It's not looking promising for Atlus on the switch
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Infact Persona has usurped SMT to such an extent that there's rumors of needing to put mention of the Persona series on the box just for the game to sell now.
Don't call it a grave, this is the future you chose by not buying Raidou's games.
I think there's a lot of problems with this, considering Catherine itself has a horrible sales track record. Here's some stuff I nabbed from PC Gamer. It goes Opening Sales/Lifetime (Japan)
- [PS3] Catherine {2011-02-17} — 136,531 / 210,543
- [PS4] Catherine: Full Body {2019-02-14} — 53,606 / 69,804
- [360] Catherine {2011-02-17} — 17,768 / 26,222
- [PSV] Catherine: Full Body {2019-02-14} — 7,980 / 7,980
- [NSW] Catherine: Full Body for Nintendo Switch {2020-07-02} — 6,917 / NEW
- [PS3] Catherine [Best Selection] {2012-12-20} — 5,281 / 5,281
It's safe to say that more people will buy Catherine to eclipse the Vita(Poor thing) and probably be just shy of PS4 numbers. It's niche as it is, so it'll keep it's cult status.
I'd probably go with that at least overseas Atlus would be smart to just keep remaking and re-releasing their Persona games as they will do heavy numbers here and probably even more in Japan. Persona 4 on Steam became the number one selling JRPG on Steam. Mind you that's beating out Tales of, all the Neptunia/Atelier games, and ALL the Final Fantasy ones. That's pretty fucking nuts considering it's just P4 Golden coming out to PC.
Back to Paper Mario though, the game will sell better then Color Splash because of the install base, but hopefully it brings more attention to the pros of the Color Splash style, but also bring up the cons at a bigger audience. It's safe to say when people realize the problems with Origami King (Battles being skipped, no level progression, minigames out the ass, etc) they'll discuss that at length.
With Alphadream being gone now (RIP) Nintendo would still want to get some of that sweet Mario RPG action, and I'd assume in the best case, Paper Mario taking it's baby steps back to it's former glory with the story buddies in OK, will hopefully be a waking call to what people want.
TTYD HD would realistically be the smartest choice as the game itself STILL looks good sans the 3D models. If they gave it the same treatment current Paper Mario has, with like a redone soundtrack (Using the Color Splash big band I hope), it would be a shoe in for people.
I'd love for the original to be redone but I feel that it would be much harder to do, and also not have the same impact as TTYD. Which did have some replay options at the end for the Pit of 100 trials.