A zigger blogger confirms this, including "significant damage" for the minesweeper Valentin Pikul:
Black Sea Fleet Zisters....
The funnies: they weren't Hungarians but ethnic Ukrainians, with the exception of a single person who did have actual Hungarian roots. The POW's were constantly starved, tortured, beaten, forced to sing the Russian anthem starting from their 2022 June capture near Lysychansk. One day they were suddenly transferred to Moscow, where they were told that they are now Hungarians and that's what they will tell everyone moving forward and they should, for obvious reasons, never return to Ukraine again. After claiming a false Hungarian ethnicity they were flown to Budapest where they were meant to be housed until the end of war.
AHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Apparently during a meeting an hour ago
Zelenskyy said "We hope that one person in the EU will not block 90 billion... otherwise, we will pass this person's address to our Armed Forces - let them contact and communicate with him in their own language." Considering Hungary is the only veto on this, it's not hard to guess who he means.
Fucking based.
Looks like Ukraine has a card to play after all:
Full article (behind paywall).
Yeah I'm VERY curious how this plays out given the plan has been to to get Russia away from china using Ukraine as leverage.
Hopefully Hegseth remembers to say thank you.
In less good news:
India is given a license to refine Russian oil for the next 30 days to try to flatten the market spikes. This is a massive life line for Russia. If oil had remained low they were going to have a budget crisis around July and making government pay roll for 2026 was going to be hard.
This isn't going to fix their economy by any stretch, but this means Putin is going to be safe from 5th story windows until 2027 at the earliest.
Positives:
Negatives:
- Russia likely doesn't even need Iranian help much with its Yelabuga drone factory; as @R00T said, Russian components have been found in the Iranian drones.
- Spiking oil prices - good for the Russian petrostate.
- EU now putting pressure on Ukraine restoring the Druzhba pipeline.
- Tomahawks (which should be ACKing ziggies but aren't) and Patriot launcher interceptor stocks running low.
@Ghostse has made two informative posts (1) and (2), the latter one about the Patriot stocks and how it's not that bad after all for Ukraine.
- Less Western media attention for Ukraine; a trend since the Gaza War 2023-, which is compounded by millennials and zoomers generally lacking interest.
This is a good break down.
So what do people expect to be the short/long-term knock on effects from Iran getting gangbanged? How much equipment, assistance were they still sending Russia that is now probably on hold for a little while?
Short term: Minimal.
- Russia was getting drone and missile parts from them (and giving Iran Russian GPS modules it seems). But it wasn't massive and its likely existing deliveries will mean no changes in Russian production for probably 4-6 months; the fact these transfers were dodging sanctions means they were infrequent and clandestine, it wasn't a regularly Tueday Morning delivery, so the logistics chain was set up to tolerate a boom-bust cycle.
Even if the supply is cut off and never resumes, the support wasn't massive or game-changing. Russian drone spam is 20% smaller and now happens every 6 weeks instead of every month.
Russia is the larger country and attacking, they can control the rate of their resource consumption and simply save up required numbers of missiles and drones.
- Small but crucial - Russia will get influsions from oil. Europe is almost certainly going to temporarily relax sanctions to keep everything from spiraling. Russia's 2026 budget was looking bleak after Venezuela, but looks like no longer.
- Difficulty of sourcing reloads for Ukraine's patriots. US stocks are very low. Anything not already committed and delivered is going to be axed or never approved/considered. Patriot can interface with other interceptors not just PAC-3s but they will be shorter range and less effective.
Or another way to put that: unless europe parts with more of their stocks, the Ukraine's air defense is going to need to try to conserve their longest-range most powerful interceptor.
Long term: Who knows. Minimal to Yuge.
- IF there is no regime change in Iran, other than Russia getting some temporary influsion of cash, it won't matter long term. Maybe Russia can raise some funds selling arms to Iran as they try to rebuild their armed forces, but both countries are being fucked economically.
