Opinion Will Russia Collapse in 2025?

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By Paul Craig Roberts

Is Putin’s Government Trying to Be a 19th century liberal government in the brutal evil world of the 21st century?

I raise this question not only because Putin has been fighting in his gentlemanly way a war on Russian territory in Ukraine for six months longer without yet winning than it took Stalin’s Red Army to defeat the formidable German Wehrmacht in World War II, and still Putin has not cleared Ukrainian troops from the small Donbas area or from the Ukrainian invasion of Russian Kursk.

Does anyone remember when Putin declared that Russia would never again fight a war on its own territory? Putin has been fighting a war on Russia’s own territory for longer than the Soviet offensive took to drive the German invaders out of Russia.

Moreover, Putin and Lavrov seem to be relying on Trump, not the Russian military, to bring the conflict in Ukraine to an end by agreeing to a mutual security treaty.

None of Putin’s declarations have had any effect on Washington’s determination to further breakup Russia, a constraint on American hegemony. Neither have any of the super weapons that Putin has waved in the face of the West.

Putin’s reliance on useless “agreements,” such as the Minsk Agreement and the Astana Agreement that sunk Syria, together with Putin’s clamps on the Russian military in Donbas, has convinced Washington that Putin will not fight. Washington finds it extraordinary that it took Putin eight years after Washington’s coup in Kiev, which placed a Washington Puppet in charge of Ukraine, to come to grips with the fact that he had a problem, deceived as he was by his useless Minsk Agreement.

After Putin’s intervention in Syria that prevented US President Obama’s invasion of Syria, Putin’s only proactive move, Putin refused to allow Syria to use Russian air defense systems to prevent Israeli attacks on Syria and on Iranian officials. During the entire time of the Russian Air Force’s domination of Syrian air space, Putin permitted Israel and Washington to attack Syrian territory at will.

One wonders why Putin ever bothered to intervene in Syria. The can got kicked down the road for awhile, but the final result was that Putin ran from the Israeli/Washington invasion and placed the Syria he had defended in the hands of Washington and Israel. Putin simply wrote off 8 or more years of the Russian Air Force fighting in the defense of a Syrian government elected by Syrians.

Now the road is open for Israel to occupy Lebanon. No more embarrassing defeats of the vaunted Israeli Army at the hands of the Hezbollah militia devoid of an air force or heavy weapons. Twice the Israeli Army, good only for killing women and children, ran for its life from Hezbollah. But now thanks to Putin, Syria is no more, and there is no way to resupply Hezbollah.

Hezbollah sat on its butt and did nothing while Israel assassinated all of its leaders and commanders and cut off its resupply routes. Inaction always leads to defeat, and Putin’s inaction is leading to Russia’s defeat. In the final days, to avoid this Russian defeat will the button be pushed?

Iran is now also isolated and wonders what trust it can put in Putin, who is so averse to fighting. The Chinese and the BRICS now face the same question. Can Russia be counted on in a showdown?

My critical words do not comprise even a beginning of Putin’s long list of strategic mistakes. I have written about some of them on this website. But many I have not have had a chance to address.

Consider this one for example. Russia is a federation, a weak political structure as it amounts to a tower of babel, and it has Muslim provinces. Putin’s policies in the Middle East have favored Israel over Muslims. Recently, perhaps in response to Israel’s genocide of Palestine, Russian Muslims attacked Jews in a Muslim province of the Russian Federation.

Why there were Jews there is incomprehensible. Putin’s government immediately arrested the Russian Muslims and committed Russia’s Muslim citizens to 7 and 8 years in prison for assaulting Jews. But Putin has done nothing about Israel’s murderous assaults on Palestine and Lebanon and Syria.

So why is Putin on Israel’s side and not on the side of the Russian Federation’s own Muslim citizens? The Putin government’s persecution of its own citizens for their expressed opposition to Israel’s murderous treatment of Muslims raises the question whether Putin is really a nationalist leader or just another Israeli puppet like Washington. Even Trump’s government is overwhelmingly Zionist.

Russia’s Muslim province just gave the green light to polygamy. This is inconsistent with Russian law. Here we have a new breakage in the Russian Federation, a double breakage considering the Russian government taking the side of Israel over the Russian Muslim population. Little doubt the Muslim leaders will have to reverse the decision.

What an extraordinary gift Putin has handed to Washington’s neoconservatives to exploit. Here we have Putin helping Washington’s breakup of the Russian Federation.

