US First Presidental Debate - Boomerdome 2020

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WELCOME TO THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES!!!
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Time: Starts at 6:10-6:30pm to 7:40-8pm PST / 8:10-8:30pm to 9:40-10pm CST / 9:10-9:30pm-10:40-11pm EST

Where to watch:

Location: Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland

Moderator: Chris Wallace, anchor of “Fox News Sunday”


Competitors:

Former Vice President Joe Biden
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President Donald Trump
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Details: The debate will be 90 minutes long and have no commercial breaks. There will be no opening statements, and instead Wallace will dive right in with the first question to Trump. It will be divided into six 15-minute segments that Wallace has chosen. They are:
1) The Trump and Biden records;
2) The Supreme Court;
3) Covid-19;
4) the economy;
5) race and violence in cities;
6) the integrity of the election.

After the debates a poll will be posted on who you think won this first debate. Have lots of fun, keep the commentary fresh as I'm sure we've all heard many of the same lines for months and enjoy the beginning of the end of this presidential election cycle. Just as a reminder, on October 7th there will be a Vice Presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City, Utah.
You can view Joe Biden's megathread here, and Donald Trump's megathread here

Previous Democratic debates-
First Democratic debate (two nights)
Second Democratic debate
Third Democratic debate
Fourth Democratic debate
Fifth Democratic debate
Sixth Democratic debate
Seventh Democratic debate
Eighth Democratic debate
Ninth Democratic debate
Tenth Democratic debate
Eleventh Democratic Debate

Democratic primary results-
Super Tuesday
Mini-super Tuesday

Have fun!
 
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boroque said:
POPULAR VOTE MARGIN SCENARIOS and BIDEN’S CHANCES
OF WINNING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Biden +6 to Biden +7 >99%
Biden +5 to Biden +6 98
Biden +4 to Biden +5 93
Biden +3 to Biden +4 77
Biden +2 to Biden +3 54
Biden +1 to Biden +2 29
TIE to Biden +1 11
Trump +1 to TIE 3
Trump +2 to Trump +1 <1
(This is from 538)

Biden is up by 6/7 points nationally right now. Unless Trump can at least get that down to 5 points he is not mathematically competitive--in other words, Trump cannot feasibly win the electoral college.
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Sulla said:
>538
since we established we can just cite any moron.

oh look, trump has a 90% chance of winning!
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The problem with polls are they are not scientifically biased as many polls show that the majority or majority minority of respondents were democrats. And there are social pressure factors such as not admitting to anyone that someone is going for Trump and trolls. Also I am sure many people don't bother to answer the phone as well as many of these polls are phone calls. The people are not randomly chosen and people push narratives with one poll or another poll that looks good to them and run with it.

There is a possibility we could see a brexit wave situation where brexit leads to Trump winning on our side and now the tories got a supermajority in 2019 election there so maybe that wave comes here.
 
BIG DADDY said:
Half the libcows here have already posted about how much a piece of shit Biden is for not wanting to defund the police. There is always enough hate for both heretic and infidel.
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Selection bias and the fact that libcows don't vote, they just sometimes say they vote.

Sulla said:
>538
since we established we can just cite any moron.

oh look, trump has a 90% chance of winning!
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1. The USA has 50 states which can all be polled individually (state polls), and the nation itself can be polled en masse (national polls).

2. The electoral college is essentially a composite state poll with each state weighted by representation and a hard cap on total allotment.

3. Because of this, the geographic population dispersion that the GOP currently maintains allows the GOP a certain degree of lattidute in losing the national popular vote while still winning the (population weighted) popular vote (i.e. the electroal college), but this advantage is obviously not absolute. If Candidate 1 (D) is polling at 90% nationally, it doesn't matter how advantageous the electoral college is to Candidate 2 (R), he or she will lose because they don't have enough votes to utilize their advantage.

