UN Venezuela Megathread - Mercenaries 2 references galore! Cubanodun is MVP

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https://www.rt.com/news/449644-maduro-closing-us-embassy/

The fire rises
And since Hillary isn't president, there's a good chance they'll get reinforcements if there's an attack. (If she was president, she'd let them all get killed or imprisoned, and claim it was because we offended the Venezulans with Jane The Virgin).
 
Actually if you look at Maduro's election there were loads of things wrong with it

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_inauguration_of_Nicolás_Maduro#Inauguration

The election saw a turnout of 25.8%,[6] as well as arbitrary disqualifications of Maduro's opposition.[7][8] It was also announced by the Constituent Assembly, which should not have had the power to do so.[9] The Constituent Assembly is a body created by Maduro as a substitute for the nation's actual legislative body, the National Assembly, since his party was in a minority.[10] Despite the opposition making up a majority of the government, Maduro does not allow them power, and has said that they need to "leave [him] alone to govern".[11]

The main "illegitimate" contention to the inauguration was primarily based on the unusual election activity. This belief was declared by many countries worldwide. To Maduro being inaugurated, Argentine President Mauricio Macri said in a simple statement that "Venezuela is living under a dictatorship".[12]

Inauguration

Maduro's inauguration took place on 10 January 2019 outside the Supreme Court building in Caracas.[13] Traditionally, it would have happened in front of the Assembly building, an institution he ignores.[11] Critics of Maduro had urged him to not remain as President but he ignored their pleads and by doing so was called a "usurpation" by many.[13][14][15] Maduro was sworn in by Maikel Moreno, President of the Supreme Court, at 3:00pm.[16] Additionally, the Constitution instructs that inaugurations must be conducted with the National Assembly, which this was not.[17]

You can certainly quibble as to whether Guaido's claim to the presidency is valid but given that Maduro decided to ignore the National Assembly and set up a rival body stacked with his cronies and then have his inauguration at the supreme court makes his claim pretty dubious too.

Venezuela is a typical failing communist state. The economy is in ruins and the leader uses that as an excuse to become a dictator, even though the economic chaos is because of his policies.

America is blessed with enemies even stupider than us.

If you wrote an alternate history novel based on our history people would complain that America was given an 'I win button' and all its serious geopolitical competitors were unrealistically dumb.
 
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The economic collapse had nothing to do with the CIA. It was a watershed moment. Oil is 95% of Venezuelan exports and makes up 25% of the Venezuelan GDP. What that means is that 95% of the "hard cash" i.e dollars, yen, and Euros, the things people will actually accept in trade, is oil money. Venezuela was a socialist paradise for a long time because oil prices were massively inflated, and they used literally all of that hard cash to import things to make the lives of their average citizen better. Also, gasoline was HEAVILY subsidized. The average cost of gas in Venezuela was the equivalent of $0.03-$0.05/US gal. Because of the sky high oil prices, US companies decided to research cheaper and more efficient extraction processes, which made oil cheaper to pull out of the ground, and allowed US companies to revisit previously sealed wells to extract billions of barrels of previously unobtainable oil. The US was (and still is) on track to become energy independent within a decade, which spooked OPEC countries in the Middle East. In response, OPEC, specifically Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, decided to out compete the emerging US energy companies with this fancy new technology, by pushing their 100 year old rigs to the absolute limit. Now, American technology is extremely impressive, but unfortunately, the capital required to build these new rigs with this new tech is absurd, and in order for startups to be profitable in the US, oil has to be above roughly $55/bbl, whereas the Saudis are turning a profit at anything above $14/bbl. Now, because of the immense amount of fiscal reliance Venezuela was putting on their oil industry, they NEEDED oil to be above about $70/bbl, otherwise they wouldn't be able to subsidize gasoline, import consumer goods, or pay the salaries of their bloated public sector. So, when the Saudis started selling oil at $20/bbl, oil dropped like a rock, from $111/bbl in June 2014 to $51/bbl in January of 2015. It continued to collapse until it totally bottomed out at $35/bbl in January of 2016. In response the US and Canadian governments heavily subsidized new fracking and shale oil ventures, which prevented many North American companies from closing shop. Basically, we had an oil price war with the Middle East members of OPEC for almost 3 years, in which the US and Canadian governments spent absurd amounts of money to support startup operations. The reason this matters is because the entire time this was going on, Venezuela was essentially selling oil at a loss, but refused to cut back on their socialist programs based on faith that one side would win out and the oil market would rebound, after all, they had stockpiled billions of dollars and euros. Fast forward 2 years and there are absolutely no more dollars or euros in Venezuela, and not a single motherfucker on Earth wants their Bolivars. They cannot find a single creditor on the planet to lend them enough money to support their programs, so they all get axed. No more consumer goods, no more wheat, no more beef, no more corn, no more gas. Now, as proof God exists and has a sense of humor, one of the massive public works projects Chavez was responsible for, was one of the largest hydro plants in the world. Hydro power accounts for ~64% of electricity in Venezuela, Venezuela produces ~2% of the global total of hydro power. Well, right in the middle of the fucking crisis, Venezuela is hit with one of the worst droughts in their history, and it lasts for years. In order to preserve drinking and irrigation water in their reservoirs, Maduro orders the dams shut down. For years Venezuela is rocked by rolling brownouts across the entire country. Some major population centers get power maybe 6 hours a day, if they're lucky. Major oil refineries don't have the power to process crude, so gas goes from being expensive to impossible to find, which paralyzes both national transportation and logistics, as well as one of the only ways for the government to get any cash flow.