Let’s see. During the years Putin has been in office, Washington has established missile bases on Russia’s borders in Poland, Romania, and Ukraine. Ukraine, formerly a Russia friendly country, has become Washington’s ally in a war against Russia, still not acknowledged by the Russian Foreign Ministry, which seems unable to acknowledge any reality.

Putin the Unready was not ready for the US/Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, nor for Washington’s Maidan Coup in Ukraine, nor for the necessary Russian intervention in Donbas, nor for the defense of Syria, host of Russia’s naval and air bases for the projection of Russian power, nor for Armenia, nor for Washington’s ongoing color revolution in Georgia.

Putin is never ready for anything but a worthless paper agreement with his enemies. https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/12/19/is-putin-capable-of-strategic-thinking/

Putin has guaranteed that Washington’s provocations of the Russian government will continue until Putin has only two choices: surrender or war. Putin is capable of surrendering, but will the Russian General Staff take the decision out of his hands? The war will be due not only to Washington’s aggressions but also to Putin’s lack of response and strategic ability.

I have wondered if the shakeup of the Russian generals with departures and indictments are actually moves against corruption as announced or moves against Russian patriots who think they are watching Putin’s sell out of Russia to Washington, just as the CIA and US Joint Chiefs of Staff saw America’s leader, US President John F. Kennedy, selling out America to the Soviet Union.

Putin’s inability to put his foot down, except verbally, is leading the world into nuclear war. Putin’s new weapon lets him pretend the war won’t be nuclear, but it will be, because no one but Putin has the new super weapon. Putin and Lavrov’s warnings about war are always undercut by their own denials. Consequently, Russian warnings carry zero weight.

We cannot look to Trump for peace. Trump has appointed mainly a Zionist government. Having lost Syria, Russia is on the defensive. Part of making America great again is the restoration of Washington’s hegemony, which Putin challenged until he collapsed. What this means is that it is unrealistic to expect Trump to agree to a Ukrainian settlement on Putin’s announced terms.

If Trump agrees to Putin’s reasonable terms, the presstitute media will discredit Trump with his own supporters by declaring him a Putin agent who settled Putin’s aggression on Putin’s terms. Trump will become the President “who lost Ukraine.”

It remains to be seen how much longer the Russian General Staff will tolerate Putin’s ineptitude as a war leader.
 
I certainly hope not, while Russia is far from perfect I can't imagine the levels of hell we'll be made to experience if faggot worship becomes the globally mandated religion.
 
Didn't read but BRICS is going to fail because the I stands for India.
 
Half of the article touches upon plenty of valid points, and I have been asking myself the same thing. Shame that the other half of the article is uneducated bullshit, but eh. Journalists.
Moreover, Putin and Lavrov seem to be relying on Trump, not the Russian military, to bring the conflict in Ukraine to an end by agreeing to a mutual security treaty.
Relying how, exactly? There is no shortage of mediators willing to have a go at peace-making.
None of Putin’s declarations have had any effect on Washington’s determination to further breakup Russia, a constraint on American hegemony. Neither have any of the super weapons that Putin has waved in the face of the West.
Yep. And none of Washington's determination to further breakup Russia have had any effect on Putin. Not sure what the point here is.
Putin’s reliance on useless “agreements,” such as the Minsk Agreement
Yeah. Him going on TV making a shocked Pikachu face followed by "we have been deceived by our foreign partners" is a meme in Russia at this point.
One wonders why Putin ever bothered to intervene in Syria
Military bases for easy access to Africa. Which are still there, by the way, and the new government has agreed to negotiate their continued existence.
Now the road is open for Israel to occupy Lebanon
Russia doesn't care. Not its circus, not its monkeys, all it cares about is the abovementioned bases.
Russia’s Muslim province just gave the green light to polygamy.
Non-binding proclamation by a religious leader that was rescinded three days later under the pressure from secular federal authorities.
Washington has established missile bases on Russia’s borders in Poland, Romania, and Ukraine.
An extremely valid point, but the article fails to mention Finland. NATO borders are now within 50 km from St. Petersburg, the country's second largest city.
Putin the Unready was not ready for the US/Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, nor for Washington’s Maidan Coup in Ukraine
Uh, what? Georgian invasion of South Ossetia was curtailed within two weeks, and Georgia is drifting closer into Russian sphere of influence at the moment, see the most recent elections. The handling of Ukraine, however, was fucked up beyond all reason.
Putin has guaranteed that Washington’s provocations of the Russian government will continue until Putin has only two choices: surrender or war.
We have war at home, literally.
Putin has been fighting in his gentlemanly way a war on Russian territory in Ukraine for six months longer without yet winning than it took Stalin’s Red Army to defeat the formidable German Wehrmacht in World War II
Largely because Stalin mobilized the entire country and Putin is still using paid volunteers (sans the single round of draft two years ago after it became clear Ukraine is going all in). Another draft is likely in 2025, because the volunteer pool has practically ran dry, but in WW2 the entirety of Soviet Union was fighting or working in factories, ~200 million people and not ~300k engaged in the Ukrainian kerfuffle.
It remains to be seen how much longer the Russian General Staff will tolerate Putin’s ineptitude as a war leader.
I'd say indefinitely, but I am not privy to the conspiracies inside the Kremlin, and Progozhin sure pulled a fast one, so we'll see how it plays out.

