EU Le Gilets Jaune protests thread - Do you hear the people sing? Singing the songs of angry men?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46233560

One protester has died and dozens were injured as almost a quarter of a million people took to the streets of France, angry at rising fuel prices.

The female protester who died was struck after a driver surrounded by demonstrators panicked and accelerated.

The "yellow vests", so-called after the high-visibility jackets they are required to carry in their cars, blocked motorways and roundabouts.

They accuse President Emmanuel Macron of abandoning "the little people".

Mr Macron has not so far commented on the protests, some of which have seen demonstrators call for him to resign.

But he admitted earlier in the week that he had not "really managed to reconcile the French people with their leaders".

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Nonetheless, he accused his political opponents of hijacking the movement in order to block his reform programme.

What has happened so far?
Some 244,000 people took part in protests across France, the interior ministry said in its latest update.

It said 106 people were injured during the day, five seriously, with 52 people arrested.

Most of the protests have been taking place without incident although several of the injuries came when drivers tried to force their way through protesters.

Image copyrightREUTERS
Image captionA driver forces a car through a group of protesters in Donges, western France
Chantal Mazet, 63, was killed in the south-eastern Savoy region when a driver who was taking her daughter to hospital panicked at being blocked by about 50 demonstrators, who were striking the roof of her vehicle, and drove into them.

The driver has been taken into police custody in a state of shock.

In Paris protesters approaching the Élysée Palace, the president's official residence, were repelled with tear gas.

Why are drivers on the warpath?
The price of diesel, the most commonly used fuel in French cars, has risen by around 23% over the past 12 months to an average of €1.51 (£1.32; $1.71) per litre, its highest point since the early 2000s, AFP news agency reports.

World oil prices did rise before falling back again but the Macron government raised its hydrocarbon tax this year by 7.6 cents per litre on diesel and 3.9 cents on petrol, as part of a campaign for cleaner cars and fuel.

Image copyrightEPA
Image captionTear gas was used to disperse protesters in Paris
The decision to impose a further increase of 6.5 cents on diesel and 2.9 cents on petrol on 1 January 2019 was seen as the final straw.

Speaking on Wednesday, the president blamed world oil prices for three-quarters of the price rise. He also said more tax on fossil fuels was needed to fund renewable energy investments.

How big is the movement?
It has broad support. Nearly three-quarters of respondents to a poll by the Elabe institute backed the Yellow Vests and 70% wanted the government to reverse the fuel tax hikes.

More than half of French people who voted for Mr Macron support the protests, Elabe's Vincent Thibault told AFP.

Image copyrightREUTERS
Image captionPolice attend as protesters block a motorway in Antibes
"The expectations and discontent over spending power are fairly broad, it's not just something that concerns rural France or the lower classes," he said.

The BBC's Lucy Williamson in Paris says the movement has grown via social media into a broad and public criticism of Mr Macron's economic policies.

Are opposition politicians involved?
They have certainly tried to tap into it. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who was defeated by Mr Macron in the second round of the presidential election, has been encouraging it on Twitter.

She said: "The government shouldn't be afraid of French people who come to express their revolt and do it in a peaceful fashion."

Image Copyright @MLP_officiel@MLP_OFFICIEL
Report

Laurent Wauquiez, leader of the centre-right Republicans, called on the Macron government to scrap the next planned increase in carbon tax on fossil fuels in January to offset rising vehicle fuel prices.

Mr Castaner has described Saturday's action as a "political protest with the Republicans behind it".

Olivier Faure, leader of the left-wing Socialist Party said the movement - which has no single leader and is not linked to any trade union - had been "born outside political parties".

"People want politicians to listen to them and respond. Their demand is to have purchasing power and financial justice," he said.

Image Copyright @faureolivier@FAUREOLIVIER
Report

Is there any room for compromise?
On Wednesday, the government announced action to help poor families pay their energy and transport bills.

