Evergrande Financial Panic - Corona is not the only Contagion China is exporting

[Sped Xing]

Man, if you're so offended about what I've said in this thread, you really should avoid the La Palma one.

 

[Kramer on the phone]

If being muhture means getting assblasted that three weeks ago, someone said Evergrande collapsing didn't worry them, well. Consider me a Toys R Us kid.

you trying to say something? i got a nice fisher price hard hat with your name on it.


As for war with the US; the only way i think it would work is the way the CIA has been fucking every other country in the americas, make it a color revolution, imagine the summer of George but then motherfuckers start going after infrastructure and suddenly cops families end up slaughtered while mr.pig is out on patrol then the stations themselves start cutting back on hours because of lack of staff, did i mention the supply shortages and lack of gas. If you can't drive to work to yo job to afford those child support payments to avoid jail guess who's fault it is, The Man's so you riot some mo'

eventually the agents in charge of creating the problem also help fund the solution too, some political wunderkind that has all the right answers and does it with a gun, plus as we saw from the summer of george. the political class and military won't do shit so that colo revolution ends up very quickly being able to fuck shit up outside of the government's control, and beyond that our boys in uniform would be too busy trying to repair shit to actually do anything about the constant warfare, and you might say "well the media would never support X" forgetting that any rando that pissed off the Don ended up getitng the full backing of the media. and thats before you also remember the news stations were getting fucked up too, and they still called it a "peaceful protest"

Hell thats a big reason for the highway system too, if you notice it was such a fucking hassle making supply lines that most of the time any local unions or anarchy basically won outright by the time the troops were called in. Eisenhower himself said trying to go cross country back in the 20s fucked him up worse psychologically than seeing the concentration camps, ww2+ww1 combined. And with how much of our interior are still deadzones, it would be easy as shit to just start guerilling it up. hell just the fact that we allow gangs and cartels to get such huge holds in our cities proves how weak our system is. It took the US going full death squad to take out the mafia, and our government is letting crime get to record numbers. pretty much every theory about how crime suddenly dropped in the 90s outside of the US deciding to intervene on behalf of the jews has been proven wrong, just thanks to how bad shits gotten the last 18 months, and thats before the starving times.

Plus with the amount of immigrants we let in and how no one in government seems to give a fuck, sending munitions up through the border with a couple thousand merc would be easy as shit. you think shit got bad when it was just nogs with home made molotovs, imagine when they get their hands on the mortars.

and beyond that we haven't even gotten into how litte the people in charge genuinely care about places outside the major cities. You don't have to take over the whole country, if your army takes Brooklyn you'll get our generals to the negotiating table. you just get silicon valley and suddenly the generals hand you congress too. You guys think a US war would be like risk, its more like stratego, doesn't matter how bad youre kicking the chinks ass if they get your flag.

 

[George Lucas]

I love when Kiwis start flipping out when their financial collapse doesn’t happen.

 

[Justa Grata Honoria]

I love when Kiwis start flipping out when their financial collapse doesn’t happen.

Don't know about flipping out but timing of full blown financial collapse to a bubble is much more difficult than most think. 2008 collapse had first cracks showing in 2006. But considering they never solved properly their issues i can tell you financial collapse is going to happen either in China or USA between end of November and begging in May next year .

 

[Knight of the Rope]

I love when Kiwis start flipping out when their financial collapse doesn’t happen.

I don't know about the other speds in this thread, but I've always been just in it to watch the chink property market collapse and take out a good deal of their economic system for years to come. Those of us in the civilized western world probably don't have too much to worry about from Evergrande collapsing directly (although the inflation figures are starting to look a little worrying). There's opportunity here to make some serious bank though, for those that are paying attention to the shitshow.

But as for the Chinese property market? That's looking worse every day. Here, just today Kaisa Group Holdings announced that they missed a payment deadline. Real estate companies are seeing drops of 20%+ which is triggering trading halts, and Evergrande bond investors are actually doing a stocktake of Hui Ka Yan's physical assets to try and eyeball how long he could keep Evergrande afloat when the Chinese authorities start demanding that he cover for his company's losses.

