Evergrande Financial Panic - Corona is not the only Contagion China is exporting

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Knight of the Rope said:
I think people radically overestimate how coupled different country's economies are. Sure, there's going to be a knock-on effect from an Evergrande collapse to whatever international entities were bag-holding. At least one of them is a Swiss bank, so look forward to some fun times there.
www.finews.asia

UBS Warned Wealthy Clients Over Evergrande

UBS has not said how much of Evergrande’s debt it holds. Although the Swiss bank appears to have warned its wealthy clients about the housing developer’s risk, the alarm bell didn't ring through to other businesses.
www.finews.asia www.finews.asia

But on the whole, I don't think things are going to be as doom-and-gloom as a lot of the other speds above talking about impeding war and whatnot.
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If the Swiss banks are involved, then China is fucked. Rule #0 of keeping your grip on power: NEVER screw with everyone’s completely neutral financial settlement zone.

Someone, somewhere is gonna find a way to hurt China for this down the line. Everyone knows that this crisis is caused by CCP mismanagement, so they can’t even simply toss Evergrande under the bus.
 
RainwaterDrop said:
On the topic of inflation, coming from a non-american perspective I'm going to sound like an asshole but it's expected considering how much money the U. S. Government printed just in the last year, and you guys don't know what actual inflation is. Where I live we are going through it hard right now, just for perspective, stuff that was around 30 bucks in 2018 is now on the range of 50 bucks. A burger went from six bucks to eight bucks in a matter of months, wages are stagnant and good luck finding work if you are unemployed. That's how bad things are!

There is wisdom in worrying about this issue, but right now you guys are still ok. You are a long way from actual decadence!
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I'm not so sure. Does your country have a history of this? America, not so much. The shock will be in comparing today to yesterday, not in America to wherever.
 
E. Knee as Weapon - Cont. said:
I'm not so sure. Does your country have a history of this? America, not so much. The shock will be in comparing today to yesterday, not in America to wherever.
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Yes lol!

But it was way worse in the past. Not close to the worst historical examples, but pretty fucking bad lol!

wopirish said:
They only have 1, and it is 01A, Gebirgsjäger. God help anyone who tries to invade lol.
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The idea of invading Switzerland gives me a headache, we are talking about a small, mountainous country inacessible by sea. Just getting troops there means you have to cross over many other countries in Europe or deploy paratroopers and aircraft, while the swiss play turkey shoot with their anti-air batteries and their mountain warfare troops shoot your paratroopers the second they land. Not even getting into the part where the heavily armed civilian populace captures any troops that land into swiss territory!

There is a reason even Hitler at his apex didn't try to rile up the swiss!

Simple Moving Average said:
Not long enough. It's over in 2-4 weeks. 6 weeks max. Expect fireworks before Christmas. Or during if we're unlucky.
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There won't be a war because of Evergrande, any benefits the CCP gets on the short term aren't worth it on the long term with the inevitable ripple effect of a war with the U.S. and it's allies. Riling up the populace in a war to ignore the economical collapse in their own lands won't work out once the naval blockade turns food into a luxury, and well, you can't eat ammunition and missiles lol!
 
Switzerland was/is conquerable if the invading countries is willing to pay the butcher's bill to do it. Plus given Switzerland's location the invader is all but guaranteed one or more of its other neighbors will try to sodomize them in the meantime. Nowadays while trying to "take and hold" Switzerland isn't in the cards, but for the major power like Uncle Sam it is entirely doable to completely flatten it.
 
RainwaterDrop said:
The idea of invading Switzerland gives me a headache, we are talking about a small, mountainous country inacessible by sea. Just getting troops there means you have to cross over many other countries in Europe or deploy paratroopers and aircraft, while the swiss play turkey shoot with their anti-air batteries and their mountain warfare troops shoot your paratroopers the second they land. Not even getting into the part where the heavily armed civilian populace captures any troops that land into swiss territory!

There is a reason even Hitler at his apex didn't try to rile up the swiss!
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The vast majority of Swiss don't live in the easily defensible areas and the Swiss army would get BTFO the same as any other small country's army. The reason Hitler didn't invade was because it would be a waste of resources (Wehrmacht+Italians said they'd need 300-500K men, which is 300K-500K men not on the Eastern Front) and far worse, meant the Nazis couldn't bank their literal Jewgold with the Swiss anymore.

The Swiss themselves knew defeat was inevitable and decided the best strategy was to abandon most of their population and hole up in the mountains where barely anyone lived and shoot at any Germans who got near/flew overhead. That's not a winning strategy, that's a self-governing prison camp and is exactly what the Allies did with many Japanese islands and fortresses in the Pacific. Most of them would probably run out of supplies (including food) to put up much resistance before the war ended.
 