Prime Minister Edouard Philippe announced that 5.6 million households would receive energy subsidies. Currently 3.6 million receive them.

A state scrappage bonus on polluting vehicles would also be doubled for France's poorest families, he said, and fuel tax credits would be brought in for people who depend on their cars for work.

Protesters have mocked the president relentlessly as "Micron" or "Macaron" (Macaroon) or simply Manu, the short form of Emmanuel, which he famously scolded a student for using.

Image Copyright @BBCWorld@BBCWORLD
Report

To be honest, I don't blame the driver at all.

 

[Keystone]

They had a general strike yesterday replete with lots of yellow vests. I'm not sure if it was a one day thing or if it's indefinite. You can check the twitter hash "#GreveGenerale5fevrier" for tweets on it.
This account's twitter thread has footage and stuff: https://twitter.com/ohboywhatashot/status/1092749544750764032
And this one news thing I found: http://archive.vn/NXYHz

 

[Bum Driller]

So many people think things like full blown revolutions or civil wars don't/can't happen any more in cushy 1st world nations. Then you get the ones who think we've "moved past such behaviors" while having the gall to label themselves intellectuals. So many are unaware of just how thin the veneer of civilization is and that no nation is immune from it.

I do agree with you on most parts, but the straight fact about revolutions and civil wars is that they don't happen when two conditions aren't met: First, people must be very desperate to actually rise up against their superiors, and they must have popular and capable leaders to organize the resistance. Unless you're really oppressed and hungry, average citizen, no matter how dissatisfied with his everyday life, isn't going to a real warfare against the government. Just look at Venezuela. Objectively speaking these people have it far more worse than people in France, but even they haven't yet really rebelled, just protested. People in France have full bellies and most of them have roof over their heads. They have public schools and healthcare. They have internet and television and millions of distractions of modern life. They have alcohol to numb their miserable existence. People with full bellies might get furious if you try to take away their extra shopping money, but that isn't enough to make them rebel.

Second, they need guns, which European citizens largely don't possess. Usually in the case of revolutions and civil wars, such resources are acquired from third parties, like foreign governments who see a political or economical opportunity of investment in supporting the revolution, in exchange of getting their man to the throne. Apart from, Russia I fail to see any global or regional powers who might be interested in arming any would-be revolutionaries, and I fail to see many revolutionary leaders of frenchmen willing to make deals with Russians.

The riots in France may escalate and make the country spiral forward to street-level anarchy, but I can hardly see that they could go beyond that. Unless something completely unexpected happens.

 

[Pope Negro Joe the XIIIth]

. Unless something completely unexpected happens.

I don't know, at the rate of escalation we've had I'm kind of expecting that "Something completely unexpected" event.

 

[RodgerDodger]

Macron knows that he has all the cards though.
Everyone with power in France either unironically supports Macron, or doesn't want anything to happen that might disrupt their precious EU. Even internationally, there's no countries that can really influence France that will condemn Macron if he goes too far, simply because he's too important to the health of the EU. If anything, other regional powers will help prop him up.

Keep an eye on Poland. They are an odd player in EU politics, but can easily become the point where the pebble becomes the avalanche. While not one of the prime economies they are strong enough. They have a population that largely loathes Brussels. And they have the largest and best standing Army in Europe at the moment. They have been watching Brexit with interest. If you start seeing Yellow vest protests there it would like presage an EU death spiral.

I do agree with you on most parts, but the straight fact about revolutions and civil wars is that they don't happen when two conditions aren't met: First, people must be very desperate to actually rise up against their superiors, and they must have popular and capable leaders to organize the resistance. Unless you're really oppressed and hungry, average citizen, no matter how dissatisfied with his everyday life, isn't going to a real warfare against the government. Just look at Venezuela. Objectively speaking these people have it far more worse than people in France, but even they haven't yet really rebelled, just protested. People in France have full bellies and most of them have roof over their heads. They have public schools and healthcare. They have internet and television and millions of distractions of modern life. They have alcohol to numb their miserable existence. People with full bellies might get furious if you try to take away their extra shopping money, but that isn't enough to make them rebel.