Bond Deadline Looms; Hui’s Megayacht in Focus: Evergrande Update

A unit of China Evergrande Group faces a key deadline for a coupon payment Saturday, while bondholders eye the personal assets of the company’s founder -- including a megayacht in Hong Kong -- to weigh his ability to meet some of the liabilities.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[George Lucas]

I don't know about the other speds in this thread, but I've always been just in it to watch the chink property market collapse and take out a good deal of their economic system for years to come. Those of us in the civilized western world probably don't have too much to worry about from Evergrande collapsing directly (although the inflation figures are starting to look a little worrying). There's opportunity here to make some serious bank though, for those that are paying attention to the shitshow.

But as for the Chinese property market? That's looking worse every day. Here, just today Kaisa Group Holdings announced that they missed a payment deadline. Real estate companies are seeing drops of 20%+ which is triggering trading halts, and Evergrande bond investors are actually doing a stocktake of Hui Ka Yan's physical assets to try and eyeball how long he could keep Evergrande afloat when the Chinese authorities start demanding that he cover for his company's losses.

Bond Deadline Looms; Hui’s Megayacht in Focus: Evergrande Update

A unit of China Evergrande Group faces a key deadline for a coupon payment Saturday, while bondholders eye the personal assets of the company’s founder -- including a megayacht in Hong Kong -- to weigh his ability to meet some of the liabilities.

www.bloomberg.com

This is the take I don’t get. There are very few isolated economies, and China isn’t one of them. Giddying over a Chinese economic collapse is dumb. It’s not going to create any freedom for the country (if anything it will set the country back on the few freedoms she managed to acquire since the Gang of Four were arrested), and it’s only going to make our economy worse. There’s an argument to be made about ripping the bandage off and getting a better global economy in the long run, but that better economy could be achieved less disruptively with strategic fiscal policy.

Shitting on people halfway around the world reeks of cope for someone who is disappointed in their own economic performance and is always looking for someone else to blame.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

You're expressing what many people feel towards one another, that is apathy and indifference and that's fine. Thing is, you're 200 years too late - stock market crashes and poors eat more dirt than kikes ever will.

You realize that it's unbecoming for a man in his late thirties to be this empathy deficient, right? What about your wife? You sure she's okay with having to eat dirt if yellow kikes crash the market?

Your grandparents must've enjoyed the Dustbowl and Great Depression. I mean, kikes also took a big hit during that.

If the ponzi scheme is going to unravel(and make no mistake it will) I'd much rather have it unravel when I'm young and able to start over again. Does that make me selfish? Probably, but theres always going to be 80 year olds in the world, and why does anyone in particular need to be the selfless character who halts the collapse until their retirement?

 

[Sped Xing]

Shitting on people halfway around the world reeks of cope for someone who is disappointed in their own economic performance and is always looking for someone else to blame.

I'm just envious that their cocks are bigger than mine.

 

[Knight of the Rope]

This is the take I don’t get. There are very few isolated economies, and China isn’t one of them.

I think people radically overestimate how coupled different country's economies are. Sure, there's going to be a knock-on effect from an Evergrande collapse to whatever international entities were bag-holding. At least one of them is a Swiss bank, so look forward to some fun times there.

UBS Warned Wealthy Clients Over Evergrande

UBS has not said how much of Evergrande’s debt it holds. Although the Swiss bank appears to have warned its wealthy clients about the housing developer’s risk, the alarm bell didn't ring through to other businesses.

www.finews.asia

But on the whole, I don't think things are going to be as doom-and-gloom as a lot of the other speds above talking about impeding war and whatnot.

Giddying over a Chinese economic collapse is dumb.

Nuh-uh. It's fun! And like I said, there's money to be made in such chaos if you know where to invest.

It’s not going to create any freedom for the country (if anything it will set the country back on the few freedoms she managed to acquire since the Gang of Four were arrested),

That sounds like a 'them' problem.

and it’s only going to make our economy worse. There’s an argument to be made about ripping the bandage off and getting a better global economy in the long run, but that better economy could be achieved less disruptively with strategic fiscal policy.