Fast forward to today, and you have a country on the brink of literal anarchy.

That’s a great overview. Although there are a few other subtleties in play.

Saudi Arabia is an interesting one to watch carefully. They have the potential to implode in a manner similar to Venezuela. Yes in terms of raw production costs, their wells are profitable at anything above $14/ bbl orso. But like Venezuela they underwrite their entire economy and Social Welfare system on oil money. In order for Saudi Arabia to meet it’s social promises it needs oil prices above $44-48/bbl. Anything below that and they are drawing down their treasury to pay off the populace. Fracking and new extraction methods need $51/bbl to be profitable without subsidies. That’s a very narrow margin. Enough that Fracking etc becomes the better option at the point where the Saudi’s are at break even, once when you factor in the desired NationalEnergy Independence. Asking your nation to pay 3x the cheapest prices to be independent is a hard sell. Asking then to pay an extra 5% to not deal with Venezuela or the Gret Middle Eastern Cat Box is an easy sell.

And the other problem with Venezuela is not simply the drop in oil prices. It is the loss in customers. As the US, Canada and even Mexico have shifted to greater internal production, it means they aren’t buying Venezuela’s output. Back during Chavez’s infamous Brimstone comments to George Bush, the US was still buying up to 30% of Venezuela’s output. Not so much today. And the US is now exporting Natural Gas. Including to many of Venezuela’s prime customers, such as China. It leaves Venezuelan crude as something of a buyers market. Competing customers are no longer driving up the prices. China can write whatever terms it wishes. Plus after years of crazy growth, China’s energy demand appears to have plateaued. It isn’t increasing annually they way it used to. This is very bad news for Venezuela. Unless the rest of South America suddenly kicks off a China style industrial growth spurt the future looks bleak for Venezuelan oil.


Saudi Arabia crashed the oil market to try and kill US and specifically Canadian shale oil production. I know you’re being sarcastic but that’s something the maoists don’t understand or want to believe I guess.

The US has done some shitty stuff in South America but Venezuela, due to Chavez duping idiots and poor people, fucked the country. It wasn’t the US that’s forced Chavez to hire cronies and corrupted the government. People can’t eat in Venezuela, there’s no food available. All the fault of Chavez and then Maduro.

Edit: it’s obscene r/latestagecapitalism is also disregarding the starvation and lack of food staples due to chavez/Maduro policies. So much for that compassion and muh empathy.


All good posts, but you overlook an important event:
The wars in Syria and Yemen.

Said Arabia can Iran are in expensive proxywars there and funding their side with oil bux, meaning they can't shut down production. Hurting fracking has just been a bonus side effect.

Venezuela's oil is also high-sulfer shit teir bunker oil, and is a bitch to refine. The US has some of the only refineries that can handle it.

Also Venezuela had been effectively barred from using the global credit system because of hyperinflation. This means they have to do all international deals in hard cash - that is, 747s loaded with us dollars.
 
I love how people in current year feel that we need to come with all sorts of legal and moral reasons for justifying ending all the hand wringing and actually doing something.

Venezuelan government has turned their country into a blight on the region and a destabilizing element. They are also openly consorting with our strategic rivals. So they got to go.
 
I love how people in current year feel that we need to come with all sorts of legal and moral reasons for justifying ending all the hand wringing and actually doing something.

Honestly the US doesn't. As John Harrington - a distant relative of Kit of Game of Thrones fame - observed

Treason doth never prosper. What's the reason?
For if it prosper, none dare call it "treason."

I.e. if you overthrow a government and it succeeds no one can say the overthrow was illegitimate. It's only the unsuccessful overthrows that are called treason.

And it's the same with regime change. If this one succeeds, no one is going to worry too much about the legality of it because it will be retroactively granted by the new regime.

Maduro's regime is very wobbly, the National Assembly have declared it over and it's a good time to give it one last kick by recognising that opposition diplomatically in the hope it falls.

I just hope the US can avoid getting too tied down there that it makes Russia, China etc think that now would be a good time to start some shit somewhere else.
 
What would happen if say someone flew a plane into Venezuela and drop a crate full of guns into the protests?
 