Second, they need guns, which European citizens largely don't possess. Usually in the case of revolutions and civil wars, such resources are acquired from third parties, like foreign governments who see a political or economical opportunity of investment in supporting the revolution, in exchange of getting their man to the throne. Apart from, Russia I fail to see any global or regional powers who might be interested in arming any would-be revolutionaries, and I fail to see many revolutionary leaders of frenchmen willing to make deals with Russians.

The riots in France may escalate and make the country spiral forward to street-level anarchy, but I can hardly see that they could go beyond that. Unless something completely unexpected happens.

Your core premise is based on a common myth or fallacy. Revolutions do not begin when the people have become desperate and have lost everything. People who have lost everything already are fully subjugated. He who has nothing more to lose, has nothing worth fighting for. When everyday is a struggle for food and survival nobody has time to overthrow the government. It’s why Dictatorships last so long.

Revolutions happen when the people feel they are starting to lose what they have. They occur when the people still have property and prosperity worth fighting for. The starving man has little to fight for. The Middle Class wage slave will gladly take up arms in defense of his Microwave Oven and WideScreen TV if his lifestyle becomes imperiled.

American foreign policy tradionalky tends to be moronic about this. Thinking that crippling economic sanctions will lead to regime change. While that may workin short term circumstances, such as Venezuela, long term all it does is entrench dictators. The best way to insure regime change, or failing that behavioral change in a dictatorship is to start shipping in consumer goods. The US approach to Cuba has been idiocy for generations. Same with Iran. Look to Vietnam and Malaysia to see it done right.

 

[QD 846]

Your core premise is based on a common myth or fallacy. Revolutions do not begin when the people have become desperate and have lost everything. People who have lost everything already are fully subjugated. He who has nothing more to lose, has nothing worth fighting for. When everyday is a struggle for food and survival nobody has time to overthrow the government. It’s why Dictatorships last so long.

i disagree completely. nobody is more willing to fight than the man who has nothing to lose. from the mexican drug cartels to black american street gangs, from the islamic militias of the middle east to afghan warlords - every violent outlaw organisation gets its manpower by recruiting these people: young men with nothing to lose.

i don't think we will see serious insurrection in france though. the french state is strong, its police force is loyal and effective, and the regime has international backing. revolutions only work when the established government is already weak and unstable - and no matter how much we meme about him, macron is still firmly in control and there are no meaningful signs of weakness so far.

 

[RodgerDodger]

i disagree completely. nobody is more willing to fight than the man who has nothing to lose. from the mexican drug cartels to black american street gangs, from the islamic militias of the middle east to afghan warlords - every violent outlaw organisation gets its manpower by recruiting these people: young men with nothing to lose.

i don't think we will see serious insurrection in france though. the french state is strong, its police force is loyal and effective, and the regime has international backing. revolutions only work when the established government is already weak and unstable - and no matter how much we meme about him, macron is still firmly in control and there are no meaningful signs of weakness so far.

That's thuggery for employment. Not the same as Revolution. Thuggery happens as a way out of poverty. Banditry, Piracy, Smuggling, Petty local Warlording etc. But actually taking up arms against your government to stage a revolution. You typically need to actually have something worth losing before that becomes a seemingly good idea.

 

[boulderblundermatt]

the thing i'd argu

i disagree completely. nobody is more willing to fight than the man who has nothing to lose. from the mexican drug cartels to black american street gangs, from the islamic militias of the middle east to afghan warlords - every violent outlaw organisation gets its manpower by recruiting these people: young men with nothing to lose.

i don't think we will see serious insurrection in france though. the french state is strong, its police force is loyal and effective, and the regime has international backing. revolutions only work when the established government is already weak and unstable - and no matter how much we meme about him, macron is still firmly in control and there are no meaningful signs of weakness so far.