The global economy hasn't been looking too good for a long time, though. Something had to give eventually, and now we've arrived at 'eventually'. And I don't even think Evergrande is going to be too much of a catalyst, particularly compared to the growing supply chain fiasco and the aftershakes of all the Covid lockdowns.

Shitting on people halfway around the world reeks of cope for someone who is disappointed in their own economic performance and is always looking for someone else to blame.

Guilty as charged. I don't feel bad about it, neither.

 

[George Lucas]

I think people radically overestimate how coupled different country's economies are. Sure, there's going to be a knock-on effect from an Evergrande collapse to whatever international entities were bag-holding. At least one of them is a Swiss bank, so look forward to some fun times there.

UBS Warned Wealthy Clients Over Evergrande

UBS has not said how much of Evergrande’s debt it holds. Although the Swiss bank appears to have warned its wealthy clients about the housing developer’s risk, the alarm bell didn't ring through to other businesses.

www.finews.asia

But on the whole, I don't think things are going to be as doom-and-gloom as a lot of the other speds above talking about impeding war and whatnot.


Nuh-uh. It's fun! And like I said, there's money to be made in such chaos if you know where to invest.


That sounds like a 'them' problem.


The global economy hasn't been looking too good for a long time, though. Something had to give eventually, and now we've arrived at 'eventually'. And I don't even think Evergrande is going to be too much of a catalyst, particularly compared to the growing supply chain fiasco and the aftershakes of all the Covid lockdowns.


Guilty as charged. I don't feel bad about it, neither.

I’ll admit you did a good job of protecting your ass with this response.

I’ll go attack someone else now (in Minecraft).

 

[Lord of the Large Pants]

This is the take I don’t get. There are very few isolated economies, and China isn’t one of them. Giddying over a Chinese economic collapse is dumb. It’s not going to create any freedom for the country (if anything it will set the country back on the few freedoms she managed to acquire since the Gang of Four were arrested), and it’s only going to make our economy worse. There’s an argument to be made about ripping the bandage off and getting a better global economy in the long run, but that better economy could be achieved less disruptively with strategic fiscal policy.

Shitting on people halfway around the world reeks of cope for someone who is disappointed in their own economic performance and is always looking for someone else to blame.

The problem is that we're never going to disentangle ourselves from China as long as MBAs think we can save .000001 cents a year by outsourcing to chink slave labor, and damn everything else. I don't want something catastrophic to happen. I do want something moderately dramatic to happen sooner so something catastrophic doesn't happen later.

 

[Fcret]

This is the take I don’t get. There are very few isolated economies, and China isn’t one of them. Giddying over a Chinese economic collapse is dumb. It’s not going to create any freedom for the country (if anything it will set the country back on the few freedoms she managed to acquire since the Gang of Four were arrested), and it’s only going to make our economy worse. There’s an argument to be made about ripping the bandage off and getting a better global economy in the long run, but that better economy could be achieved less disruptively with strategic fiscal policy.

Just like the Japanese bubble popping or 1997 Asian financial crisis caused the US economy to implode? The fun thing about the current China happenings is that there's relatively little room for contagion and so we get to sit back and enjoy the show with (relatively) little skin in the game.

 

[IAmNotAlpharius]

Just like the Japanese bubble popping or 1997 Asian financial crisis caused the US economy to implode? The fun thing about the current China happenings is that there's relatively little room for contagion and so we get to sit back and enjoy the show with (relatively) little skin in the game.

To be honest I think we’re all going to be in pain but it’ll be more of a prolonged whimper and be contributed to general incompetence.

 

[Uranus Pink]

Don't know about flipping out but timing of full blown financial collapse to a bubble is much more difficult than most think. 2008 collapse had first cracks showing in 2006. But considering they never solved properly their issues i can tell you financial collapse is going to happen either in China or USA between end of November and begging in May next year .