To sum everything up, a very strange article. One third valid and EXTREMELY hot-button issues, one third inane conjecture and one third typical journalist retardation.
 
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Half of the article touches upon plenty of valid points, and I have been asking myself the same thing. Shame that the other half of the article is uneducated bullshit, but eh. Journalists.

What would you do, if you were Putin?

For the record, I don't think Russia will break up, nor do I see the conflict ending anytime soon.
 
Russia will share the same fate as Europe in my view. A slow continuous decline and utter irrelevance at the world stage. A catastrophic sudden collapse is not on the cards because Putin's Russia is incredibly stable for Russian standards.

A catastrophic collapse would also be a major world security issue because Russia has big stockpiles of nuclear weapons and nuclear material. So the best course of action is to make sure Russia takes enough losses to permanently cripple them on the world stage but not enough to have it all collapse. So far it's going to plan.
 
What would you do, if you were Putin?
Kill myself and make the world a better place Go full Stalin on whoever sold me the idea of engaging NATO via its proxy claiming it would be an easy victory, cull the retarded propagandists whose ham-fisted efforts are doing more harm than good and, again, go full Stalin on corruption within the Ministry of Defense to unfuck the army. Which is still fucked in more than one way even three years later, mind.

Putin should have retired in 2012 instead of declaring himself president for life, things went downhill from there. Barring that, changed power projection model toward economic pressure the same way China does using Russia's resources as leverage and did every possible human effort to increase domestic production instead of saber-rattling. But that ship sailed a decade ago.
For the record, I don't think Russia will break up, nor do I see the conflict ending anytime soon.
Same, although I have reasons to believe it may end in 2025 after all. Putin will have to decide whether he cuts his losses/quits while he is ahead (depending on who you ask) or goes all in with another, much harsher mobilization that will inevitably destabilize the society. He has been taking great pains to make sure an everyday Russian does not get affected by the war in any way until recently, but this may be changing soon.
 
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Saying Russia will collapse as big of a meme as China collapsing. This website also hire the same journalistic experts.
 
It's been:
3 more Days to crush weed dust capture Kiev.
2 More weeks until RuZZiA runs out of bombs.
For almost 3 years now.
 
Russia won't collapse until Putin dies/replaced, then it would be a monumental shit show.
Now the road is open for Israel to occupy Lebanon. No more embarrassing defeats of the vaunted Israeli Army at the hands of the Hezbollah militia devoid of an air force or heavy weapons.
Why the fuck would Israel want a territory without resources in massive debt that's full of Muslims? Plus the cope of "we're the strong side" is unreal.
 
Putin’s reliance on useless “agreements,” such as the Minsk Agreement and the Astana Agreement that sunk Syria, together with Putin’s clamps on the Russian military in Donbas, has convinced Washington that Putin will not fight.
That's the opposite of what's happening. Putin is fighting, in Ukraine, right now and Washington is convinced Putin would want to continue on fighting against every nearby country even if it's part of NATO. If the West was convinced Putin "will not fight" then Putin would have a lot fewer headaches.
Hezbollah sat on its butt and did nothing while Israel assassinated all of its leaders and commanders and cut off its resupply routes.
Hezbollah tries repeatedly attacking Israel and holding people hostage while hoping they could cut some deals with them. They look like they were sitting on their asses because they're incompetent and lack resources, not for lack of effort.

This guy sounds retarded, but it's also entertaining that someone so eager to suck Russia's dick is feeling like Russia's power is collapsed. Russia as a country though really won't collapse as it's not like things can really be a lot worse there. Most I could see happening is some kind of turmoil where Putin feels the need to pull back forces into Russia and proclaim himself the victor for having Moscow still standing, while his adoring admirers cheer on his enormous might. Since it's not like Russia or its fans would ever admit Russia lost or did poorly in any way, shape, or form.
 
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