L | A (Translated with ChatGPT)
By Balázs Bárány
In traditionally Catholic Austria, the Roman Catholic Church has lost its majority of the population. This was expected to happen in the fall of 2024, but recent figures for 2023 suggest that it already occurred in the summer. With a high number of departures, the Church lost nearly two percent of its former members in a single year and slightly more than one percent of the entire Austrian population.
Yesterday, the Roman Catholic Church in Austria published its statistics for the previous year. The number of departures in 2023 was 85,163, the third-highest value on record, slightly below the record of the previous year (90,975). The total loss is made up of departures, the deficit between baptisms and deaths, as well as migration movements.
By the end of 2023, there were thus 94,243 fewer Roman Catholics in Austria than at the end of 2022, which corresponds to 1.99 percent of the previous figure.
On its statistics page, the Church presents the decline as 1.9 percent, which is either the result of incorrect rounding or an error that would be penalized in any math test: the rounded numbers given there do indeed result in this percentage decrease when they are used instead of the correct numbers.
In its publication, the Church avoids comparing its figures with the overall Austrian population. According to the official population figures from Statistics Austria, at the end of 2022, 52 percent of Austria's population was Roman Catholic, and this share dropped to 50.6 percent within a year. It is not difficult to conclude that this share will fall below 50 percent during 2024.
The previous forecasts, based on the figures up to 2022, used a weighted average of the losses from the past three years to make a cautious projection for the period afterward. This turned out to be somewhat too cautious, as the losses in 2023 were about one-tenth higher than predicted by this simple model.
With the release of the 2023 figures, the forecast of when the Catholic population would fall below half was improved. If the outflow has not significantly changed during the first part of 2024, then it happened in July 2024: the Roman Catholic share of the population in Austria fell below 50 percent.
Slightly more or fewer departures could shift this date by a few weeks forward or backward, but by mid to late September 2024, we can confidently say that Austria is no longer majority Catholic.
Membership recruitment is not working
The decline in membership also affects other key indicators of church life.
The diagram shows the three stages of children's and youths' connection to the church over time. Baptisms of young children, who are not yet able to make the decision for themselves, fell below 40,000 for the first time, aside from the COVID year of 2020.
The church's narrative attributes this "primarily" to demographic trends, but the fact remains that the proportion of baptized newborns decreases year by year.
This decline is also noticeable, with some delay, in First Communions (at age
and Confirmations (at age 14), with their numbers, and thus the connection to the institution, consistently falling, except for the unique pandemic year of 2020.
This is not surprising, as the secularization of parents increasingly shields children from contact with the church. Children who are not baptized and teenagers who consciously opt out of Confirmation generally do not become church taxpayers.
Money from Members and Non-Members
The church's income rose slightly in 2023, from 500 million euros (2022) to 511 million euros. This is an increase of 2.2 percent, which is well below the inflation rate, meaning the nominal growth corresponds to a real value loss. Despite budget cuts, the majority of dioceses still managed to report a slight surplus.
Also helpful were the so-called "reparations" from the state, which increased from 55.7 to 61.5 million euros, along with rental and lease revenues, which rose from 27.5 to 30.9 million euros.
How much longer the Republic of Austria will continue to make these payments, which were introduced when the Catholic population share was well over 90 percent, will likely become a topic of discussion in the new Austria, where Catholics are now a minority.
Due to the difficult economic situation, expenditures had to be more focused on the organization’s internal purposes. Thus, it is not surprising that spending on "Social and Charitable Tasks" and "Global Church and Development Aid" decreased both in absolute terms and as a percentage of total expenditures.
These are the categories the church often presents as its contribution to the public good, but together they account for only 4 percent of its total expenses (2.5 percent for social tasks and 1.5 percent for development aid in 2023). Combined, they don't even make up half of the state payments – the Republic of Austria could put this amount to better use.
Starting in 2025, the upper limit for the tax deductibility of church contributions will be raised from 400 to 600 euros. This only affects higher earners, meaning the state will lose out on a few more million euros in taxes. Unfortunately, there has been no consideration yet of a secularization fund, which could wisely allocate the tax funds freed up by those who leave the church.
Professional Catholics
Once again, the number of priests declined more sharply than that of members, from 3,403 (2022) to 3,320. This represents a decrease of 2.4 percent. The number of "permanent deacons"—unordained assistants for parish duties—also fell. This marks a change from recent years, which had been characterized by steady growth.
New Developments in Church Departures
In the summer of 2024, Upper Austria, the last remaining federal state, was convinced to allow online church departures. Whether this will lead to an increase in the number of departures remains to be seen.
