Trying to connect Big Mom's kids birth's with other events is probably a path to madness..like Mel Gibson's Conspiracy Theory madness.
big mom had sex with the hat/sword and was too fat to realize she was pregnant
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no luffy's going to return the straw hat to shanks's corpse and never get the chance to fight him
...like what?
killed by Big Toddler in a flashback, not allowed to die in battle, RIP
I mean, Oda did give the snowmen Luffy and Ussop made in the drum kingdom arc birthdays as well. And those were just one off gags.
Something completely unpredictable is going to happen that will throw a big enough wrench in the battle to allow the alliance to emerge victorious because there's no way they can take down Kaido, let alone both him and Mom. I feel the most likely scenario is the entrance of a 3rd party strong enough to tip the scales. The most obvious answer would be Shanks whose true motives are still completely unknown (he's not out there to become King and seems to spend most of his time acting as a mediator between other pirates and the Navy.). Plus we still don't know who he went to see the old men for. Aokiji is definitely a longshot but we've no idea what his goals are or where he is (since we didn't see him when Moria attacked Fullalead or whatever it's called). Or there's some other heavy hitter impossible to predict that's going to crash this party, who knows.
Part of me thinks this happening wouldn't be due to a group/combatant/whatever entering the fray (the most likely candidate for this IMO being the World Government or the Navy, the former to protect their interests and status quo, the latter because Akainu decided to shift his priorities for whatever reason).
He's not on their level yet though. It took everything he had to take down Katakuri and he was just Mom's henchman. We saw how close he is to Kaido's level when he went Gear 4 and got blown out in one shot. And he's already got the man's respect, it's what kept Kaido from killing him outright then and there and sending him to prison in the hopes of eventually recruiting him. He's gotten more powerful from the old man's training but it's gonna take a lot more than that to take on Kaido, especially in a straight one on one. We're currently seeing firsthand just how strong Oden is, being able to trade blows with a prime-age Whitebeard and all he managed was a single scar on Kaido's body.
Obviously Kidd is likely to join the alliance but he's Luffy's level strength-wise which is definitely not gonna be enough to tip the scales against one (let alone two) emperors.
So far the Navy has expressed desire to stay out of it (due to the timeframe with the Reverie) so it's hard to see them crashing the party. And given Wano's nature as a closed-off isolationist island I don't think it'd find itself involved in any major worldwide conflict unless it becomes a target for whatever reason. All I know for sure is something completely out of left field is gonna happen that shifts the entire battle on its head. It's just impossible to guess at what.
There is a difference between thinking he is strong enough to be an underling and considering someone an equal.
