Opinion Will Russia Collapse in 2025?

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By Paul Craig Roberts

Is Putin’s Government Trying to Be a 19th century liberal government in the brutal evil world of the 21st century?

I raise this question not only because Putin has been fighting in his gentlemanly way a war on Russian territory in Ukraine for six months longer without yet winning than it took Stalin’s Red Army to defeat the formidable German Wehrmacht in World War II, and still Putin has not cleared Ukrainian troops from the small Donbas area or from the Ukrainian invasion of Russian Kursk.

Does anyone remember when Putin declared that Russia would never again fight a war on its own territory? Putin has been fighting a war on Russia’s own territory for longer than the Soviet offensive took to drive the German invaders out of Russia.

Moreover, Putin and Lavrov seem to be relying on Trump, not the Russian military, to bring the conflict in Ukraine to an end by agreeing to a mutual security treaty.

None of Putin’s declarations have had any effect on Washington’s determination to further breakup Russia, a constraint on American hegemony. Neither have any of the super weapons that Putin has waved in the face of the West.

Putin’s reliance on useless “agreements,” such as the Minsk Agreement and the Astana Agreement that sunk Syria, together with Putin’s clamps on the Russian military in Donbas, has convinced Washington that Putin will not fight. Washington finds it extraordinary that it took Putin eight years after Washington’s coup in Kiev, which placed a Washington Puppet in charge of Ukraine, to come to grips with the fact that he had a problem, deceived as he was by his useless Minsk Agreement.

After Putin’s intervention in Syria that prevented US President Obama’s invasion of Syria, Putin’s only proactive move, Putin refused to allow Syria to use Russian air defense systems to prevent Israeli attacks on Syria and on Iranian officials. During the entire time of the Russian Air Force’s domination of Syrian air space, Putin permitted Israel and Washington to attack Syrian territory at will.

One wonders why Putin ever bothered to intervene in Syria. The can got kicked down the road for awhile, but the final result was that Putin ran from the Israeli/Washington invasion and placed the Syria he had defended in the hands of Washington and Israel. Putin simply wrote off 8 or more years of the Russian Air Force fighting in the defense of a Syrian government elected by Syrians.

Now the road is open for Israel to occupy Lebanon. No more embarrassing defeats of the vaunted Israeli Army at the hands of the Hezbollah militia devoid of an air force or heavy weapons. Twice the Israeli Army, good only for killing women and children, ran for its life from Hezbollah. But now thanks to Putin, Syria is no more, and there is no way to resupply Hezbollah.

Hezbollah sat on its butt and did nothing while Israel assassinated all of its leaders and commanders and cut off its resupply routes. Inaction always leads to defeat, and Putin’s inaction is leading to Russia’s defeat. In the final days, to avoid this Russian defeat will the button be pushed?

Iran is now also isolated and wonders what trust it can put in Putin, who is so averse to fighting. The Chinese and the BRICS now face the same question. Can Russia be counted on in a showdown?

My critical words do not comprise even a beginning of Putin’s long list of strategic mistakes. I have written about some of them on this website. But many I have not have had a chance to address.

Consider this one for example. Russia is a federation, a weak political structure as it amounts to a tower of babel, and it has Muslim provinces. Putin’s policies in the Middle East have favored Israel over Muslims. Recently, perhaps in response to Israel’s genocide of Palestine, Russian Muslims attacked Jews in a Muslim province of the Russian Federation.

Why there were Jews there is incomprehensible. Putin’s government immediately arrested the Russian Muslims and committed Russia’s Muslim citizens to 7 and 8 years in prison for assaulting Jews. But Putin has done nothing about Israel’s murderous assaults on Palestine and Lebanon and Syria.

So why is Putin on Israel’s side and not on the side of the Russian Federation’s own Muslim citizens? The Putin government’s persecution of its own citizens for their expressed opposition to Israel’s murderous treatment of Muslims raises the question whether Putin is really a nationalist leader or just another Israeli puppet like Washington. Even Trump’s government is overwhelmingly Zionist.

Russia’s Muslim province just gave the green light to polygamy. This is inconsistent with Russian law. Here we have a new breakage in the Russian Federation, a double breakage considering the Russian government taking the side of Israel over the Russian Muslim population. Little doubt the Muslim leaders will have to reverse the decision.

What an extraordinary gift Putin has handed to Washington’s neoconservatives to exploit. Here we have Putin helping Washington’s breakup of the Russian Federation.

Let’s see. During the years Putin has been in office, Washington has established missile bases on Russia’s borders in Poland, Romania, and Ukraine. Ukraine, formerly a Russia friendly country, has become Washington’s ally in a war against Russia, still not acknowledged by the Russian Foreign Ministry, which seems unable to acknowledge any reality.

