If they attack California, the west coast, I have a feeling they might attack the Golden Gate Bridge. Hasn’t it been like almost 2 years since the Francis Scott key bridge collasped? Very impactful. Tulsi Gabbard a while back posted a video on her twitter of the Golden Gate Bridge blowing up…Super Bowl had the bridge in the logo. Could happen maybe around the 20th-30th? Idk I hope not and pray I’m schizo!
you have to understand that religious fundamentalists are fucking crazy, they have zero fear of dying for the jihad or some shit, and are willing to hide in fuckall nowhere in squalid conditions for decades, which is why we could never properly beat the taliban.
They were also in Pakistan and had the INI's support for the better part of two decades and the government and army we were trying to prop up simply couldn't convert a premodern tribal people into a modern national people. It's an underestimated factor by a lot of people since nationalism is in the air we breathe, but it is a novel, modern, contemporary idea that in lots of the developed world is barely 150 years old, and it has hardly taken root in most of the undeveloped world. People see themselves as being addressed by a tribal designation, with loyalties there and at most to a larger clan or ethnic group. The dissolution of old identities that was replaced by the big glue of nationalism required extensive dislocation from the development of industry, and preexisting institutions that could suppress some languages and centralize others. Lots of the 19th century and 20th century had national movements that would be considered borderline genocidal today, since unifying diverse peoples under a language and a loose, broad history creates a nation.
What the fuck are people smoking seriously? What imaginary past model of warfare are they thinking exists? This is like late stage RTS gameplay where one faction has the tech tree completed and is fielding its wonder which is a floating death cannon, and the other team is like "well if I survive this, I'll just rebuild all the buildings currently being destroyed in my base with the engineer units that automatically spawn in when I'm out of units."
The kind of thinking you're pointing at is explained best in my opinion by what Robert Pape (Mearsheimer's fat, ugly shitlib student) calls the smart bomb trap. His basic arguments are things you'll see repeated ad nauseam in the coming weeks and months by the BRICS and the turd worldist received wisdom types. He's a prominent natsec thunker on the news quite often and a frequent social media intellectual. He's a real thinker on the topic, a peer with Condi Rice and Barry Posen.
This fat cunt posts on LinkedIn basically every day, he's on Xitter a lot. As a student of his I can tell you that Pape is a mediocre and somewhat lazy teacher focused on making his grad and PhD students compete for attention and funneling his talented undergrad students into data entry for his gay terrorism observatory project CPOST. Intellectually he's a lightweight with limited contributions to a field that is somewhat necessarily lacking in rigor. He's talented at the modern game of scholarship, and his fake 'aw schucks' Midwestern demeanor is well-practiced and charms the tards of this particular world. He's good at grabbing funding because of his successful pivot to suicide terror from strategic bombing after 9/11, plus his old DoD connections from the neocon-reformed neocon era. Cutting the Fuse, a book of his, was a major inspiration for the Obama era natsec strategy--drone strikes, cash payments to terrorists to put a lid on the problem, rapprochement with Iran, etc..
Pape's theory on smart bombs is an evolution of the neorealist idea of Mearsheimer's that wars are fundamentally only conventional, if you want to impose unacceptable terms on a people, you must invade with tanks and millions of your sons, and that this kind of bombing is best understood as an aggro retard style of negotiation. It's fundamentally not super compatible with the evolving doctrine of the United States. But to get to the point: basically smart bombs trick you into thinking decapitation strikes change behavior of successor regimes. You achieve initial successes and hit diminishing returns by day 2 since you can't enforce your will directly. The benefits are low compared to the longer term benefits of an invasion. If an invasion isn't workable, you've got no leverage. If you don't directly undermine the regime's ability to continue its strategy while signaling that you want negotiations to continue in all fora possible, you won't succeed in this style of negotiation. I think this is wrong and foolish.
