I do agree that she’s facing an uphill battle against a long-term incumbent. However, I’m still hesitant to write her off as having no shot of winning. For one, there are literally no polls for this race (
except for one (no archive possible), which I highly doubt is a true sample of the voter base), so Dan can’t know if he’s winning or not, unless he has some super secret polling only he knows about.
In addition, it seems like Loomer has actually got the word out about her campaign, because as mentioned earlier she has lots of signs out in her district according to both
Twitter and
Reddit, seems like they started cropping up around June. People in the district definitely know about her by this point. For funsies I did the exact same search but for Brianna Wu, nothing. Not one person (supporter or detractor) mentioned her signs, so her primary challenge was pretty much dead on arrival as she obviously couldn’t get the word out.
Lauren Boebert won her 2020 primary against a long-term incumbent that Trump endorsed, and while she might not be as crazy as Loomer, it shows that incumbents aren’t necessarily invincible. Combining the lack of outward support for Webster and the visible outward support for Loomer in the district, I still think she has a chance.