Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

[Ghostse]

I wouldn't put it past Israel to completely obliterate all remaining power stations, water supplies, and transportation infrastructure and just let the country devolve into civil war as everyone tries to avoid dying from thirst.

While Israel is likely to hit those things, mostly what they'll hit is Iran's oil infra. Wells, Refineries, oil transfer infrastructure. These will stop Iran's ability to make more drones/missiles and will doom the regime to poverty.
I don't think they'll hit water infrastructure.

Devils advocate here, what evidence do we have that the rebellious part of the population is organized enough to make this work? A few tents being lit on fire and people cheering from their apartment blocks? The people willing to go into the streets were gunned down a couple months ago.

Im not trying to argue and shit up the thread, genuinely interested in evidence.

Solid evidence? Scant. The best solid evidence is that the US admitted they smuggled 6,000 starlink terminal into the country recently.
The people are still protesting, still turning out, still calling for the Shah's return every night despite the crack downs. If they are not organized, they are dedicated.

Tin Foil hat evidence:

Spoiler: get out them corkboards, push pins, and red thread boyos

The US has a CSG parked in the red sea dealing with the Houthis all summer. per the finest schizo wonking, this was in part used as cover to insert US intelligence operatives, US Green Berets, and equipment into Iran with the US/Jews seeing promising signs from the opposition after Mossad killed an IRGC general & some nuke scientists in Tehran, and after Midnight hammer. (also to test Iran's anti-ship capabilities via their proxies but that's getting sidetracked)

Green Berets, for the uninformed, are US special forces who are specifically trained to work with indigenous forces and to teach those organizations how to be an organized-ish opposition.

Given how resilient the Iranian opposition was to government crack downs (neither internet cut off, nor the government using live ammo on them seem to break them) it is speculated and almost certain they have green berets instructing them on how to run their communications. It is also very likely there is training being done for some more kinectic actions against the regime. Taking out police/secret police will allow for more flexibility there.

or to tl;dr: the protestors are very resilentant inspite of government crackdowns. Even if they are split into a bunch of factions, there is some level of coordination. somone got everyone united behind the shah. someone got everyone on the same page. And since there isn't some opposition figure head in the country.....

But, as I lamented before this kicked off, there isn't a lot of united resistance.

No matter our differences, if it gets us kino nuke footage we can all be respectfully bipartisan.

This but unironically.

Because I was talking about the war? And the other half of his statement referred to things post-war?

Bro, are you really being serious right now? That is some hard core attempts to remove context from a quote. lol. You got a journalism degree or something?

 

[HodgePodgeRogerDodger]

Feels pretty fucking fractured if they are just now mining the strait. That would have been something you did while trying to hammer bases or if you still had jets to scramble so the US wouldn’t just delete Iranian boats from existence.

Also my guess is that they likely are planning an insurgency at the end of Ramadan. Ramadan effectively gives any insurgents cover to meet after dark and pool resources. You can act defiant against the Americans and perfidious Jews! While in actuality just doing insurgent shit against the regime. Eid is happening after next Friday which is my bet for when we’ll see a rising.

 

[Al from Dadeville]

I'm sure they have a backup generator for his life support though, right?

I have no confidence that they have maintained generators and backup power supplies, plus he’s probably on a third-world ventilator that runs with oxygen or (more likely) air as a drive gas and no power supply, but those fuck up if their air compressor goes down or the quality of air gets bad - like if there’s humidity or particulates.

I thought the cardboard cutout video was just a good AI meme. That was real?

 

[ThisIsGonnaBeGood]

Rise up with what you fucking dunce? They're unarmed. Yeah maybe this would make sense if there were plans in motion to start air dropping weapons to them like we did in Libya but unless that's the case why the fuck would they go out and try doing a riot again if they know the government is just gonna mow them down in the street Tiananmen style. This is Q-tier retardation at its finest.

lol calm down

 

[lurker7274519]

Just yesterday in the thread someone posted an alleged statement from an IRGC defector saying that he was the last from his unit to quit, that gunning down all those civilians had cratered morale among the regime's troops and most were only sticking around because desertion is punished with death, and that the targeted bombings and subsequent headless behavior from the regime has convinced a lot of them to risk that penalty.

Don't expect public defections, at best soldiers will abandon their guns in places where protesters can pick them and flee back home. Anyone expecting loyalty from the grunts of a totalitarian regime is nuts. The mental profile of the people who join the military in these kind of regimes, is the lowest of the low, cowards who don't even have the balls to kill, because if they had them, they would be promoted to the dissent killing squads. I am 100% sure that Iran must have its special protester killing squads designated to reduce the amount of grunts having to be used to massacre civilians.

