soon.
SUMMARY...PDS Tornado Watch issuance will be needed ahead of this
portion of the dryline during the early afternoon. At least a few
long-track, discrete supercells are expected, becoming capable of
producing intense (EF3+) tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...16Z surface analysis placed the dryline from near
Garden City, KS to Lubbock, TX, with the Pacific cold front lagging
westward with southern extent in the southern High Plains. Airmass
continues to destabilize ahead of the dryline, with MLCIN becoming
weak into at least western OK and the TX Panhandle where
boundary-layer warming has been more prominent in cloud breaks.

The expectation is for initial dryline/Pacific front development to
occur in southwest KS and build south into the eastern TX
Panhandle/western OK vicinity by late afternoon. Ample low to
deep-layer shear will support several supercells with very large
hail, tornadoes, and severe gusts probable. The impinging of an
intense upper jet from NM into western OK over the next several
hours, along with strengthening of low-level flow this evening, will
yield an increasingly favorable kinematic environment for long-track
and intense supercells capable of significant tornadoes, especially
with southern extent in western/central OK.
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A Local Area Emergency (LAE) has been issued by NWS Norman. Either that or Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management, not sure.
I don't think I've ever seen one issued for severe weather ahead of time.
...PREPARE NOW for DANGEROUS storms TODAY and OVERNIGHT...

The following message is transmitted at the request of Oklahoma
Department of Emergency Management.

A severe weather outbreak is expected today and tonight across a
large portion of Oklahoma including many areas recently impacted
by severe storms and tornadoes.

While not everyone will see severe storms today any storms that
develop today and tonight will quickly become dangerous and
capable of producing destructive hail up to softball size
damaging wind gusts in excess of 80 mph and tornadoes some of
which may be strong.

Severe storms will be possible in Murray County as early as 3 PM
this afternoon with the risk of severe storms continuing through
the night and ending by 2 AM Tuesday.

Avoid driving to shelter during the storm. Plan NOW to be near
sturdy shelter BEFORE storms arrive. Have multiple ways to receive
severe weather warnings including ways that will wake you from
sleeping. Ensure Wireless Emergency Alerts are enabled on your
mobile device. Keep mobile devices and power banks charged.

If Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm warnings are issued for your
area seek shelter immediately in an interior room of the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Mobile homes and vehicles are NOT
sufficient shelter for tornadoes and destructive wind storms.
NEVER park under overpasses during severe weather.
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As bad as it can get in the southeast, I don't think I've ever heard of it being bad enough for a PDS Tornado Watch.

Looks like we're under slight severe risk this week.
 
It's pretty dire looking for Oklahoma tonight.
I honestly have a feeling that NW Arkansas may take a hit too if anything long lasting occurs.
 
Android raptor said:
As bad as it can get in the southeast, I don't think I've ever heard of it being bad enough for a PDS Tornado Watch.
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It does happen from time to time (4/27/2011 is a great example) but they're still very, very rare, especially a High Risk.

A_Skellington said:
It's pretty dire looking for Oklahoma tonight.
I honestly have a feeling that NW Arkansas may take a hit too if anything long lasting occurs.
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I think it's certainly possible. Models do show perhaps an isolated cell or two tracking into the area, and parameters are favorable for tornadoes there.
 
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