US First Presidental Debate - Boomerdome 2020

Getting tard comed · Oct 1, 2020

boroque said:
The national polls in 2016 showed Clinton slightly ahead, and hey what do you know she was slightly ahead... in the national vote. The sin of 2016 was seemingly everyone forgetting about the electoral college.

wanted to add another sin of 2016 was the poor quality and lack of good state polls. The state polls that were conducted in 2016 were often subpar and honestly, most outfits either didn't run them or didn't take them seriously. In at least one respect, this is NOT the case in 2020, were we have a HUGE amount of state polling going on, which actually makes us more confident in their validity, but good luck selling that!

Also, why does the "inaccurate" 2016 polling matter but the actually pretty accurate polling in 2018 doesn't?

Polling is bullshit for a variety of reasons. Some are malice, some are incompetence, some are purely mistakes. Why are you going with a poll that has gotten all of the republican victories incorrect vs a poll that has predicted the election correctly 6/7 the last 7 elections or something like that?

The whole *supposed* point of a poll is to be predictive and 538s polls literally don't do that. It's silly to keep using them particularly when they haven't corrected or acknowledged the issues in their methodology that led them to be so incorrect all the times they have been before.

And that's only if for some odd reason you still see polls as gauging public opinion as opposed to attempts to shape it. And if you believe that at this point let me show you a bridge in Brooklyn I have to sell you.

HumanHive said:
I want Trump president. Fuck his merchandise. And I’m sure a libtard like HollywoodHulkHogan feels the same way about Biden.

The merchandise gauges enthusiasm. The side with the most enthusiasm has usually won. And by usually we are talking 90%+ rate. In 2016 Trump had a single digit lead in enthusiasm over Clinton. It's a double digit lead this year.

ChikN10der · Oct 1, 2020

RandomTwitterGuy said:
I am not American i don't watch American media that is not entertainment and not industry news.
Maybe it is because i grew up in a country where respect, strength and principle is a virtue, but hey have Politicians shit and act like Children it will make the country's better right.

You got to love the idea that some how Republicans and super nice and sweet and not retarded dumb fucks like there counter parts the Democrats.

I forgot My team good, your team bad. Fucking Children both of you.

Then why are you commenting on the american debate between candidates for president of the us, hosted on american television channel fox?
You aren't the first concern troll, I'm sorry to break it to you.

ChikN10der · Oct 1, 2020

Hollywood Hulk Hogan said:
Lol that's not true at all. The DNC already agreed to the second debate. Infowars is a terrible source, even by A&N standards. You might as well link to Weekly World News

So you're contending many Dems aren't saying the rest of the debates should be called off?
So if someone posted several quotes of prominent Dems saying just that, you'd be wrong, correc

Echo_Ender · Oct 1, 2020

There's apparently a big thing right now about Biden refusing drug testing and refusing to be checked for an earpiece before the debate.

The usual suspects are currently spamming stories about Biden "Owning" Trump by refusing those and "There was no wire on biden!" when they'd obviously use a tiny, wireless device that wouldn't show up on TV.

Meanwhile he was pretty clearly hopped up on some kinda stimulants and seemed to be having responses fed to him.

Baroque · Oct 1, 2020

O

Getting tard comed said:
Polling is bullshit for a variety of reasons. Some are malice, some are incompetence, some are purely mistakes. Why are you going with a poll that has gotten all of the republican victories incorrect vs a poll that has predicted the election correctly 6/7 the last 7 elections or something like that?

The whole *supposed* point of a poll is to be predictive and 538s polls literally don't do that. It's silly to keep using them particularly when they haven't corrected or acknowledged the issues in their methodology that led them to be so incorrect all the times they have been before.

And that's only if for some odd reason you still see polls as gauging public opinion as opposed to attempts to shape it. And if you believe that at this point let me show you a bridge in Brooklyn I have to sell you.

The merchandise gauges enthusiasm. The side with the most enthusiasm has usually won. And by usually we are talking 90%+ rate. In 2016 Trump had a single digit lead in enthusiasm over Clinton. It's a double digit lead this year.

Polls are not supposed to be predictive, they are just an estimate of a population at a specific point in time. The 538 forecast (indeed any forecast) it's the predictive measure. Basically, polls are capturing 't0' and forecasts want to predict 't1' ( the next period).

Also, 538 is not a polling outfit, and does not (generally, outside of special circumstances) conduct their own polls, they use an integrated process that combines many other polls (and other variables). Note that this is considerably more involved then just taking an arithmetic average, but if that's all you have it's not a terrible metric.