Putin the Unready was not ready for the US/Georgian invasion of South Ossetia, nor for Washington’s Maidan Coup in Ukraine, nor for the necessary Russian intervention in Donbas, nor for the defense of Syria, host of Russia’s naval and air bases for the projection of Russian power, nor for Armenia, nor for Washington’s ongoing color revolution in Georgia.

Putin is never ready for anything but a worthless paper agreement with his enemies. https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2024/12/19/is-putin-capable-of-strategic-thinking/

Putin has guaranteed that Washington’s provocations of the Russian government will continue until Putin has only two choices: surrender or war. Putin is capable of surrendering, but will the Russian General Staff take the decision out of his hands? The war will be due not only to Washington’s aggressions but also to Putin’s lack of response and strategic ability.

I have wondered if the shakeup of the Russian generals with departures and indictments are actually moves against corruption as announced or moves against Russian patriots who think they are watching Putin’s sell out of Russia to Washington, just as the CIA and US Joint Chiefs of Staff saw America’s leader, US President John F. Kennedy, selling out America to the Soviet Union.

Putin’s inability to put his foot down, except verbally, is leading the world into nuclear war. Putin’s new weapon lets him pretend the war won’t be nuclear, but it will be, because no one but Putin has the new super weapon. Putin and Lavrov’s warnings about war are always undercut by their own denials. Consequently, Russian warnings carry zero weight.

We cannot look to Trump for peace. Trump has appointed mainly a Zionist government. Having lost Syria, Russia is on the defensive. Part of making America great again is the restoration of Washington’s hegemony, which Putin challenged until he collapsed. What this means is that it is unrealistic to expect Trump to agree to a Ukrainian settlement on Putin’s announced terms.

If Trump agrees to Putin’s reasonable terms, the presstitute media will discredit Trump with his own supporters by declaring him a Putin agent who settled Putin’s aggression on Putin’s terms. Trump will become the President “who lost Ukraine.”

It remains to be seen how much longer the Russian General Staff will tolerate Putin’s ineptitude as a war leader.
 
We have to import a billion streetshitters for the Greater Good of humanity but we can't benefit from bilateral trade with this because uhhh because reasons ok!!1?
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We must prioritize a relationship with Ukraine because it's the world's "bread basket" even though Russia itself exports far more grain but don't look too closely into it goys err guys.
It pains me to say but I have to give this one to groypers and Laura Loomer. There are more sinister forces at work here below the layer of "economic pragmatics".
 
Hopefully, the salt from Null and the Russia Stronk fags on here will be amazing.
I was told in early 2022 that it was over for Russia and they were sending mass deserting conscripts with only shovels to fight and Zelensky and the Ghost of Keeev would inaugurate pride month in Vladivostok. What happened?
 
I was told in early 2022 that it was over for Russia and they were sending mass deserting conscripts with only shovels to fight and Zelensky and the Ghost of Keeev would inaugurate pride month in Vladivostok. What happened?
They’re losing a ton of men, their economy is running on empty, and their only export is camgirl streams. That’s what is happening.

I hope they enjoy Africans.
 
No. The western media has been predicting a russian collapse since maybe 2003 and it never happens. Germany is more likely to collapse in 2025 than Russia. Germany is approaching an economic and political crisis.
 
Didn't read but BRICS is going to fail because the I stands for India.

And because the B stands for Brazil, the R stands for Russia, the C stands for China, and the S stands for South Africa. Reminds me of the old Soviet-era COMECON, which was utterly worthless.

Russia is in bad shape, period. So many places to start, we'll look at demographics. Population aging and shrinking rapidly, as is the birth rate. Life expectancy going down. Like China, Russia isn't evenly developed. Go 20 miles outside a city and you go WAY back. Many country villages still use a communal well, for example. The economy is basically an extractive economy, but not only are some things harder to extract, the outside market for any Russian goods is much smaller now. The Russian conventional military has been badly damaged by the war, and they cannot be sure their nuclear arsenal will all work as advertised.

Will Russia collapse? Depends on what you call a collapse. Personally would like to see the Putin regime collapse, believe it is under strain, and be replaced with a government that would end the war and concentrate on the many other problems the country faces. However, don't see the demographic decline as fixable, just like for more and more countries.
 
No. The western media has been predicting a russian collapse since maybe 2003 and it never happens. Germany is more likely to collapse in 2025 than Russia. Germany is approaching an economic and political crisis.
Which Washington is most carefully watching...
 
Despite all the sanctions, they're still not in the same catastrophic state as Cuba and Venezuela that had less severe ones.
 
No.
Every single Eastern European nation has gone through much worse just last century.
They will be fine in the long run.
The problem for Russia is that while Moscow and Saint Petersburg are an Eastern European Country, the vast majority of the territory they rule over is decidedly not. In a rather huge fit of irony, the Capital of Chukotka, Anadyr, has more in common with the United States township of Nome, then it does with Moscow. And unlike Anadyr, Nome isn't surrounded by the wreckage of a dead empire.
 
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