Yeah, I think they are fucked. It would take a serious improvement combined with RB/Fer doing a flip and fucking up completely. And also some of the chasing teams will no doubt improve so Merc has to improve, drastically, to even get back in the game. As I mentioned previously, they were fortunate the way the first races played out that they happened to be the team to benefit the most. Realistically, they should be on par with Haas and AR for points with RB and Fer even farther ahead. Will that luck be their saviour if they get their act together? If they don't score well this weekend and RB/Fer do, I am going to be close to 90% saying they are out of the running for the titles. Also, their engine is no longer the dominant force it was. I am pretty sure Fer said they expect a 10-20bhp gain this weekend with their new updates.
I just can't see Merc improving to a degree that will put them ahead of RB/Fer without a couple of miracles happening. I mean they are way off currently, not just a little. It is nice to see, and with luck, it will carry over for the next 3 seasons until FIA FAAFO again with the new changes in 2026.
A number of teams will be bringing upgrades this weekend too, so you would assume at least one team will improve. At this point, only Williams and AM are teams that you would consider having no chance of competing with Merc or anyone else. The other 5 midfield teams all have looked close/better than Merc at times. If some get their act together and gain a few tenths, then they have potential of usurping Merc given they are basically standing still unless they somehow unlock the potential of the car, if there even is any potential to unlock?
They really need to find well over a half second, if not close to a second to get in the mix. I don't care if you are Merc, or any other team, that is a daunting task, especially moreso now with the cap, limited development benefits due to the ratioed wind-tunnel time, engines locked in for most part etc. There are so many things working against them I just can't see how they can suddenly be getting poles and easy wins. It would take as I said a miracle, or some fuckery/cheating because there doesn't seem to be any other way in my view. As always, we shall see, but after Spain is when I will fully write them off if the current trend continues.
Also, the sprint race. I am so confused, also did not really try and find an answer to be honest, but how the fuck is that working again? If I understand correctly, Qualifying on Friday sets the grid for the sprint. And the winner of qualifying is awarded pole position. Then we have Sprint on Sat and the results of that race form the grid. Is that right? So, does that mean fastest in Fri Q may not start on pole if he doesn't win Sprint? Or because he got pole on Friday, regardless of Sprint finishing order, he gets to start on pole for Sunday? Somehow I doubt the latter is the case. They really fucked up on that. No more "Hey I got pole in Qualifying, excited to start at front of grid for the GP!" comments. It appears now, for sprint weekends the guy who is awarded pole is technically not awarded pole. He was just fastest in the session. "Pole", I think they need to call it "Sprint Pole" and the guy who wins the Sprint is awarded "Pole". They should just call the fucking Sprint "Mini-GP" or "Pre-GP" or something. LOL I guess it all depends how one defines "Pole" is it fastest in Qualifying, or is the person who started P1 in the GP?
If Charles wins both he will have over 100 points. After 4 races! LOLOL At that clip, he could have over 500 points end of year. That would have to be highest total ever. While I hated the nearly decade of Merc dominance, as I said, I would love to see Charles just annihilate everyone and be like a one man Senna/Prost in 1988. I read a blurb that Helmut Marko said Max drives too aggressive for the new cars. Whether true or not, if these cars do require him to alter the way he drives and he isn't as fast as a result, that has huge potential to help Charles cruise to the title even more than he is doing at the moment.
This season has been quite enjoyable so far and still lots of variables and unknowns lie ahead. I'm digging it myself.