Here's the smart bomb trap argument. Smart bombs give you easy wins initially and no long-term strategic wins. What kills regimes is a mass of people saying 'no more' backed by an alliance of economic/political/military/religious elites who feel disenfranchised by the regime, some group that wishes to ride the wave praetorian style. Unless a successor state that owes you big time emerges, contests, and steps into the breach following a coup, you won't get very far in modulating state behavior by clearing the stage for a replacement. You can't kill your way into getting people to create a constitution and create institutions or agree with you. You can kill your way into the process of replacement succeeding. You can kill your way into a hostile military strategy failing. You cannot kill your way into state replacement or behavior change. The incumbent elites won't accept a change in course, be they military, political, religious/ideological, or economic. Of course, this is based on the idea that you cannot simply target all four pillars of a society simultaneously and selectively based on your knowledge of everything they ever wrote and said, and not care much about the replacement, since you will necessarily retain a veto via Hellfire missile on successors.
Here's why he thinks that: Pape's idea of bombing is that bombing can't dissuade a regime from existing but can dissuade them from a course of action if you strike their sites of production and concentrations of forces preemptively. Regimes believe they can win and don't care about costs. So to make them stop, make it impossible for them to win. The signal example he cites in Bombing to Win is Vietnam, the difference in effect between Rolling Thunder (LBJ era bombing against North Vietnam, indiscriminate, did little to slow down the commies or the VC) and Linebacker ("targeted" bombing under Nixon that delayed NVA conquest of South Vietnam by destroying conventional arms production and enabling the Paris Accords which ended formal US involvement in the war). Couldn't get them to give up on guerilla warfare by killing villagers and fucking up the jungle and killing lots of VC. Could get them to stop a ground invasion of South Vietnam by blowing up the tanks and factories. This argument has a lot of problems and factors he's ignoring to set up a plausible sounding 'equation' where Risk of a Strategy = Benefits from Winning * Probability of Benefits - Costs of Defiance * Probability of Costs. As you can see this is facially simpleminded but it points to a robust and facially true idea--regimes and their leaders think they can win, they are cost tolerant, you have to make them think they can't win, you won't necessarily achieve this by destroying or weakening the regime, but you can do this by weakening their military capacities, but it necessarily can't work on certain types of foes. Even in the event of decapitation, death of #1 is a cost #2 is willing to bear. Might work on East Asian Communists, might not work on religious Muslims or the inbred turd world brainlets of West and Central Asia. You'd have to get to like #10 before #11 notices the pattern.
I think he's wrong because he's visibly a timid coward, he's a Democrat with TDS, and visibly unhealthy and slothlike. Fat people are frequently wrong, often because they are fat. As a teacher, he likes namedropping more than ideadropping. He gets super sweaty talking in an air conditioned room for an hour. He is paranoid about his reputation and standing as a strategist of note in an institution that produced and gave tenure mostly to firstt-raters and settled for him because he worked at a war college and was the student of a first-rater. He stands in the shadow of a greater, smarter man, Mearsheimer (who is still likely an asset of Russian or Chinese intelligence) just like the retired military whose podcasts they both hop on to doomsay any rational, muscular foreign policy. He also lacks real, relevant data to back up his observations from decades ago. Modern smart bombing is qualitatively better, SIGINT is qualitatively much better than in 91, assassination and decapitation are more viable, all the way down the chain of command. He's also accused of what amounts to misrepresenting his data on the First Gulf War. Pape's preferred strategy for dealing with terror is to buy the terrorists off, which is outlined in his retarded book Cutting the Fuse. This didn't work out for Rome and arguing it worked in Iraq is to accept a moronic time horizon. Making retards like Germans or Arabs rich only impoverishes the world by making retards rich and strong in the long run.
The US and Israel didn't kill Ahmadinejad, they ended up freeing him from house arrest and he's presumably gone into hiding. May have been a jailbreak operation:
not to detract from nooneever being delusional because he is, but Our oil reserves are also not completely full at the moment as we dipped into them at the start of the Ukraine conflict as well and have not "restocked" since that time.
Truth be told it's smart to be prudent with dipping into them further like with Trumps statement, usually the statement alone is enough to sway market prices so there's no reason to dip deeply into the reserves, just announce small amounts to keep the market price under control.
I hate how much of a scare campaign there is about possible rocket attackd, twice this week I had a call from my mother saying there is going to be a massive attack (that for some reason didn't happen earlier during the war) and maybe I should go to my parent's house.
It's just bullshit that is more likely to be idiots running their mouths than actual demoralisation campaign.