- If there is regime change in Iran, Iran exiting sanctions will absolutely crater oil prices due to supply. There will be no need to get """"""""""""""""turkish""""""""""""""""" oil anymore when they can just buy it right from Iran. India was well will likely stop seeing the value upside in risking sanctions from Russian oil. Russia's budget in 2026 will be fine. 2027 might be choppy, but 2028 is going to be absolutely fucked, sans lube of any kind.
- Russia would lose a grey-market proxy. Supplies from china will harder to come by for Russian industry.
- If there is a American goal maximization dream scenario where Iran regime changes to a government that request - nay, DEMANDS - a US Naval and Airbase be establishe in Iran, this will require Russia to redeploy air defense assets to the remote center of the coutnry. this will stretch their air defense even thinner than current, but unless Ukraine gets a massive delivery of aircraft it won't cause a massive shift in the war.
or tl;dr:
Short/immediate term, favors russia.
Mid/long term, we have to see but all signs point to Russia having a bad time.
Despite best Kuwaitian efforts that one looks rather one sided.
Only way that Israel and USA will lose is if they lose interest.
The US/Jew allience has already won.
@Astro Galactic Megalul covers it very well. The only question is going to be scale of victory, and that we'll find out in a couple weeks when the Iranian peopel are told "Ok, we're done bombing. You are free to show your goverment how much you love fundamentalist Islam".
Maybe they cuck, maybe they don't.
If Trump was competent he would flood Ukraine with military aid after he's done with Iran, why stop with Venezuela and the Middle East if he could dismantle this entire global anti-Western front?
Because it is almost certain that (sadly) Toppling Russia isn't Trumps goal, isolating China is. I had this as a minor possibility last year but i'm pretty sure this is The Qlan(tm). Trump wants a Russia keeping China contained, not one where China can take Siberia, but also one that is completely done fucking around in/near Europe.
It squares the circle of Trump's tsundere act with them.
We all know this a bad choice and what you 've described is the right move, but that doesn't change that 's the direction the wind seems to be blowing.
Trump is toast in the midterms and will be gone in a few years. Empire America wouldn't last long.
cope harder. The US will only have knock over effects given we secured Venezuela.
Heavy Sour crude is back on the menu, baby. Sucks to be in Europe though.
The only thing people will remember in 6 months is Trump
saved israel avenged the Iranian national insult.
They won't remember any specific reasons why Iran is a bunch of terrorists, just that Trump kicked their asses and yeeted Maduro.
It's getting to a stage where gerrymandering (both parties have long done it) won't help much. Not too many voters might worry about International Law, but Iranian and other military adventures won't reduce ever rising prices (inflation figures have for years been meaningless in the West).
It'll lower the cost of oil.
You'd think Europeans would actually support Israel and the USA against Iran since going against a major ally of Russia that manufactures gear for them improves Ukraine's position.
I will shit on the Caliphate of Europistan a lot but in a very real sense its more their normal population.
European governemnts retardedly allowed #FreePalestine to take root in their countries by trying to paint """""""""right wing""""""'"" (lol) parties are being anti-islam, so sucking off islam is good. And allowing their lugenpress to program their populations about "Everything America Does is Iraq".
But there is also a large degree of reality. After four years,
finally actually working to throttle Russian energy sales to the continent is leaving their economies in a rather precarious state. UK in particular is really having issues with their defense budget. Participating in Whack-a-Ayatollah is a budgetary strain they are not able to readily absorb, and even if they are able to, it will be reflect negatively on the incumbant party come elections.
And as lesser considerations.
European nations know they need to be ready for Putin to maybe have a big chimp out.
And then god forbid anything bad happen like Kuwaiti sleeper agents going ham on their forces.
France, which is probably at top of the 'magic quadrant' of the "Least Budget Fucked" and "Actually able to deploy combat forces" graph is disinclined because Iran has been a cheap source of oil for them. They are not looking forward to that gravy train ending, though it looks like Macron is at least deploying defensively.
But I'm going to stop there because while I appreciate the calculus of not contributing forces and being miffed they weren't alerted (so they could leak the plans) I'm utterly livid at our Stalwart European Allies for not allowing use of their bases.
those