Save the Loli said:
The Swiss themselves knew defeat was inevitable and decided the best strategy was to abandon most of their population and hole up in the mountains where barely anyone lived and shoot at any Germans who got near/flew overhead. That's not a winning strategy, that's a self-governing prison camp and is exactly what the Allies did with many Japanese islands and fortresses in the Pacific. Most of them would probably run out of supplies (including food) to put up much resistance before the war ended.
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Having said that the Swiss had a great answer to Hitler when he said I have 250 thousand men at arms the swiss had roughtly half that the Swiss diplomat said somthing like - Our men will just have to show up and shoot twice then before going home and that was in 39/40 when he was on a roll.
 
RainwaterDrop said:
Yes lol!

But it was way worse in the past. Not close to the worst historical examples, but pretty fucking bad lol!


The idea of invading Switzerland gives me a headache, we are talking about a small, mountainous country inacessible by sea. Just getting troops there means you have to cross over many other countries in Europe or deploy paratroopers and aircraft, while the swiss play turkey shoot with their anti-air batteries and their mountain warfare troops shoot your paratroopers the second they land. Not even getting into the part where the heavily armed civilian populace captures any troops that land into swiss territory!

There is a reason even Hitler at his apex didn't try to rile up the swiss!


There won't be a war because of Evergrande, any benefits the CCP gets on the short term aren't worth it on the long term with the inevitable ripple effect of a war with the U.S. and it's allies. Riling up the populace in a war to ignore the economical collapse in their own lands won't work out once the naval blockade turns food into a luxury, and well, you can't eat ammunition and missiles lol!
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I was talking market/economics fireworks, not the ammunition and missile kind..
 
I was talking about how China was gonna be fucked over in every possible way by all other countries, not about how Switzerland would suddenly go ham.
 
Which domino will be the first to fall? Which card will slip that will bring down the house?

Was it Lehman brothers in 2008? (If so) what will be the straw that breaks the camels back for this upcoming financial collapse?
 
Hot Cup of Joe said:
Which domino will be the first to fall? Which card will slip that will bring down the house?

Was it Lehman brothers in 2008? (If so) what will be the straw that breaks the camels back for this upcoming financial collapse?
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d6f9cf1379e6ddc44644cfd168dd07d4efca444b9f01668f9811113e116c2d89_1.jpg

Pic related: the global economy
 
RainwaterDrop said:
On the topic of inflation, coming from a non-american perspective I'm going to sound like an asshole but it's expected considering how much money the U. S. Government printed just in the last year, and you guys don't know what actual inflation is. Where I live we are going through it hard right now, just for perspective, stuff that was around 30 bucks in 2018 is now on the range of 50 bucks. A burger went from six bucks to eight bucks in a matter of months, wages are stagnant and good luck finding work if you are unemployed. That's how bad things are!
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Fellow Cancuckistani?
 
As China’s Property Crisis Spreads, Beijing Says There’s Nothing to See

Their premise is 'Evergrande is going to be fine now, but the rest of the property sector is in peril!'

How is Evergrande fine? Logistically and financially, can anyone explain that to me? We already covered that they can't afford to keep building stuff -- they're already paying off people with unfinished apartments -- and that they have a finite amount of holdings and personal assets which aren't enough to cover their debt.
 
Just fucking love how the New York Times won’t give me dates, cum sucking bottom scum fucking journalists. This next Wednesday? As in tomorrow? Or next week? When is the next 150 million due?
 
LatinasAreTheFuture said:
Just fucking love how the New York Times won’t give me dates, cum sucking bottom scum fucking journalists. This next Wednesday? As in tomorrow? Or next week? When is the next 150 million due?
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They've got another deadline coming up on the 11th for $148 million. But there's a 100% chance that they let that one slip into a 30-day grace period too. Even though they actually technically have the money for that repayment (since they've been selling assets like crazy), it's presumably a dick move to pay off upcoming debts when you're already overdue with stakeholders 'patiently' waiting on previous debts.
archive.ph

China Evergrande Scrapes Together More Cash From Tech Company Stake S…

archived 8 Nov 2021 16:04:53 UTC
archive.ph archive.ph

ETA: Disregard. I just double-checked the schedule I posted a while back and the 11th is when the already overdue payments become "Pay this or you don't get to be a company anymore"-levels of due. So they've already got the money to repay these (and once again, they got the money at literally the last moment possible and by cannibalizing their company's assets, y'know, like all solvent companies do).

tl;dr: The $148 comes due on the 11th. They already have the money. (And they've got another 'minor' $19 million repayment coming up on the 19th.)
 
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