Guns are not even the problem, the important thing is to be able to push the ball hard enough to put the country beyond protests, and directly into civil war, total death mode. Once that happens, cops will have to start wearing neck guards to not get their throat slit open by some drunk teen.

 

[Boney]

It's "STRAIT", you dumb fuck. We've been over this many times before in this thread.

Least you gave it to me strait. I hate weighting to sea if you guise wood let something lyke that gough.

 

[Schwarzwald]

The Iranians swore loyalty to a cardboard cutout of the new Ayatollah. It wasn't even a good cardboard cutout. It was really bad.

So bad that I can't believe they did it.
View attachment 8685582
This does not project a winning spirit.

This thing looks like it's from a South Park episode in the 90s. It's also like 10' tall for some reason.

Iran's usual set designer must have been Hellfire'd or thrown from a building for being gay or something.

 

[BacklTrack]

This is all hearsay, but the messaging I've seen from Iranians who have contacts still in the country is that once the all-clear is given, tens of thousands would be willing to to rise up against the government. I've seen a few optimistic voices say a million people, but I'd call that exaggerated at the moment.

You mean mossad agents pretending to be Iranians? Lol

 

[BigJoey41X]

Rise up with what you fucking dunce? They're unarmed. Yeah maybe this would make sense if there were plans in motion to start air dropping weapons to them like we did in Libya but unless that's the case why the fuck would they go out and try doing a riot again if they know the government is just gonna mow them down in the street Tiananmen style. This is Q-tier retardation at its finest.

tyrannical and heavily armed governments very rarely fall because of a united popular civilian revolt, especially for a government who has remained in power for this long, its usually due to internal or external ARMED forces destabilizing the established power of the country.

IRGC also has massive control of the economy through what is effectively state-run companies for massive sums of wealth, these guys will choose death over losing their long grip on power and wealth.

 

[Snekposter]

its usually due to internal or external ARMED forces destabilizing the established power of the country.

Like uh, I don't know... taking out two Supreme Leaders in as many weeks, a third and current one legless and on life support somewhere, and the US Air Force running out of military targets to the point we're bombing police stations? Seems pretty destabilized to me.

 

[lurker7274519]

tyrannical and heavily armed governments very rarely fall because of a united popular civilian revolt, especially for a government who has remained in power for this long, its usually due to internal or external ARMED forces destabilizing the established power of the country.

Yeah, that is why the US is bombing them , protesters will serve as another way to add to the pressure, and increase the chances of an Iranian Delcy rodrigez appearing, and bowing to the US.

 

[Useful_Mistake]

Bro, are you really being serious right now? That is some hard core attempts to remove context from a quote. lol. You got a journalism degree or something?

I was the person who posted that article here in the first place, with a screenshot featuring the full quote.

 

[namvata]

tyrannical and heavily armed governments very rarely fall because of a united popular civilian revolt, especially for a government who has remained in power for this long, its usually due to internal or external ARMED forces destabilizing the established power of the country.

It's because of both. You can't just get a regime change without either some sort of uprising on the ground or being willing to send the troops in there to do it yourself. The idea that we're just gonna bomb them to regime change and then the unarmed Iranian masses are gonna do a stalingrad style human wave charge at all of their state institutions to overthrow the islamic republic is wishful thinking at best.

IRGC also has massive control of the economy through what is effectively state-run companies for massive sums of wealth, these guys will choose death over losing their long grip on power and wealth.

Yeah, that's why the idea that you're just gonna bomb them until they say uncle is dumb, you can't get unconditional surrender from religious zealots who aspire to martyrdom. You have to kill them all and you're not gonna be able to do that unless you have boots on the ground, in fact you're not gonna be able to do that period because it's logistically impossible. Even if the government somehow got overthrown as a result of the air campaign alone, you're gonna have to send personnel in after the fact to make sure that post-war reconstruction goes well and Iran doesn't turn into a failed state, and you're gonna have to prevent retaliatory attacks from regime loyalists.

Any way you cut it there's no successful regime change in Iran without boots on the ground, be it to make it happen to begin with, or to engage in reconstruction after the fact (you know, nation building).

 

[Ghostse]

tyrannical and heavily armed governments very rarely fall because of a united popular civilian revolt, especially for a government who has remained in power for this long, its usually due to internal or external ARMED forces destabilizing the established power of the country.

There is the IRGC and there are the regular Iranian army. the Regular Iranian army doesn't much like the IRGC but they have been repeatedly purged for anyone "disloyal", have crappy equipment and are in the constant IRGC cuckchair. IRGC bases and units have been getting utterly rocked everywhere, the Kosher Burger alliance has been more selective hitting regular army.
Supposed the Regular Army units getting bombed are hardliners, the units not getting 500lb injections of freedom are the ones deemed likely to flip against the regime.

