@Alexander Hamilton Not to beat a dead horse since you laid out the plea bargain and failed probation scenario quite well, but what would normal sentences for Chris's crimes typically carry once he blows it? How does a prosecutor and the defense typically come to a mutual agreement on these matters where it is less about one side "winning" and justice is served? Sorry for the dumb question, it's open for anyone to answer. I'm largely clueless about the law so any insight would be appreciated.
So this is hard to say because it's so situational. Unless you're talking about the Federal system or a state system that uses a sentencing matrix with tight ranges, there's a lot of room and where you go within that is determined by a confluence of so many factors. To name a few:
Defendant's criminal history
Exact facts of the offense - there's a difference between rape where the guy got too pushy and didn't listen versus rape by a pro rapist who has his rape kit and is breaking into houses of people he doesn't even know, for example.
Amount and strength of evidence
Community viewpoints - both the prosecution and defense know what a local jury would probably give for this offense, or whether they view intimate partner violence as something the state shouldn't be involved in or have a tendency to discount the testimony of anyone claiming rape, and so forth.
Elected officials - Did your boss just send out an email saying we're no longer offering probation for DUI, or that we don't care about pot anymore?
Whole person analysis of the Defendant - are we talking about a college kid who needs a short sharp shock to become a productive member of society, or are we talking about Bubba. Every jurisdiction has a Bubba. Bubba is a habitual petty thief, wife beater, and meth offender. The third rule of life behind death and taxes is that Bubba will always be on your criminal docket somewhere.
Who does the Defendant have for counsel? - Some defense lawyers are weak and will push their client to take any offer that isn't the max or completely outrageous. Others are tough and you sit down with them and an hour later you come out with an acceptable plea deal feeling like you just went three rounds with Mike Tyson. And then you get the crazy ones, who will encourage their clients to take every case to trial no matter what.
And so on... it's a really long list.
In terms of Chris, the only charge we can be certain of right now is the incest so I'll focus on that. It carries a max of ten.
He's probably not getting maxed out. But I would expect him to get at least 5 of the 10, because he does have prior criminal history and some of it is violent. The facts of the offense, even if it's charged as incest and not rape, are also not great for him. There's also been a fair bit of national attention to the case - maybe 8 of 10, with the defense attorney getting his client to accept because as long as he behaves himself he won't serve the full 8.
To give you a concrete example of how all this comes together, I've constructed a little case example. This is an amalgam of several cases I've prosecuted, and obviously the names aren't real.
Julie is 14. She sneaks out of her house on Friday night and goes to a party. At the party she meets up with Ricardo. He's in his early twenties. They've been communicating via text and Facebook for a while after they met on some app for the local area. After the party they end up at Ricardo's mom's house, where he forces her to have sex with him. She makes it home the next day, tells her parents everything, they call the police and she gives a full statement.
I charge Ricardo with rape 1. He gives a fairly incriminating interview to the police, on videotape, where he makes some statements that would not go over well with a jury. He admits the sex but claims it was entirely consensual and she told him she was over 18.
Ricardo has a juvenile record and a few domestic violence charges since he became an adult. All his adult charges have been dismissed due to victim cooperation issues.
Rape carries up to life. In this jurisdiction, there's a law in place that ensures rapists serve almost all their sentence. My first offer is 45 years.
I give defense counsel the video of the interrogation..they let me know Ricardo's father also claims Julie said she was over 18, that Ricardo still says it was consensual, and his client wants probation and is claiming a drug and alcohol addiction that he wants treatment for. Both of us know it's hard to get a guilty verdict on rape 1 from one of our rural juries.
All of this plays out over months, while Ricardo sits in jail.
My side of the case starts developing problems. It's very difficult for me to talk with Julie. Her parents don't want her to talk to me. They say she's been traumatized and just needs to put this behind her. They tell me justice, to them, looks like real prison time but her not having to testify. They beg me to find a way to avoid her having to testify.
In the end, the defense counsel and I come to an agreement. I will allow Ricardo to plead to rape 2 - so called statutory rape - since his knowledge of the victim's age is irrelevant there. Ricardo gets to maintain he didn't forcibly rape anyone. He will agree to 15 years in prison, of which he will serve approximately 13.
In the end, I feel good about it. Julie doesn't have to testify, and Ricardo will have to register as a sex offender for the rest of his life. By the time he gets out of prison, his victim will be an established adult.
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