4. But what are the chances that Biden would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college? It depends on how much he wins the popular vote by! If he wins by 2-3 points, Trump still has a 54% probability of winning. If Biden wins by 3-4 points, Trump still has a 77% chance of winning. Again, this isn't my opinion or a conspiracy theory or an "educated guess," it's math. If Biden is winning by 6-7 points (as he currently is at this moment), Trump has <1% chance. There just wouldn't be enough votes left.

FunPosting101 said:
>Caring about or taking seriously biased polls from 538 of all places.
You do know that the rest of us remember 2016, right? Nate Bronze isn't the oracle you think he is.
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You say this like you're making a point. 538 gave Trump a 20% chance of winning in 2016. IT's not Nate Silver's fault that people are REALLY bad at interpreting probability. If you want an actual example of being a hack, the NYT blog had Clinton's chances at 99% on election night, which was completely delusional. 20% chances (4:1 against) aren't promising but they're certainly not damning, as Trump himself proved.
 
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boroque said:
Selection bias and the fact that libcows don't vote, they just sometimes say they vote.



Let me explain the chart I posted so that you can see how Math(tm) is differen't from some random professor's "feelings" and how your link is completely irrelevant.

1. The USA has 50 states which can all be polled individually (state polls), and the nation itself can be polled en masse (national polls).

2. The electoral college is essentially a composite state poll with each state weighted by representation and a hard cap on total allotment.

3. Because of this, the geographic population dispersion that the GOP currently maintains allows the GOP a certain degree of lattidute in losing the national popular vote while still winning the (population weighted) popular vote (i.e. the electroal college), but this advantage is obviously not absolute. If Candidate 1 (D) is polling at 90% nationally, it doesn't matter how advantageous the electoral college is to Candidate 2 (R), he or she will lose because they don't have enough votes to utilize their advantage.

4. But what are the chances that Biden would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college? It depends on how much he wins the popular vote by! If he wins by 2-3 points, Trump still has a 54% probability of winning. If Biden wins by 3-4 points, Trump still has a 77% chance of winning. Again, this isn't my opinion or a conspiracy theory or an "educated guess," it's math. If Biden is winning by 6-7 points (as he currently is at this moment), Trump has <1% chance. There just wouldn't be enough votes left.
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assuming the polls are an accurate representation of the country

which - again - look at 2016
 
cantankerous jackalope said:
assuming the polls are an accurate representation of the country

which - again - look at 2016
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The national polls in 2016 showed Clinton slightly ahead, and hey what do you know she was slightly ahead... in the national vote. The sin of 2016 was seemingly everyone forgetting about the electoral college.

wanted to add another sin of 2016 was the poor quality and lack of good state polls. The state polls that were conducted in 2016 were often subpar and honestly, most outfits either didn't run them or didn't take them seriously. In at least one respect, this is NOT the case in 2020, were we have a HUGE amount of state polling going on, which actually makes us more confident in their validity, but good luck selling that!

Also, why does the "inaccurate" 2016 polling matter but the actually pretty accurate polling in 2018 doesn't?
 
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cantankerous jackalope said:
assuming the polls are an accurate representation of the country

which - again - look at 2016
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This is not even an exclusive thing that happened in 2016

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Polls are not always an accurate indicator especially with politics having so many curve balls.

The last few elections with some exceptions have a reason that the polls were accurate which boiled down to extremely weak candidates and the opponent being much more charismatic.

The elections that have more fucky polls are with very divisive figures in politics whose opponents are as equally strong or the president is seemingly unpopular.
 