Chevron and another oil company I forgot are expanding their operations in Venezuela and Guyana which will increase production substantially over the next year. Unless someone nukes the oil fields of the Arabian Peninsula we won't be seeing oil go over $100/barrel again even if we don't get control of Iran's oil.
Tbf, barring the gulf states(except for Saudi Arabia) Iran might as well have been a paradise compared to the rest of the mid east. even the limited rights they did have was earned by blood. Unlike the gulf mudslime women who live lavish materialistic lives so they never cared about women's rights unlike your average iranian women who was likely born into poverty or in a working class family. Even if they wanted a taste of women's rights(read just wanna get railed because again lol at them caring about it.) they would just travel to the west to act like complete hoes and get railed by a white train 24/7 before going to mecca and conveniently begging for forgiveness from Allah. I do feel bad for saudi women even if they revel in their suffering.
@Imam Shamil since you're a dirty mudslime weeb shia imam. Did you meet imam peak? Usually see westoids chant his name in reference to a piece of media being PEAK!
Genuinely why does everyone put so much faith on the exiled prince? to me he is more of an average guy talking about supporting the Iranian people and how Iran used to have jews until the muzzies came and nothing else on the situation or its potential global relationship.
Even im starting to think hes just a figurehead for the revolution. I believe there's probably someone else better than him that can do the job well enough. Heard that the view of the diaspora in iran is a bit of mixed bag but not by much. I assume its likely just sperging over them being spergy retards (both to the pro regime and the anti regime types). Overall i wish we all can put our differences behind and rebuild iran from rubble.
Or a native that ends up being a military dictator. though i do believe that if done right, we could have someone like Pinochet , a western backed dictator that develops the country and thus ends up becoming well loved by the populace barring the retarded leftists that still remain in iran or the islamists that hopefully will make them wish it was the shah's SAVAK torturing them.
You do realize the protests over the government being shit and corrupt is something that has been happening for decades right? What do you think the 2009 protests were for? Hell even the IRGC initially wasn't as brainwashed until the clerics noticed that the populace and even the less insane parts of the IRGC constantly voted for the reformists. Which in turn led to them making the IRGC into even more of a cult and expanding their influence across the country.
Hell id argue the mahsa protests were the BLM style protests for iran since again, it was about a woman who was murdered for not wearing a trashbag over her head (and unlike saint floyd of fent, she was an innocent girl who legitimately dindu nuffin).
even then it was mostly a political win in that they achieved their political goals. If the US didn't stop the Israelis from killing the encircled Third Army, egypt would have been done for
The Saudi Al-Hadath news outlet, citing an Israeli source, claims that the Americans might join in on the strikes on Hezbollah's infrastructure in northern Lebanon (Beqa'a & Ba'albek)
If they attack California, the west coast, I have a feeling they might attack the Golden Gate Bridge. Hasn’t it been like almost 2 years since the Francis Scott key bridge collasped? Very impactful. Tulsi Gabbard a while back posted a video on her twitter of the Golden Gate Bridge blowing up…Super Bowl had the bridge in the logo. Could happen maybe around the 20th-30th? Idk I hope not and pray I’m schizo!
Gave you a clock because I already posted this yesterday, however I will say that your post reminds me this might actually be authentic since I've seen no serious refutation (either by the Islamist gov't directly or by their shills online) 24 hours later. In any case we'll probably get to see what, if anything, these Arab tribesmen are capable of soon enough - that Israel blew up the IRGC bank and have gone beyond just blowing up bases to drone-striking their security checkpoints in Tehran would suggest they're shifting from SEAD and destroying missile launchers/stockpiles to more aggressively trying to shape the ground for regime change to be done by Iranian protestors/revolutionaries on the ground, in cooperation with Iranian royalist opposition who as I also posted earlier, were directly accused by IRGC media channels of helping the Jews take out said checkpoints for the first time today.
We're coming up on the 2-week mark of what has been said to be a 4-6 week operation, so my own guess is that Pahlavi (supported by Trump & Netanyahu) will finally issue his call to arms sometime toward the end of this month. Possibly but not necessarily as early as next Friday (March 20 - Nowruz, the Persian New Year). He was telling people to gather emergency provisions but also to stay safe & remain patient today, after all. In any case it seems we might soon get to see what the Iranian opposition, these tribes included, are really capable of.