By Balázs Bárány
In traditionally Catholic Austria, the Roman Catholic Church has lost its majority of the population. This was expected to happen in the fall of 2024, but recent figures for 2023 suggest that it already occurred in the summer. With a high number of departures, the Church lost nearly two percent of its former members in a single year and slightly more than one percent of the entire Austrian population.
Yesterday, the Roman Catholic Church in Austria published its statistics for the previous year. The number of departures in 2023 was 85,163, the third-highest value on record, slightly below the record of the previous year (90,975). The total loss is made up of departures, the deficit between baptisms and deaths, as well as migration movements.
By the end of 2023, there were thus 94,243 fewer Roman Catholics in Austria than at the end of 2022, which corresponds to 1.99 percent of the previous figure.
On its statistics page, the Church presents the decline as 1.9 percent, which is either the result of incorrect rounding or an error that would be penalized in any math test: the rounded numbers given there do indeed result in this percentage decrease when they are used instead of the correct numbers.
In its publication, the Church avoids comparing its figures with the overall Austrian population. According to the official population figures from Statistics Austria, at the end of 2022, 52 percent of Austria's population was Roman Catholic, and this share dropped to 50.6 percent within a year. It is not difficult to conclude that this share will fall below 50 percent during 2024.
The previous forecasts, based on the figures up to 2022, used a weighted average of the losses from the past three years to make a cautious projection for the period afterward. This turned out to be somewhat too cautious, as the losses in 2023 were about one-tenth higher than predicted by this simple model.
With the release of the 2023 figures, the forecast of when the Catholic population would fall below half was improved. If the outflow has not significantly changed during the first part of 2024, then it happened in July 2024: the Roman Catholic share of the population in Austria fell below 50 percent.
Slightly more or fewer departures could shift this date by a few weeks forward or backward, but by mid to late September 2024, we can confidently say that Austria is no longer majority Catholic.
Membership recruitment is not working
The decline in membership also affects other key indicators of church life.
The diagram shows the three stages of children's and youths' connection to the church over time. Baptisms of young children, who are not yet able to make the decision for themselves, fell below 40,000 for the first time, aside from the COVID year of 2020.
The church's narrative attributes this "primarily" to demographic trends, but the fact remains that the proportion of baptized newborns decreases year by year.
This decline is also noticeable, with some delay, in First Communions (at age
and Confirmations (at age 14), with their numbers, and thus the connection to the institution, consistently falling, except for the unique pandemic year of 2020. This is not surprising, as the secularization of parents increasingly shields children from contact with the church. Children who are not baptized and teenagers who consciously opt out of Confirmation generally do not become church taxpayers.
Money from Members and Non-Members
The church's income rose slightly in 2023, from 500 million euros (2022) to 511 million euros. This is an increase of 2.2 percent, which is well below the inflation rate, meaning the nominal growth corresponds to a real value loss. Despite budget cuts, the majority of dioceses still managed to report a slight surplus.
Also helpful were the so-called "reparations" from the state, which increased from 55.7 to 61.5 million euros, along with rental and lease revenues, which rose from 27.5 to 30.9 million euros.
How much longer the Republic of Austria will continue to make these payments, which were introduced when the Catholic population share was well over 90 percent, will likely become a topic of discussion in the new Austria, where Catholics are now a minority.
Due to the difficult economic situation, expenditures had to be more focused on the organization’s internal purposes. Thus, it is not surprising that spending on "Social and Charitable Tasks" and "Global Church and Development Aid" decreased both in absolute terms and as a percentage of total expenditures.
These are the categories the church often presents as its contribution to the public good, but together they account for only 4 percent of its total expenses (2.5 percent for social tasks and 1.5 percent for development aid in 2023). Combined, they don't even make up half of the state payments – the Republic of Austria could put this amount to better use.
Starting in 2025, the upper limit for the tax deductibility of church contributions will be raised from 400 to 600 euros. This only affects higher earners, meaning the state will lose out on a few more million euros in taxes. Unfortunately, there has been no consideration yet of a secularization fund, which could wisely allocate the tax funds freed up by those who leave the church.
Professional Catholics
Once again, the number of priests declined more sharply than that of members, from 3,403 (2022) to 3,320. This represents a decrease of 2.4 percent. The number of "permanent deacons"—unordained assistants for parish duties—also fell. This marks a change from recent years, which had been characterized by steady growth.
New Developments in Church Departures
In the summer of 2024, Upper Austria, the last remaining federal state, was convinced to allow online church departures. Whether this will lead to an increase in the number of departures remains to be seen.
