April 12 cannot come soon enough.
However, I imagine there's a chance that Orbán will adopt the Maduro strategy and declare himself the winner with fake results regardless of the actual vote.
@latinlover would Fidesz have the ability and willingness to pull that off?
It's complicated. First, I'll explain how Hungary's elections work; it's weird but not that hard to comprehend.
Parliament has 199 seats. They are chosen in two ways:
-106 seats for the local districts. This is simple, the country is divided into 106 districts. Each district elects one person, whoever gets the most votes wins the seat, it's winner takes it all. You can only vote for the local district if you live there. If you're a Hungarian who lives outside Hungary you can only vote for the party list, if you're a Hungarian with a Hungarian address you vote for BOTH the local district candidate and the party list, but you can split your vote; eg. you can vote for TISZA on a local district, and you can vote for FIDESZ on the party list. This obviously makes no strategic sense, although MKKP as an example for a while advocated for only Party votes and not local votes because they have no chance of winning in 99.9% of the districts and their votes would otherwise be basically lost anyway, so their best chance would be to get goodwill from other opposition voters who pity them with a party list vote and direct their voters with the 'useful' votes to a party they sympathize or are allied with. THEORETICALLY if Voting in Hungary was a game of open information you could make it so that you can deny FIDESZ more seats by splitting your vote, but it's obviously impossible to predict results and splitting your vote might end up giving more seats to FIDESZ. This bit is a bit complex.
-There's a "national party list", 93 seats. These seats are distributed proportionally based on party vote share according to the party list votes.
[There's a thing called 'winner-' and 'loser compensation'. It's significant, but it doesn't matter for now - what it mostly does is makes it so that the Party that wins hard wins even harder; of course this in particular is one of the many changes in the system made to benefit FIDESZ, which has been the largest party by a mile these past 16 years. Not his increasingly benefits TISZA.]
FIDESZ cheats. It has always cheated, although it's mostly through media dominance (both state and "independent" media), gerrymandering, campaign finance imbalances, 5000 different constitutional changes tailored to favor the incumbent and last but not least direct voter fraud that takes many shapes.
1. People are getting 'paid' to vote for FIDESZ. It can be literal cash or foodstuffs, they are usually also bussed to the voting stations from state resources. These are mostly poor, rural, gypsy populations. Funnily enough probably the clearest case of
this comes from the 2018 election from Ukraine, Vylok (or Tiszaújlak in Hungarian), an ethnically Hungarian village where the citizens who are also Hungarian citizens naturally have voting rights in Hungary's parliamentary elections. The former mayor was such a retard that he proudly told the reporting Hungarian TV that he organized buses, transporting about 1000 people total to polling stations (corresponding to their fictional Hungarian addresses, see ( 1. B) . In this particular case the Hungarian Supreme Court has found FIDESZ guilty, and their punishment is: a fine amounting to the illusion of a slap on the wrist. Nothing. Justice has been served!
1. B Remember how there's a party list and local districts and how Hungarians who live abroad only get to vote on the Party list? That's not very good for Orban, is it? So what they do is: They make it so that on paper their address is Hungarian: the end result is that there's some shithole in the outskirts of Budapest where there are 100 Ukrainians living (on paper). And they will all vote for that district, bussed in by the mayor of 'Bumfuckvilleskaya'. As a bonus you can use this to transport voters from the most rural areas where you already are guaranteed to win to some of the battleground districts, very useful! Reminder: Most ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine, Romania, Serbia vote for FIDESZ. In 2022 approx. 97% of the Hungarians living in Romania voted for FIDESZ.
2. NER, or the system of state oligarchy (Orban stooges) increasingly control a bigger and bigger slice of the country, more and more businesses. They employ a lot of people. Some of the more
brazen 'business owners' according to whistleblowers are forcing their employees to take a photo of their voting sheets (with the X on Fidesz of course) or they will be fired.
To this problem there have mostly been 2 solutions so far:
-Take a picture of your voting sheet with a FIDESZ x. Then proceed to put an x everywhere else. Draw cocks on it. Write "Fuck you gypsy nigger" on it and jack off on the voting sheet. Do anything you want, just make sure it will invalidate your ballot.
-
hamisx.com (translated: 'fakex'.com), a site that ai generates and layers an x on top of your empty voting sheet. you screenshot the image, send it to your technologically illiterate boomer FIDESZ liegelord and you lived another day and still have your job even if you vote for someone else.
3. The funniest part: FIDESZ is literally funding opposition parties, as in all of them, except TISZA- strategically what's best for FIDESZ is to have as many tiny parties be in the running as possible; FIDESZ voters will always vote for FIDESZ anyway, so these parties mostly leech away votes from the opposition. For a party to be able to run in the elections they need to get a certain amount of signatures from the populace supporting them (the season of collecting those signatures just ended a day or two ago). What happens is: These tiny parties have a hard time getting the minimum amount of signatures, so FIDESZ activists collect it for them from people on the "FIDESZ-list" who would sign anything you put in front of them. Or they may just illegally use data from past elections signatures, which results in dead people endorsing political parties or people who lets say voted for FIDESZ in a previous election will have their prior FIDESZ signature used to endorse the Hungarian Worker's Party or something.
4. misc. There's all sorts of fun things. FIDESZ has proven to at one point tamper with postal votes, burn opposition ballots, etc. They cheat.
The good news: -They didn't completely capture electoral authority, technically it still is a free election, just not a fair one. If the win is a landslide, it's extremely unlikely that disputes will arise, they will just be waiting in black cars on the Slovakian border like they did in 2022, waiting to 'escape' if shit hits the fan.
-Opposition mobilization is at an unprecedented level. There are eyes everywhere and so FIDESZ has to be extremely careful with fraud- people are there to notice and this time people will actually care.
-Domestic unrest. Modern Hungary is a nation of docile sheep, but there's blood in the water now and I legitimately believe that if FIDESZ just blatantly ignores the election result Budapest will burn. Extremely politically moderate people are already fantasizing about most of these niggers on lamp posts (on roblox squid game server of course, not in real life @my TEK handler)
-I genuinely believe that if they do it it won't be a sternly worded letter from the EU. EU will likely invoke the Nuclear Option articles eventually leading to functionally kicking a member out. We'll be internationally isolated from essentially all of our allies, most of our neighbors. I think in a particularly egregious case the US would distance themselves away. It just doesn't make sense for Orban.
The bad news: -The National Election Office is still aligned with the government filled with FIDESZ goombas. They can leverage this to allow for delayed counts or in case there are superclose districts with disputes they will side with FIDESZ.
-There are opposition delegates that make mass tampering harder, but rural areas could definitely still face the problems I outlined earlier (chain voting, intimidation, etc.)
-The central software is shit. Not only is the central software shit, but Russians have had a backdoor into it for many years now. How significant this is and how bad it can be, I guess time will tell.
What I think will happen: They will run away in case there's a supermajority TISZA victory, there might be a nice log cabin waiting for Orban in Siberia. If there's just a regular TISZA victory, it depends how close it is. If it's neck and neck they might steal it without consequences. If it's clear, then it's going to be 4 years of pissing against the wind for Tisza seeing as every single government apparatus is filled to the brim with FIDESZ lackeys you can't kick out. I don't think he'll just do a Maduro though, to answer your question.
Congrats if you got through my retarded wall of text. You can use this to prove any sub 60iq Ziggernik who tries to tell you that Orban has been democratically elected for the n+1th time now and is rightful Monarch of Hungary by God's grace with all the Hungarians just adoring the guy. What Hungary has at this point is just the rotting carcass of democracy.