Your methodology point is also bizarre since polling outfits have, in fact, done considerable work since 2016, which is i partly why the 2018 polls were accurate.

It's funny how you talk about the assumed malice and incompetence of pollsters, but you are wrong on even the basic fundamentals of polling. Personally, I am a polling autist and I care less about who is 'winning' in any particular pool than about the math and efficacy of polling. Regardless of who you want to win, Trump MUST get biden to <5 point margin if he wants any chance to be competitive. But maybe the polls are all wrong and I'm dumb!

ChikN10der · Oct 1, 2020

boroque said:
O

Polls are not supposed to be predictive, they are just an estimate of a population at a specific point in time. The 538 forecast (indeed any forecast) it's the predictive measure. Basically, polls are capturing 't0' and forecasts want to predict 't1' ( the next period).

Also, 538 is not a polling outfit, and does not (generally, outside of special circumstances) conduct their own polls, they use an integrated process that combines many other polls (and other variables). Note that this is considerably more involved then just taking an arithmetic average, but if that's all you have it's not a terrible metric.

Your methodology point is also bizarre since polling outfits have, in fact, done considerable work since 2016, which is i partly why the 2018 polls were accurate.

It's funny how you talk about the assumed malice and incompetence of pollsters, but you are wrong on even the basic fundamentals of polling. Personally, I am a polling autist and I care less about who is 'winning' in any particular pool than about the math and efficacy of polling. Regardless of who you want to win, Trump MUST get biden to <5 point margin if he wants any chance to be competitive. But maybe the polls are all wrong and I'm dumb!

If you're a polling autist you'd know that they haven't changed anything from the 2016 polls, there's been significant discussion of just that between actual poll autists.
The polls are to drive opinion, not report it. It's not even a secret.

Cyclonus · Oct 1, 2020

America's greatest export has always been its entertainment, so I would like to thank you of behalf of the rest of the world for this thoroughly amusing spectacle of two elderly men throwing their own faeces at each other. It's probably not good for the future of human society, but goddamn is it entertaining.

:popcorn:

Getting tard comed · Oct 1, 2020

boroque said:
O

Polls are not supposed to be predictive, they are just an estimate of a population at a specific point in time. The 538 forecast (indeed any forecast) it's the predictive measure. Basically, polls are capturing 't0' and forecasts want to predict 't1' ( the next period).

Also, 538 is not a polling outfit, and does not (generally, outside of special circumstances) conduct their own polls, they use an integrated process that combines many other polls (and other variables). Note that this is considerably more involved then just taking an arithmetic average, but if that's all you have it's not a terrible metric.

Your methodology point is also bizarre since polling outfits have, in fact, done considerable work since 2016, which is i partly why the 2018 polls were accurate.

It's funny how you talk about the assumed malice and incompetence of pollsters, but you are wrong on even the basic fundamentals of polling. Personally, I am a polling autist and I care less about who is 'winning' in any particular pool than about the math and efficacy of polling. Regardless of who you want to win, Trump MUST get biden to <5 point margin if he wants any chance to be competitive. But maybe the polls are all wrong and I'm dumb!

You need to sharpen your autism then. Almost everything you've written here is contradicted by what you said yourself or cursory Google-fu.

1) Polls may have at one point been used to gauge public opinion. They are not in practice used for that. Tbf, if you are autistic this is an easy mistake for you to make.

2) 538 being an aggregate of other polls doesnt change what I've said no matter their methodology. Garbage in, garbage out.

3) "Polls aren't predictive" also "why the 2018 polls were accurate" Accurate to what I ask if they arent predictive? To the country's mood? If your autism allows you to make a contradiction statement like this one you should understand what I mean when I say polls arent predictive.

4) Agree with your last statement 100%!

Edit: A hard number for you to consider. Right now most polling done adds a Dem voter advantage when practically everywhere in the country Republicans have increased registration numbers over Dems. I believe that's malice, you can choose to believe its incompetence. No matter what it is their conclusion is necessarily wrong because information is being ignored/denied and not factored in.

RockPaper · Oct 1, 2020

Also, polls tend to tighten closer to the election, either because the race actually tightens, or because pollsters tweak their methods because driving opinion the day before the election doesn't matter, but driving opinion a month (or 3 months, or 6 months) before does matter. Pick your reason.

When people say in hindsight "The polls were accurate!", they mean the final polls within 48 hours of the election. Nobody cares or remembers anything else, which is why polls can be wrong for nearly the entire election cycle (either through malice or incompetence) and it doesn't matter at all.

Shield Breaker · Oct 1, 2020

MrJokerRager said:
No talk of Wallace,

What a coward. There goes the claim Tucker isn't afraid to go after anyone.