Exterminate Leftists said:
Again, the fact that Biden interrupted Trump three times in a row in the beginning of the debate needs to be hammered down the throats of every shitbag who says that the debate was a mess or a joke. There were rules and Biden broke them in the second question of the night; why should the President of the United States give the time of day to someone who has so little respect for debate? I want to say fuck Democrats, but really, fuck the people that actively make excuses or try to outright lie about this shit happening. It's on video, I have eyes. Suck my fucking dick.

update with the video so @Hollywood Hulk Hogan can continue to tongue my anus:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=w3KxBME7DpM:627
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Biden gets what he fucking deserves for being such a condescending shithead in 2012. Doesn't matter that Paul Ryan is a smug bastard, but you don't get to cry about how the other guy is a big bad meanie interrupting you if you literally pulled the same stunt 8 years ago.
 
soy_king said:
Biden gets what he fucking deserves for being such a condescending shithead in 2012. Doesn't matter that Paul Ryan is a smug bastard, but you don't get to cry about how the other guy is a big bad meanie interrupting you if you literally pulled the same stunt 8 years ago.
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Honestly 2012 Biden could've beaten Trump since Biden back in 2012 actually had a lot of strength and wasn't a quivering mess.
 
MrJokerRager said:
There is a possibility we could see a brexit wave situation where brexit leads to Trump winning on our side and now the tories got a supermajority in 2019 election there so maybe that wave comes here.
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That depends if the general American gives a fat shit about the UK in general. How Brexit will be played out after this year depends on many factors that are still left in the air and I don't have any confidence it's going to go well. When the UK Government are putting the likes of an Internal Border around Kent and England without any input from the people in Kent, The Internal Market Bill affecting the Withdrawl Agreement over Northern Ireland and the Devolved Parliaments over issues that were exclusive to them and just in generally expecting things to go in their favour with trade deals because they have the 'need us more' mentality, I can't see it working from any sort of view other than luck.

Of course the Presidential Election is before 2021 so the effects of Brexit haven't hit it's fullest yet but I'll still say that if the general American doesn't give a shit about what happens to the UK, I don't think it's going to matter much. Also possible that if Joe Biden does win somehow, that may also light a fire under the UK Government due to the Democrats wanting to keep the GFA and even going as far to deny a trade deal with the UK if they break it (Which is honestly something I'd like to see for the hell of it) but that depends if the Democrats keep their word on that matter and I have little knowledge though of the proceedings of who gets to decided that between the Senate and POTUS.

I will say though from my perspective of the whole thing. Brits like to make fun of Americans for being the most "stupidest" in the Western World for many years on end but they also don't notice from other countries perspective that they are the most Arrogant of the Western World, possibly taking the title of stupidest too if Brexit becomes the shitshow it was predicted to be.
 
I still don't understand why Biden brought up Brazil. That had to be the most dada moment of the whole debate and no one is talking about it. Aside from it being left field, why do we need to hear what the problems are? We know what they are. He needed to tell his solutions.
 
behavioral swamp thang said:
I still don't understand why Biden brought up Brazil. That had to be the most dada moment of the whole debate and no one is talking about it. Aside from it being left field, why do we need to hear what the problems are? We know what they are. He needed to tell his solutions.
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Yea I have no idea why no one was talking about him bringing up Brazil for some reason. I don't think the Moderator or Trump expected it and just kind of ignored for what it was, rambling from someone with no clue where he's at in his head.
 
behavioral swamp thang said:
I still don't understand why Biden brought up Brazil. That had to be the most dada moment of the whole debate and no one is talking about it. Aside from it being left field, why do we need to hear what the problems are? We know what they are. He needed to tell his solutions.
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Brazil is one of those nations the left love to bash these days as they too elected a populist right wing president.
In the mind of leftists the current axis of evil consists of Trump's America, Bolsonaro's Brazil, and Modi's India
 
Feline Supremacist said:
Still voting Trump
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Fucking 'A! Tell you all what...do the Amazon poll. That's where people actually have to put their money where their mouths are. Just did a quick look. Put "Trump merchandise 2020" in the search bar. Look at the number of reviews/ratings for the merchandise on the front page of results. Then put "Biden merchandise 2020" in the search bar. Look at the number of reviews/ratings for the merchandise on the front page of results. Not. Even. Close. At. All. Joe and Da Hoe LOSE.
 