The 2008 collapse was set into motion way back with Carter's Community Reinvestment Act. Which Clinton weaponize against the banks who refuse to give out loans to deadbeats who ain't going to pay them off. The subprime loan bullshit is all on the banks. All Bush done was give out flaccid warnings of the impending collapse during his first term. Which senators Dodd and Frank drowned him out and made sure the collapse happened on Bush's watch. Although Bush's "too big to fail" TARP is entirely all on him.

 

[contradiction of terns]

China Evergrande, Strapped for Cash, Offloads Its Jets

How long did you guys say the guy could finance interest payments if he used all his personal wealth? I know he can't actually pay off the debts, but I seem to recall he could limp them along for quite a while.

 

[Michael Janke]

How long did you guys say the guy could finance interest payments if he used all his personal wealth? I know he can't actually pay off the debts, but I seem to recall he could limp them along for quite a while.

that number calculated by me was plainly wrong. i think the dude was supposedly worth 8 billion.
the problem is that a very good chunk of that is tied up in evergrande stock
so he probable has less then 2 billion.
also, most of these payments are in the hundreds of millions.
so he could probably limp them along for 6ish months if he can liquidate it all fast enough.

 

[Garm]

China Evergrande, Strapped for Cash, Offloads Its Jets

How long did you guys say the guy could finance interest payments if he used all his personal wealth? I know he can't actually pay off the debts, but I seem to recall he could limp them along for quite a while.

I doubt they have too much longer. As Michael Janke pointed out, most of the CEO's value is in Evergrande stock which he would have to find some one to buy. Which is a problem with the CCP has taken a bullhorn and said "this stock is worthless" to the Chinese business community.

I also saw an article saying Evergrande was paying vendors in apartments. As in "We don't have cash, please take this piece of property."

 

[Michael Janke]

I also saw an article saying Evergrande was paying vendors in apartments. As in "We don't have cash, please take this piece of property."

i think if its gotten to the point where they're selling jets and shit. their days are numbered. i give them a year before they default.

 

[Knight of the Rope]

I also saw an article saying Evergrande was paying vendors in apartments. As in "We don't have cash, please take this piece of property."

Unfinished property too. They're all half-done apartments that Evergrande doesn't have the money to finish because, like all good Ponzi schemes, they were planning on finishing the properties by using money they'd get from roping in the next batch of suckers.

 

[RainwaterDrop]

I don't know about the other speds in this thread, but I've always been just in it to watch the chink property market collapse and take out a good deal of their economic system for years to come. Those of us in the civilized western world probably don't have too much to worry about from Evergrande collapsing directly (although the inflation figures are starting to look a little worrying). There's opportunity here to make some serious bank though, for those that are paying attention to the shitshow.

On the topic of inflation, coming from a non-american perspective I'm going to sound like an asshole but it's expected considering how much money the U. S. Government printed just in the last year, and you guys don't know what actual inflation is. Where I live we are going through it hard right now, just for perspective, stuff that was around 30 bucks in 2018 is now on the range of 50 bucks. A burger went from six bucks to eight bucks in a matter of months, wages are stagnant and good luck finding work if you are unemployed. That's how bad things are!

There is wisdom in worrying about this issue, but right now you guys are still ok. You are a long way from actual decadence!

i think if its gotten to the point where they're selling jets and shit. their days are numbered. i give them a year before they default.

The Party made it clear they don't care about them, and there is only so much they can sell before running out of assets to liquidate. Evergrande is dead even with the generous payment schedule they have been "blessed" with, in my perspective that was the CCP giving them a choice of a last meal before their execution, to soften the blow!

Just like the Japanese bubble popping or 1997 Asian financial crisis caused the US economy to implode? The fun thing about the current China happenings is that there's relatively little room for contagion and so we get to sit back and enjoy the show with (relatively) little skin in the game.

There will be pain, they have major economical ties to the U.S. and other countries. If their economy gets shafted there will be a ripple effect, not enough to cripple the U.S. Economy but it won't be nice considering the world is just recovering from the Coof Crisis!