That's thuggery for employment. Not the same as Revolution. Thuggery happens as a way out of poverty. Banditry, Piracy, Smuggling, Petty local Warlording etc. But actually taking up arms against your government to stage a revolution. You typically need to actually have something worth losing before that becomes a seemingly good idea.

You're talking around each other. However, you're both wrong and right, but you're missing a key element. the human element.

humans by their nature are unpredictable and different cultures react in different ways. one man's normalcy is another lunacy. as a result, we very well could be looking at a potential revolution. protests and thuggery as rodger puts it don't last this long under normal circumstances. It could be argued they aren't, but in that case the normal rules for predicting these things are thrown out the window.

in this case, I'd say its obvious the french are going to revolt. sure they might fail, but they do have a history of going to anarchy sooner than most societies would and usually because of dissatisfaction with the aristocracy. further, the government has for quite some time been literally ignoring the french people's concerns, and in fact insulting them by giving muslims entire blocks of property and having police all but abandon them.

 

[not william stenchever]

Revolutions happen when the people feel they are starting to lose what they have. They occur when the people still have property and prosperity worth fighting for. The starving man has little to fight for. The Middle Class wage slave will gladly take up arms in defense of his Microwave Oven and WideScreen TV if his lifestyle becomes imperiled.

Even Cracked had the wisdom to notice that every revolution in history happened in socities with rising levels of the average level of prosperity and a growing middle class. The peasants and serfs care for the mere survival of their children. the freemen care for the nature of the future their children will be born into.

 

[Ledian]

I do agree with you on most parts, but the straight fact about revolutions and civil wars is that they don't happen when two conditions aren't met: First, people must be very desperate to actually rise up against their superiors, and they must have popular and capable leaders to organize the resistance. Unless you're really oppressed and hungry, average citizen, no matter how dissatisfied with his everyday life, isn't going to a real warfare against the government. Just look at Venezuela. Objectively speaking these people have it far more worse than people in France, but even they haven't yet really rebelled, just protested. People in France have full bellies and most of them have roof over their heads. They have public schools and healthcare. They have internet and television and millions of distractions of modern life. They have alcohol to numb their miserable existence. People with full bellies might get furious if you try to take away their extra shopping money, but that isn't enough to make them rebel.

Second, they need guns, which European citizens largely don't possess. Usually in the case of revolutions and civil wars, such resources are acquired from third parties, like foreign governments who see a political or economical opportunity of investment in supporting the revolution, in exchange of getting their man to the throne. Apart from, Russia I fail to see any global or regional powers who might be interested in arming any would-be revolutionaries, and I fail to see many revolutionary leaders of frenchmen willing to make deals with Russians.

The riots in France may escalate and make the country spiral forward to street-level anarchy, but I can hardly see that they could go beyond that. Unless something completely unexpected happens.

This entire argument is met with the opposite in real life. We already have a few examples of non-violent, democratic revolutions having happened in recent times.
The collapse of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact is one example: the Singing Revolution, the Peaceful Revolution, and the Velvet Revolution were all revolutions that were peaceful and done moreover by nationalist tendencies than desperation. That and throwing out a terrible ideology into the trash for one that's far better.
Another one is the People Power Revolution in the Philippines, in case you thought it was only first and second world nations that could ever have peaceful revolutions. It almost did get violent but thankfully, Marcos told the troops who were foolish enough to even think about fighting the protests to stand down.

Of course, these happened because the support was wholly in the hands of the people en masse; any sane government would never try to fight it because they'd lose after the first shot. The GJ don't have the support like these revolutions just yet but if Macron keeps up the dumb games, he might actually push it to the point where a majority of the French citizenry pour out into the streets in protests. Any violence on the part of the authority would be a loss with no gain; they'd only be making the masses angrier and angrier and potentially set off a very violent revolution instead.

 

[Your Weird Fetish]

Of course the big one, the American Revolution, was mostly led by middle and upper class farmers and tradesmen.

