Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

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SaidNoOneEver said:
So no unconditional surrender? I was told unconditional surrender.
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Trump also said that in 2025, and Trump says blowhard shit before.

Hegseth basically said:
1) destroy their ballistic missile production, stockpiles and launchers
2) destroy their navy (and presumably by extension the IRGCN, which is technically separate from the de-jure Irainain navy)
3) destroy what's left of their nuclear program

Of the three the only one that seems yet-to-be-seen is #3, with maybe maybe maybe #2 holding on longer than expected.
SaidNoOneEver said:
If the regime survives the average person in the region will see them to be equal or even stronger than the US. In that "weakened" state Iran will then be more powerful than they have ever been.
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If I get into a fight with a bigger dude and he breaks my arms, gives me two black eyes, kicks out all my teeth and leaves me confined to a wheelchair while all I can do is give him a minor stubbed toe while throwing rocks at bystanders then everyone on the block will think that we are truly equals because at least he didn't kill me.

Kyria the Great said:
Honest question, has any Islamic nation or power ever actually won a modern conflict that doesn't end in a ceasefire?
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Azerbaijan trounced Armenia pretty hard in Ngorno-Khabarak or however the fuck you spell it.
 
Catch The Rainbow said:
No. Egypt technically "won" the 73 war but they weren't Muslim and the ceasefire was signed right before Israel was about to destroy their third army.
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I think the kings of shit warfare has to be Pakistan, they haven't won any major conflict even if they commit full atrocities like in Bangladesh. Never won a war, but never lost an election is the Motto of the Paki army.
 
@Mr. Racewar1488 already reported on most of these but I'd like to do a summary + add some footage from Beirut.

Over 100 missiles were launched towards northern Israel by Hezbollah in the beginning of the operation they titled "Operation Devoured Chaff / Windstorm". This was known to the Israeli government the entire day and the information about it had leaked to Israeli media, which was blocked from reporting on it after bringing it to the Israeli censor beforehand. They were only allowed to publish it after CNN said the same thing. The barrage had only managed to hit Muslim areas and 2 people are lightly injured, towns warned their citizens 2 hours prior to stay near their shelters, expecting this to happen.

A senior official told ynet Wednesday evening: "We are on the eve of opening a broad campaign in Lebanon. We will call up reservists."

The official added: "We knew in advance of their intention to fire a larger volume tonight. There is now a security discussion underway, and the campaign in Lebanon is set to expand significantly. Hezbollah, in its view, wants to divert our attention from Iran and believes that if it pulls us in deeper, we will ease off the campaign against Iran. It wants to create a new equation under which Israeli enforcement policy in Lebanon stops and we do not strike at all. That will not happen. So this entire event is heading toward a serious escalation."

At the same time, Israel sent an explicit threat to Lebanon through Western countries and the United States. According to the message conveyed to Beirut: "If you do not restrain Hezbollah, we will attack national infrastructure. The responsibility lies with the State of Lebanon."

Footage of Israeli strikes on Beirut following a statement by former IDF Arabic spokesperson Avichay Adraee (which is now doing this for the love of the game it seems, or he's taken his job back from Ella Waweya for one last war) telling the residents of the southern suburbs "Following the serious crimes committed by the terrorist Hezbollah, the Defense Army will soon act with great force against its facilities, interests, and combat means.":

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BigJoey41X said:
Well, the Taliban outlasted US presence in Afghanistan.
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US has the means to bomb Afghanistan out of existence. It's just that there's no point. What truly failed is nation building, because you can't impose civilization on people insisting on living in middle ages.
America could've stayed and kept wasting money fucking around. Leaving was ultimately a deliberate choice, even if Biden admin completely fumbled its execution in the most embarrassing and tragic manner.
For US, success is defined by political will. Whatever it is, they'll find a way to do it if needed. It's just that nowadays their priorities are all over the place.
 
Kyria the Great said:
Honest question, has any Islamic nation or power ever actually won a modern conflict that doesn't end in a ceasefire?
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If you take 76 Cyprus war, but then Turkey was hardcore secular (good old days) and operated solely on Western doctrines, and technically won even under embargo and threats...so halfsies?
 
Catch The Rainbow said:
No. Egypt technically "won" the 73 war but they weren't Muslim and the ceasefire was signed right before Israel was about to destroy their third army.
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I remember reading in the excellent book Armies of Sand (which is about why Arab armies fail) the only reason they technically won was because they trained for literal years, every single aspect of their invasion of the Sinai. The moment they had to start going on their own and not obeying the plan set out by their commanders the Egyptian army began to fall apart. Also, the Israeli forces there were not as large and were completely taken aback when the strike came on Yom Kippur.
TLDR, the only way an Arab army ever wins is if everything goes to plan and you teach every soldier relentlessly what place they’re supposed to serve in it… which goes a long way to explain why they’re so fucking terrible at it.
 
RA-5C Vigilante said:
I remember reading in the excellent book Armies of Sand (which is about why Arab armies fail) the only reason they technically won was because they trained for literal years, every single aspect of their invasion of the Sinai. The moment they had to start going on their own and not obeying the plan set out by their commanders the Egyptian army began to fall apart. Also, the Israeli forces there were not as large and were completely taken aback when the strike came on Yom Kippur.
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even then it was mostly a political win in that they achieved their political goals. If the US didn't stop the Israelis from killing the encircled Third Army, egypt would have been done for
 
So, check this out.

This story dropped right? (its already archived by others here)


And the lead is basically - Back in early February, we caught wind that Iran was going to Attack with drones.


That would put that intel at the EXACT same timeframe as this little oddity event that happened:


Remember when they shut down the airspace in El Paso to shoot a "Drone" down with (probably) an AA laser that totally turned out to just be a party balloon, guys?

What a weird coincidence. Would be wild if that was them testing the defense system in response to that threat they perceived literally the same fucking week...
 
ToEnsureVerification said:
There's still an escalation ladder. They'll probably throw a few mines, tell every journalist and show photos, and watch the market move. We'll see how it plays and how resilient global markets are to that, nobody knows tbqh. Could work for Iran or not.
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Called it. Reuters reported that Iran only dropped a dozen naval mines in the Hormuz. So this is was a "performative" mining. As for oil the markets, they seem okay. I think they are still predicting a quick end to the war so the price hasn't spiked.

Just FYI to keep it real, Iran has capabilities to lay naval mines remotely. One platform for example is the Fajr-5 MLRS that has naval mining configurations. I'm sure they have more platforms for the same role.

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So if you see mine laying ships getting destroying, don't believe it means Iran can't mine the strait anyways.
 
The Saudi Al-Hadath news outlet, citing an Israeli source, claims that the Americans might join in on the strikes on Hezbollah's infrastructure in northern Lebanon (Beqa'a & Ba'albek)

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