JosephStalin said:
Fucking 'A! Tell you all what...do the Amazon poll. That's where people actually have to put their money where their mouths are. Just did a quick look. Put "Trump merchandise 2020" in the search bar. Look at the number of reviews/ratings for the merchandise on the front page of results. Then put "Biden merchandise 2020" in the search bar. Look at the number of reviews/ratings for the merchandise on the front page of results. Not. Even. Close. At. All. Joe and Da Hoe LOSE.
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I want Trump president. Fuck his merchandise. And I’m sure a libtard like HollywoodHulkHogan feels the same way about Biden.
 
Übertroon said:
Brazil is one of those nations the left love to bash these days as they too elected a populist right wing president.
In the mind of leftists the current axis of evil consists of Trump's America, Bolsonaro's Brazil, and Modi's India
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Wait, they think the poos and hues are nazis? All those POCs are fascists? lmao
 
Ly Erg said:
That depends if the general American gives a fat shit about the UK in general. How Brexit will be played out after this year depends on many factors that are still left in the air and I don't have any confidence it's going to go well. When the UK Government are putting the likes of an Internal Border around Kent and England without any input from the people in Kent, The Internal Market Bill affecting the Withdrawl Agreement over Northern Ireland and the Devolved Parliaments over issues that were exclusive to them and just in generally expecting things to go in their favour with trade deals because they have the 'need us more' mentality, I can't see it working from any sort of view other than luck.

Of course the Presidential Election is before 2021 so the effects of Brexit haven't hit it's fullest yet but I'll still say that if the general American doesn't give a shit about what happens to the UK, I don't think it's going to matter much. Also possible that if Joe Biden does win somehow, that may also light a fire under the UK Government due to the Democrats wanting to keep the GFA and even going as far to deny a trade deal with the UK if they break it (Which is honestly something I'd like to see for the hell of it) but that depends if the Democrats keep their word on that matter and I have little knowledge though of the proceedings of who gets to decided that between the Senate and POTUS.

I will say though from my perspective of the whole thing. Brits like to make fun of Americans for being the most "stupidest" in the Western World for many years on end but they also don't notice from other countries perspective that they are the most Arrogant of the Western World, possibly taking the title of stupidest too if Brexit becomes the shitshow it was predicted to be.
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I thought the Brits overtook America in the stupidest race a long time ago. Now in my head all British men look like Matt Lucas and all the women look like Matt Lucas in a wig. And the men say nothing but "are you havin a laugh" and the women say nothing but "I'm not bothered".
 
I got reminded now that when the candidates walked in, Trump walked in fast and business like compared to Joe. And left the same way, embraced Melania and left, he was really pissed off at the whole event. Was just there to tear Biden a new asshole and misfired a lot when looked in hindsight 2020.

Also surprised how quiet the audience was, looks like Wallace is good at crowd control.
 
Truthboi said:
This is not even an exclusive thing that happened in 2016

View attachment 1633482

Polls are not always an accurate indicator especially with politics having so many curve balls.

The last few elections with some exceptions have a reason that the polls were accurate which boiled down to extremely weak candidates and the opponent being much more charismatic.

The elections that have more fucky polls are with very divisive figures in politics whose opponents are as equally strong or the president is seemingly unpopular.
Click to expand...

Math may not lie but people do, basically?

I haven't done the "answer the pollsters bullshitting them about your support" thing because I hate telemarketing campaigns of any variety but I know some folks who have.
 
Übertroon said:
Brazil is one of those nations the left love to bash these days as they too elected a populist right wing president.
In the mind of leftists the current axis of evil consists of Trump's America, Bolsonaro's Brazil, and Modi's India
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Don't forget BoJo's Britain, where the former Shadow Chancellor until December 2019 outright called him a "proto fascist" recently.

From a man who fucking outright would carry a copy of Mao's Little Red Book with him at all times inside Parliament and still does so to this day.
 
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