re: Peak ICE
I doubt we've reached it. The new GT3 engine has been described as a turbo charged unit without turbos. It is very sophisticated. I do think that we're probably close to the limits of reasonable tire and grip.
Much of the talk about the death of ICE seems to be coming from European manufacturers, where there is immense pressure to abandon ICE-powered light vehicles due to regulatory changes ranging from tightened emissions standards (think
Euro 7) and some countries just flat out banning ICE-powered light vehicles.
My strong tip: Mazda will be one of the last ICE-powered vehicle manufacturers standing. They have a tradition of pushing ahead with engine technology years after it's been abandoned by the mainstream (i.e. rotary engines) and their major markets are Japan, the USA and Australia. The only one of these markets where there's a set date for new ICE-powered vehicles to be withdrawn from sale is
Japan, and even then hybrids will remain legal.
Another reason why I'm picking Mazda as the last of the holdouts: they've just developed an inline 6 cylinder ICE which is due to debut this year. Just as Kia is about to
can the Stinger and go all-in on BEVs, Mazda is releasing a
RWD Mazda6 with this new engine.
If Mazda need JDM BEVs, they can just tap another manufacturer on the shoulder and start rebadging someone else's vehicles.
I think with ICE the situation isn't have we reached an end but have we got to a point where the updates, increases in power, and etc are worth the additional complexity and cost. Volvo has a pretty stout 2 liter I4 but that stoutness comes at being both turbo charged, super charged and battery assisted.
Hybrids are the best of both worlds rn. There's a reason why in some countries, Toyota sells more hybrid vehicles than they do ICE vehicles. I'm looking forward to seeing how Toyota's hybrid tech translates to vehicles like the LandCruiser 300 and the Hilux.
At some point, simplicity in electric is going to be the mass market appeal.
It'll get to a point where BEVs are cheaper to produce than ICE-powered vehicles. One area that's worth watching is FCEV (i.e. hydrogen). It's still early days, but it looks like there is a lot of potential for FCEVs in vehicle segments dominated by diesel today i.e. heavy haulage.
In the long term, I'd expect a mix of fuels being used for transport. Gasoline and diesel will still be around, but mainly for specialty vehicles and long distance use (with the latter use case potentially being taken over by FCEV).
Any of you ever visit the Lane motor museum in Nashville? I went there recently and it was really neat. It's mostly European cars, which I don't see a lot of at car shows, besides obvious ones like Porsches and maybe the odd Lamborghini
The Lane Motor Museum is on my bucket list when/if I ever get to the States.
Serious/retarded question: how important is replacing your a) transmission fluid and b) radiator fluid in late 90s-early 2000s (or really any) car right on the date? I've heard mixed things from old farts from the last century and what the manufacturers say to do (always along the line of "use premium gas only"). I'm not sure what the truth is and would like your opinions my frens..
It depends on the car. That said, the phrase "sealed for life" is a crock and any mechanic that tells you that you don't need to change your trans fluid because it's sealed for life is either an imbecile or they're expecting you to come back to them to replace the tranny (making said mechanic several thousand dollars richer in the process).
On the other end of the spectrum, some manufacturers insist that the trans fluid is changed on a regular basis. For example Honda insists that the fluid in their CVTs is changed every 2 years or 40,000km (around 25,000 Freedom Units). My wife bought a 2005 Jazz (a.k.a Fit) brand new and the CVT fluid has been changed every 2 years. 17 years later and no problems (touch wood).
As for coolant, that's a different story. The tech has really improved since the '90s. These days, coolant can last for 8-10 years or even longer. That same Honda I mentioned in the previous paragraph is running the same coolant it had from the factory and it's still doing its job. That said, I'm thinking of changing it soon anyway as a pre-emptive measure.
Meanwhile, the coolant on my 2012 VW looks like it needs changing soon. It's gone from being pink to a dull orange colour, suggesting that there may be some potential corrosion issues.
Sidebar: the latest MCM project is giving me serious feels as it's the first time they've bought a car that I own.
The other thing to bear in mind is that metallurgy and the materials used in ICE manufacture have changed since the '90s. Back then, it was typical to have an alloy head on a cast iron block. Aluminum and iron don't play nice, hence the need to use coolant with corrosion inhibitors and change it every couple of years. Now most ICE engines are 100% alloy, this issue really don't exist anymore.
Please give me all the puzzle pieces... I've sperged on way too much in this post