So the Turkish Billionaire Turgay Ciner flew over there.
https://twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/1088430728629628929

There's a reason.
Tons of Venezuelan gold...are shipped to Turkey for refinement and processing.
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east...vent-support-for-venezuela-s-maduro-1.6872338

Also
Billionaire Turgay Ciner interested also in oil exploitation. Works with Erdogan.
http://www.cinergroup.com.tr/en/news/haber/1816248-erdogan-we-have-no-oil-but-we-have-intelligence
Ciner Group’s huge investment Kazan Soda Elektrik Üretim A.Ş. Plants were commissioned by President Erdogan yesterday. The ceremony was attended by Ciner Group President Turgay Ciner, along with ministers, prominent figures from business world and citizens.

The opening ceremony hosted by Ciner Group President Turgay Ciner was attended by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Berat Albayrak, the Minister of Labor and Social Security, Jülide Sarıeroğlu, Ankara Mayor Ercan Topaca, Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mustafa Tuna, Kahramankazan Mayor Ergin Aksakal, Sincan Governor Abdullah Küçük, Kahramankazan Mayor Lokman Ertürk, Sincan Mayor Murat Ercan, Beypazarı Mayor Tuncer Kaplan, the President of the Board of Directors of Ciner Media, M. Kenan Tekdag, Yu Hongyang, Liu Jiaglang, Yuan Zuemin, Liu Shiqia, and Ciner Group Representatives and Ciner Media executives.

 
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What would happen if say someone flew a plane into Venezuela and drop a crate full of guns into the protests?
"-Oopsie! hey Bolsonaro, I dunno what happened but I think I've misplaced an AC-130 with ammo, guns and a SEAL squad near the Venezuela border! mayhaps your BOPE guys could be of assistance...?"

 
So the Turkish Billionaire Turgay Ciner flew over there.
https://twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/1088430728629628929

There's a reason.

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east...vent-support-for-venezuela-s-maduro-1.6872338

Also

http://www.cinergroup.com.tr/en/news/haber/1816248-erdogan-we-have-no-oil-but-we-have-intelligence

Erdogan is literally using Turkish Military Intelligence because his friends want Gold and Oil.
So the big reason why Turkey is making such a big deal about this is because Erdogan is essentially a slightly more successful Maduro yet runs the country with the same amount of legitimacy

And they think that if Maduro goes down, Erdogan may be next

Sweet Jesus Fuck, I hope so
 
Plenty of image macros and memes floating around Facebook. This one is from a libertarian (she's been fairly center-right lately) chick called Gloria Álvarez.

UtaOgyZ.jpg


"For the hypocrite socialist,

This is a freedom hero

But this one is a dictator son of a bitch?"

https://www.facebook.com/GloriaAlvarez/photos/a.723798320969661/2511532392196236/
This is incredibly reminiscent of that time the Soviet forces rose their flag over the Reichstag during the Battle of Berlin. They used the picture of the raising as a propaganda picture, but they had to edit the picture since one of the soldiers had watches on both arms which hinted to him and other Soviet soldiers looting German stores
Red_army_soldiers_raising_the_soviet_flag_on_the_roof_of_the_reichstag_with_two_Watchs.jpg
Red_army_soldiers_raising_the_soviet_flag_on_the_roof_of_the_reichstag_with_no_Watch.jpg


So then that just goes to show that between that and Venezuela, even with the cape of Liberators on them, the commie is still a thief at his base form. Whoda fuckin thunk it
 
I love how people in current year feel that we need to come with all sorts of legal and moral reasons for justifying ending all the hand wringing and actually doing something.

Venezuelan government has turned their country into a blight on the region and a destabilizing element. They are also openly consorting with our strategic rivals. So they got to go.
And yet the same hand wringing faggots will say we should have gotten into Rwanda earlier.
 
This is incredibly reminiscent of that time the Soviet forces rose their flag over the Reichstag during the Battle of Berlin. They used the picture of the raising as a propaganda picture, but they had to edit the picture since one of the soldiers had watches on both arms which hinted to him and other Soviet soldiers looting German stores
View attachment 648182 View attachment 648184

So then that just goes to show that between that and Venezuela, even with the cape of Liberators on them, the commie is still a thief at his base form. Whoda fuckin thunk it

I hate commies immensely, but that was at the very end of a conflict wherein Germans literally waged a war to exterminate the Russian people. 1/3 of Russian prisoners of war were murdered before they even made it to a camp. Nazis wiped out whole cities as a matter of course. Hitler fought the Russians in a way that went beyond fighting Bolshevism and was more akin to an attempted genocide. He refused surrenders from Leningrad because he wanted the whole city to die. Up to 10 million Russians were killed - not casualties, actual deaths - in that war, double that of the Germans. If you eliminate every other theater of war except the Eastern Front it's still the most devastating war in human history.

The rape and looting of Berlin was a tragedy but let's not act like it is a uniquely Communist thing to loot and pillage the capital of the country that inflicted that upon you in a surprise attack after your government tried to appease them for years. It's sadly, extremely human. Things like Stalin's Dachau on the Black Sea is more emblematic of commie hypocrisy than a soldier looting Berlin.

(Sorry, I might be going through Hardcore History's series on the eastern front)
 
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