 

[Stoneheart]

So france just recalled their ambassador to italy.

 

[Corbin Dallas Multipass]

So france just recalled their ambassador to italy.

What would that indicate?

 

[TowinKarz]

Italy isn't all too keen on the EU and sick to death of refugees from Africa washing up on the beaches and being told by Brussels they have to accept them because "finders keepers" ....


hummmmm......

 

[Stoneheart]

What would that indicate?

a Realy Bad week for the EU.
Merkels Party is Outraged about the EU because they said no to a major merger that would have benefited bavaria.
Macron has say something bad about the EU because of that(the other company was french), but well thats not good for him since he is Mr. EU and because that merger would have costed french jobs and loss of controll over one of the small number of working french heavy industrie companys(or atleast the railway part of it).

 

[KingCoelacanth]

What would that indicate?

Salvini (the big scary italian boogeyman you may of heard of in the media) met with yellow jacket protesters recently, which the French government is calling an obstruction to their national sovereignty. This is most likely a message telling them to back off.

Edit: On top of this, for the past few months, Italy has been claiming that the migrant crisis is part of French exploitation of their former colonies, and Italy has used this accusation to justify their anti-migrant practices of recent. France, of course, has not been happy with these accusations nor Italy's stance towards illegal migration

 

[Bum Driller]

This entire argument is met with the opposite in real life. We already have a few examples of non-violent, democratic revolutions having happened in recent times.
The collapse of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact is one example: the Singing Revolution, the Peaceful Revolution, and the Velvet Revolution were all revolutions that were peaceful and done moreover by nationalist tendencies than desperation. That and throwing out a terrible ideology into the trash for one that's far better.
Another one is the People Power Revolution in the Philippines, in case you thought it was only first and second world nations that could ever have peaceful revolutions. It almost did get violent but thankfully, Marcos told the troops who were foolish enough to even think about fighting the protests to stand down.

Of course, these happened because the support was wholly in the hands of the people en masse; any sane government would never try to fight it because they'd lose after the first shot. The GJ don't have the support like these revolutions just yet but if Macron keeps up the dumb games, he might actually push it to the point where a majority of the French citizenry pour out into the streets in protests. Any violence on the part of the authority would be a loss with no gain; they'd only be making the masses angrier and angrier and potentially set off a very violent revolution instead.

I agree with you on this. I would just point out that the original post I was replying to referred rather to violent revolutions, or at least I interepreted it in such way.

 

[Stoneheart]

Salvini (the big scary italian boogeyman you may of heard of in the media) met with yellow jacket protesters recently, which the French government is calling an obstruction to their national sovereignty. This is most likely a message telling them to back off.

Edit: On top of this, for the past few months, Italy has been claiming that the migrant crisis is part of French exploitation of their former colonies, and Italy has used this accusation to justify their anti-migrant practices of recent. France, of course, has not been happy with these accusations nor Italy's stance towards illegal migration

Well to be fair, libya is one of the main problems, and they were an italian colonie...

 

[CWCissey]

Well to be fair, libya is one of the main problems, and they were an italian colonie...

Then there's Ethiopia...

 

[Your Weird Fetish]

What would that indicate?

Macron knows that the Eternal Pasta is behind all of Europe's woes.

 

[Stoneheart]

also the EU is now again trying to sabotage the german/russian gas pipeline project in the baltic sea, this time france apparently leads the effort to stop the project (usually it's mostly poland and america being butthurt about it)

lots of trouble brewing


yeah, but for decades libya was stable and secure under gaddhafi. then one day sarkozy decided to blow him up and turn the country into a warzone. this absolutely is on france.

Im pretty sure Merkel is more than pissed atm. The no to the Siemens merger and the no to north stream would cost alot of money, and all involved german companys are in very high standing with her.
Its hart to sell pro EU politics in may when that mean higher heating bills and less jobs for germans.