Revo · Oct 1, 2020

Someone animated this debate:

Archive

Pistoleer · Oct 1, 2020

Getting tard comed said:
The merchandise gauges enthusiasm. The side with the most enthusiasm has usually won. And by usually we are talking 90%+ rate. In 2016 Trump had a single digit lead in enthusiasm over Clinton. It's a double digit lead this year.

I think Biden’s abysmal lack of enthusiasm is something that very few people are talking about, and probably the biggest indicator he isn’t doing well. All we hear is, Trump said blah blah, Trump did this or that. Trump needs to be stopped. Trump is Hitlersatan. Trump, Trump, Trump. When was the last time you heard ANYONE say anything about Biden that wasn’t he looks old and sleepy? Hell you don’t really even hear negative shit, aside from Trump campaign ads. No one gives a shit about this dude. You’d think as hard as they hate trump they’d try to prop him up as some great savior, but they don’t. Why?

RockPaper · Oct 1, 2020

Pistoleer said:
I think Biden’s abysmal lack of enthusiasm is something that very few people are talking about, and probably the biggest indicator he isn’t doing well. All we hear is, Trump said blah blah, Trump did this or that. Trump needs to be stopped. Trump is Hitlersatan. Trump, Trump, Trump. When was the last time you heard ANYONE say anything about Biden that wasn’t he looks old and sleepy? Hell you don’t really even hear negative shit, aside from Trump campaign ads. No one gives a shit about this dude. You’d think as hard as they hate trump they’d try to prop him up as some great savior, but they don’t. Why?

The dirty secret about Biden is he's never been popular on a national level in his own party. He's been famous enough as a high-profile Senator, but his own White House runs were disasters. Dem voters didn't want him. He's only in this position now because Obama chose him for VP, and that had nothing to do with the voters.

The Last Stand · Oct 1, 2020

MrJokerRager said:
Real talk, unless the black community wants to end up getting fucked harder by new immigrants from countries that don't care about their problems except for the ones indoctrinated by the universities then Trump is a better choice in the economic sense. Plus he is truly pandering harder with the gibs.

And also at best probably get 20 percent of the black vote. Anything more is a wishful thinking.

Evidently, contributing anything to the Black community is haram to some Whites. So Trump lost support from that alone.

ChikN10der · Oct 1, 2020

The Last Stand said:
Evidently, contributing anything to the Black community is haram to some Whites. So Trump lost support from that alone.

What are you basing this analysis on?

Jonah Hill poster · Oct 1, 2020

I never could get why we have to wait 16 days for the second debate, but I find it funny that no one really cares too much about the V.P. debate because Kamala is going up against Mike Pence.

Ruin · Oct 1, 2020

ChikN10der said:
What are you basing this analysis on?

Alt right Twitter spergs like Will Wescott and Eric Striker are sperging out over a poll (which are fucking worthless) saying that trump is down five points or so post debate because he didn't say nigger or some other stupid shit.

Dr. Geronimo · Oct 1, 2020

albertbrown26 said:
I never could get why we have to wait 16 days for the second debate, but I find it funny that no one really cares too much about the V.P. debate because Kamala is going up against Mike Pence.

I'm taking bets on the number of times Harris tries to race bait.

ChikN10der · Oct 1, 2020

Dr. Geronimo said:
I'm taking bets on the number of times Harris tries to race bait.

Whatever the number is, I'll take the over.

gangweedfan · Oct 1, 2020

Amazing. At no point did biden attempt to seriously argue with trump. Instead he stuck to strawmanning him while trump was in the exact same room as him. He even said that he had no intention to "call out his lies" which is the Entire point of having a debate with someone you disagree with.

In a way bidens behavior at the debate represents the current state of the DNC and. They value theatrics over concrete policy and resort to hollow insults when criticized. So when biden says that he is the DNC I agree because the best way to personify the DNC would be as a demntia ridden retard who is desperately trying to stay relevant.

US First Presidental Debate - Boomerdome 2020

Getting tard comed

ChikN10der

ChikN10der

Echo_Ender

Doggo

Baroque

Friendship, Freedom, Fun

ChikN10der

Cyclonus

All hail Galvatron!

Getting tard comed

RockPaper

Shield Breaker

Back but busy

Revo

Pistoleer

RockPaper

The Last Stand

Lady Bougainvillea

ChikN10der

Jonah Hill poster

Ruin

Mercenary Slut

Dr. Geronimo

How do I look, yellow n'wah?

ChikN10der

gangweedfan

Anime is the next stage of evoltin. now yuo see...