Arabs are notoriously shit at war so we'll see.

IRGC also has massive control of the economy through what is effectively state-run companies for massive sums of wealth, these guys will choose death over losing their long grip on power and wealth.

Correct.
Interesting wonk I saw.
The IRGC pushed for Ayatollah Jr's selection, and may have done so because its unlikely a hospital will e bombed, but more importantly unconscious men in comas cannot give the order to surrender no matter how bad things get.

And BRICSfags like to babble about how, if Khamenei Jr. is in fact still alive & conscious, he must have a personal vendetta against the West for decimating his family which will motivate him to fight to the end; well how the fuck do they think the loved ones of the 7,000-40,000 January victims (keep in mind that lowest confirmed number is still over 3x the number of people the CCP killed at Tiananmen) feel about the butcher of their friends & relatives?? Of course shit can still go sideways, but I firmly believe it's groundless demoralization & retarded Mullah simping to believe any renewed attempt at regime change from within is doomed to fail when 1) Iranians have already proven their willingness to go into the streets at high risk of death before in huge numbers and 2) they haven't even tried yet this time around because they've been explicitly told to wait for a signal from their chosen figurehead + Trump/Netanyahu.

Remember how we kept getting told during GWOT how every terrorist we kill makes 500 more terrorists? For some reason that logic never applies to when Islamic governments kill their own people its funny how that works.

This thing looks like it's from a South Park episode in the 90s. It's also like 10' tall for some reason.

tl;dr: its retarded arab size fetish. Cardatollah is huge and thus powerful.

 

[pooterino]

Iran desperately strikes out at cargo ships while there ayotallah is legless and comatose in a hospital. Xi sits back in the cuck chair watching in despair and thinks why are we allied with these sand niggers

 

[Dammit Mandrake!]

tyrannical and heavily armed governments very rarely fall because of a united popular civilian revolt, especially for a government who has remained in power for this long, its usually due to internal or external ARMED forces destabilizing the established power of the country.

IRGC also has massive control of the economy through what is effectively state-run companies for massive sums of wealth, these guys will choose death over losing their long grip on power and wealth.

People forget that the former Ayatollah was basically Iran's largest shipping magnate.

 

[XYZpdq Jr.]

ngl I kinda want to make a cardboard ayatollah to go with the cardboard trump and reagan

 

[BigJoey41X]

Remember how we kept getting told during GWOT how every terrorist we kill makes 500 more terrorists? For some reason that logic never applies to when Islamic governments kill their own people its funny how that works.

you have to understand that religious fundamentalists are fucking crazy, they have zero fear of dying for the jihad or some shit, and are willing to hide in fuckall nowhere in squalid conditions for decades, which is why we could never properly beat the taliban.

the people being killed by the government are just normal people who can be suppressed into submission.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

That's not the half of it; I've seen NAFO idiots post clips of Ukrainians holding AT4 and declare it a Javelin. Damn thing has more in common with a PIAT spigot mortar.

I was gonna say this but all the vatniks sharing pictures of a Mexican cartel goon with a looted AT4 claiming it was a Javelin from Ukraine.

How much longer do you guys think it'll go on?

6 months, tops.

I'll change my pfp to the B1 being a zogbot if Iran is still shooting ballistic missiles in 6 months.

Hes probably not dead but a vegetable with no legs. Theyre desperate thats the signals they're sending right now.

I see him more as an empty figurehead.

Rather than an actual shot-caller who might be perceived as an IRGC coup or a civilian gov step-up, it's just a way of showing "NO WE WONT BACK DOWN!!!" by appointing an amputee in a coma as Supreme Leader.

Waaa waaaa every manifestation of dissent towards retarded 3rd world dictators is ZOG colour revolution bohoo.

 

[namvata]

Remember how we kept getting told during GWOT how every terrorist we kill makes 500 more terrorists? For some reason that logic never applies to when Islamic governments kill their own people its funny how that works.

Because those people are largely secular and the terrorists we were killing during the GWOT were islamist maniacs who aspired to die fighting holy war against the kuffar.

you have to understand that religious fundamentalists are fucking crazy, they have zero fear of dying for the jihad or some shit, and are willing to hide in fuckall nowhere in squalid conditions for decades, which is why we could never properly beat the taliban.

you can also apply this formula to Syria as well. The secular Assad regime was fighting against jihadists who were willing to keep fighting, keep dying, and bide their time until they saw a major weak spot in the regime's defenses and overthrew it in under 2 weeks. Also those people were, again, already armed and had an active rebellion against the government. No such thing exists in Iran as of now aside from separatist insurgents in Balochistan.